Romanov Ascendant: What if the Soviet Union survived?

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If so, expect Al Gore to get a sudden rush of right-wing patriots backing him up. Real Americans don't run their cars on commie juice.
Americans cry when Gas prices increase, but to expect them to pay some premium for NATO sourced oil would be more impossible.

We would have market makers crying about Free Trade and Government overreach before All-Gore gets a word off.

The new Soviet OPEC can make a killing using Wall Street by pumping and dumping oil futures, just need a few willing Americans to do insider trading.
 
"Al Gore" as in ditching oil altogether; having most of America dependent on a Soviet-dominant market is a security risk. I'd expect multiple initiatives from the White House and Pentagon to start looking into biodiesel and electric alternatives for pretty much everything.
 
I love this timeline however, the chapter in involving the soviet army soldier. Don't really buy these veterans all of a sudden buying into Islamic radicalisation these people spent the last few years of their life waging a brutal war against such radicals. They have been on the other end of their brutality, brutality that this very timeline has mentioned I don't really see how they would buy into something that likely had killed many of their friends. Though if it is more ideological then I could understand It.
 
I love this timeline however, the chapter in involving the soviet army soldier. Don't really buy these veterans all of a sudden buying into Islamic radicalisation these people spent the last few years of their life waging a brutal war against such radicals. They have been on the other end of their brutality, brutality that this very timeline has mentioned I don't really see how they would buy into something that likely had killed many of their friends. Though if it is more ideological then I could understand It.
I know it might not seem ''realistic'' but it did happen, Shamil Basayev is pretty much what conspiracy theorists think Osama was with his connections to the ISI and CIA and he fought in Afghanistan under the soviets.

Hell a lot attacks against factories in the USSR by Jihadists were done with insider help and men deserted to follow them back.

The founders of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan were soviet soldiers like Juma Namangani who fought in Afghanistan for years.


You also got the credible accusations that Heckmatar, Massoud were both soviets assets in 1975 and stayed that way.
 
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Justinian

Banned
That's a legitimate question, the soviet's did ''win'' kind of actually in OTL, in three years once they started removing the population their was not a single soul left alive or a village standing near the roads to ambush companies and Khad did use chemicals weapons in the water and likely bio (things like diseases) against their own people.

Pol Pot was disturbingly less a messiah/cult leader and group was more or less nexus for centuries of psychotic hatred and rage against the world for Cambodia.




It must be remembered that at 1979 the Khmer Rouge army was a different beast to the pre 1975 army the American faced. The pre-75 army did not compose of the Khmer Rouge alone but was a mixture of force: Khmer Rouge, Sihanouk's FUNK, the Khmer Rumdo. They were also heavily backed by foreign force with the PAVN sending troops to fight alongside them (called sector Đ, later K for Kampuchea) and Soviet, Czech, China supplying them with heavy equipment. Therefore they were a potent force.



The Khmer Rouge army of 1979 was a hollow shell of that army. First, it enjoyed no support with only Beijing backing it (and even then Beijing was in shambles). Secondly, all of its experts were dead as it went through a purge worse than Stalin's, depleting its army of not only experts but also men with experience.



On the other hand you had Vietnam, the little Prussia of Southeast Asia, with one of the world's largest standing army, armed with latest Soviet tech, honed in the recent bloody war with the US, supported by the Warsaw pact. No surprised the Khmer Rouge lost in a week.


But then, they managed to turn the damn war into Vietnam's very own Vietnam. There is a lack of literature on this, seeing both sides were not the book-worm types nor were they the type to respect their opponents and accept their flaws, but suffice to say the war went badly for Vietnam. The "official" number said 15,000 Vietnamese troops were dead, but I highly doubt that. For example in the book "The Winning side", Huy Đức, who had access to state archive, said 100,000 Vietnamese troops were killed during the 10 years in Cambodia.

So yes, a tattered army, a bunch of angry teenagers managing to stop and bog down the toughest, most experienced, best-armed army in Southeast Asia at that time, an army that was expected to go toe-to-toe with China to protect the Soviet union is an army not to be underestimated. The only reason why Vietnam won that war, a.k.a by setting up a regime that is kind of pro-Vietnam and making sure that regime is safe from its enemy, is because Khmer Rouge lost its backers. By the end of 1991 Vietnam was beyond exhausted and if China decided to continue funding the Khmer Rouge, I would suspect the Khmer Rouge would take control in the same manner as the Taliban in Afghanistan


As long as China, US and Thailand can keep funding and apply pressure the war won't end like Hutu and Tulsi conflict is still going on from 1959-till nowadays arguably. Even Vietnam's rather genocidal campaign failed to stop them as long as they have Thailand.

You have a good point on Egypt, while it should be producing tens of thousands of ''freedom fighters'' once the military high ranked remember they will one come back and how they see Israeli collaborators and demand power and to set up a Islamic state with many of likely being killed for their actions against them ( qutb spent years being tortured, a action many still don't forget today) they certainly will keep their options open for offers.

Though I think the West would overlook Taiwan as it's their partners in Asia who bear the highest risk and the current strategy damaged the USSR, but failed to break it so sunk cost.
That's actually very interesting, I never knew that Vietnam had such difficulties in holding Cambodia. Considering the Soviets would be aware of these problems, I'd surmise that they would suggest to the Vietnamese a similar strategy that they employed in Afghanistan. Withdrawing from the countryside, where attrition was the worst. Allowing Pol Pot to reoccupy these areas, and then using Scud and Tochka missiles, as well as air and artillery bombardment to eviscerate them. While Vietnam may be somewhat tired, they would also still have Soviet funding as well. The T-64s they sold would be used perhaps in the development of an indigenous tank design, with soviet funding. If better weapons and more sophisticated air power in your opinion wouldn't be enough to beat the Khmer Rouge, do you think that a Soviet backed intervention, mostly with advanced weapons and advisors to spearhead an effort to destroy the opposition would be enough? It would certainly be a great way to cajole China.
 

Justinian

Banned
@Justinian Did India and Soviet Union renew the Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation that expired in 1991?

Now Soviet and Indian interests fit perfectly together and can be furthered by both in the geopolitical game in the Indian Ocean. India must have felt the economic shock of the gulf war in this TL too unless there have been specific event to avert or drastically reduce it. That event dramatically boosted liberalisation of the Indian economy, which would unless the butterflies are great would still occur, now if the Soviets and the Chinese cozy up, say to current Russia China levels then India will be spooked and turn to the west.
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On the military front we should expect newer infantry weapons that were abandoned in OTL maybe H&K G11 among others. I think we should also expect larger calibre tank guns, maybe NATO goes for the 140mm gun and the Warsaw pact the 152mm gun
I'm going to have a vote, on whether the Chinese or Indians would ally with the Soviets, because it feels to me it is reasonable for it go either way. China is now behind enough, losing ideological credibility and legitimacy; as their adoption of capitalism is increasingly viewed by the leftist elements in it's party as an unnecessary concession, interested in cooperation with the Soviet Union and an implementation of that kind of system. These leftist elements would be backed by at least some element of the PLA. Whereas the nationalist rhetoric of the current leaders, their emphasis of the territorial disputes may help alleviate these pressures. If the Chinese refuse to accept a 2nd position in the Soviet led Socialist World, then the Soviets would definitely renew the treaty.

I'm thinking that the G11 may actually see the light of day, but 140mm and 152mm guns seem a little too rich for the 90's, I'd leave these kind of developments to the mid 2000s at least. Especially as both sides are financially struggling to get all of their forces to the technical standards they themselves have pushed so hard lately.
 

Justinian

Banned
Here's that poll, essentially:

At this point the Chinese Communist Party would be divided, Jiang Zemin would definitely be in a position that he could go in either direction, being anti or pro Soviet. If they do so, The Americans (Perot especially) offer a Faustian Bargain in looking the other way on Taiwan. Considering these circumstances, would China go with the Soviets? (Subsequently harming the Soviet-Indian Relationship) or would they accept the bargain, maintain market socialism and perhaps go to war against Taiwan?

 
I know it might not seem ''realistic'' but it did happen, Shamil Basayev is pretty much what conspiracy theorists think Osama was with his connections to the ISI and CIA and he fought in Afghanistan under the soviets.

Hell a lot attacks against factories in the USSR by Jihadists were done with insider help and men deserted to follow them back.

The founders of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan were soviet soldiers like Juma Namangani who fought in Afghanistan for years.


You also got the credible accusations that Heckmatar, Massoud were both soviets assets in 1975 and stayed that way.
Fair point however nitpick. Osama never fought with he soviets he joined the mujahideen literally right out of university, he fought against not with. Second nitpick and this is really a nitpick. Because while juma fought for the red army this was for barely a year after which he defected to the mujahideena and spent the rest of the war with them. So a fair case of defector.
Anyway nitpicking over
More than happy to concede that it was probably a overreaction on my part.
 
That's actually very interesting, I never knew that Vietnam had such difficulties in holding Cambodia. Considering the Soviets would be aware of these problems, I'd surmise that they would suggest to the Vietnamese a similar strategy that they employed in Afghanistan. Withdrawing from the countryside, where attrition was the worst. Allowing Pol Pot to reoccupy these areas, and then using Scud and Tochka missiles, as well as air and artillery bombardment to eviscerate them. While Vietnam may be somewhat tired, they would also still have Soviet funding as well. The T-64s they sold would be used perhaps in the development of an indigenous tank design, with soviet funding. If better weapons and more sophisticated air power in your opinion wouldn't be enough to beat the Khmer Rouge, do you think that a Soviet backed intervention, mostly with advanced weapons and advisors to spearhead an effort to destroy the opposition would be enough? It would certainly be a great way to cajole China.
It would depend on if China and co thinks Vietnam is wrecked enough, you see Vietnam is ironically seen as the China in indochina except weaker and takes it out on the surrounding countries. If Thailand, Burma, Laos ect think their is no risk of Vietnam maintaining it's puppets in Laos, annexing Cambodia then become the master of a hundred million souls against China's weak point and major potential of expanding into further then yes they can deal.

Vietnam would have to pull it's troops out of Cambodia and start to rebuild their economy that is on Soviet life support but it should be a deal, can't really argue with the doctor near the plug to the machine when their serious afterall and America has been backing a geocidal army against you for decades, your kind of stuck then.
 
Fair point however nitpick. Osama never fought with he soviets he joined the mujahideen literally right out of university, he fought against not with. Second nitpick and this is really a nitpick. Because while juma fought for the red army this was for barely a year after which he defected to the mujahideena and spent the rest of the war with them. So a fair case of defector.
Anyway nitpicking over
More than happy to concede that it was probably a overreaction on my part.
No the people who think Osama was hand picked trained by the CIA and they set up his army against Russia are wrong, though that is much closer to Shamil's story given how his private army got trained by the ISI/CIA in Afghanistan before being sent to Chechnya.

Fair point on Juma though.

Don't worry man, I suppose the best way to think of the unrest is a lot of republics where power kegs, Gorbachev WFTed when he by merely replacing some officials caused a minor uprising in Kazakhstan as decades of resentment flared up, a couple dozen hardcore radicals and scores more wrecking the place might be the way to think of the unrest in the soviet union.
 

Justinian

Banned
A few more ideas for you to consider:

Object 195 was a post-Soviet design from the 90s by Uralvagonzavod and since the Soviets live on I think it would be a more logical idea to consider tanks like Object 477 or 299 which started during the early 80s. With smaller budgets and reforms to downsize and professionalize I think the Object 299 makes the most sense, front engined and turbine powered it served as a basis for a prospective vehicle family which included tank, heavy ifv, engineering, recovery, artillery, and verticle launched atgm carriers. These would be fazed in over several years but would give much needed standardization. I think in the near term you should modernize all T-80s to a uniform standard and give them to the Naval Infantry and Far East divisions like OTL Russia has done while keeping the advanced T-72 variants in the west, and as for the T-90 this was another post-collapse budget friendly tank that wouldn't exist in OTL form. The Object 187 was a very advanced T-72 derivative with a new turret and 2A66M higher pressure 125mm gun, revised front hull armor, and an advanced diesel with a fully automatic transmission: this should be the intierm tank until the 299 family enters service and it can also function as an advanced export tank for more reliable Soviet allies.
187: 299:
View attachment 629799View attachment 629798

Finland at this time still has a treaty with the Soviets where they have to balance procurements between them and the west, so I could see them operating a mix of Gripens and MiG-29s keeping with their history (Drakens and MiG-21s). Keep in mind as well the Soviets sold them relatively high quality equipment and tried to stay on their good side to ensure their neutrality, so maybe we could see them develop greater ties given it's smarter from a political and military pov. The Soviets could invest in their economy and give them favorable trade deals in return for technology, maybe have the Finns offer them the Patria AMV to replace the BTR family , a potentially huge buy that would make them lots of money. In return the Soviets could give them license production of the Object 187 (they used Soviet tanks throughout the Cold War) to replace T-55s and older model T-72s, and MiG-29Ms could be assembled in Finland by Patria like the Hornets were OTL. These would integrate western technology like the Finns did with most of their Soviet equipment and being used competently would show the west the true potential of Soviet weaponry.

These are good points, the object 195 may also end up also being developed into a family of versatile vehicles, but the Soviets also have an access of T-62s and older T-72s that could be easily turned into heavily armoured IFVs. I think a lot of aspects of Object 299 will be incorporated into the 195, the idea of having different modules, an unmanned turret. In fact I might retcon and go with something more along the lines of Object 477, or a mix of both. One note is that I believe the Soviets may move away from gas turbine based engines from experience in Afghanistan, Cambodia and Yugoslavia. But overall this was an informative post and I'm going to keep it in mind, as I polish the last post I made.

With Finland, I could definitely see them being a potential customer for upgraded T-72s, I also could see them selling and allowing the Finns to assemble the MiG-29M in their own country, considering that the US already has a few crashed examples that they must have examined.
 

Justinian

Banned
It would depend on if China and co thinks Vietnam is wrecked enough, you see Vietnam is ironically seen as the China in indochina except weaker and takes it out on the surrounding countries. If Thailand, Burma, Laos ect think their is no risk of Vietnam maintaining it's puppets in Laos, annexing Cambodia then become the master of a hundred million souls against China's weak point and major potential of expanding into further then yes they can deal.

Vietnam would have to pull it's troops out of Cambodia and start to rebuild their economy that is on Soviet life support but it should be a deal, can't really argue with the doctor near the plug to the machine when their serious afterall and America has been backing a geocidal army against you for decades, your kind of stuck then.
I think then it's going to depend on the direction of Chinese foreign policy, as long as the Soviets see China as a threat and vice versa the conflict could continue. The Soviets however also now have the power projection capabilities as well as intelligence forces to destabilize Thailand, Myanmar or etc. In fact I think Myanmar especially would be vulnerable to Soviet power games. Turning Vietnam into as you said the Prussia of South East Asia (Personally love that metaphor) and India into the perfect foil on China's southern flank, India armed with new weapons and airpower to pressure Pakistan to finally concede on Afghanistan.
 

Justinian

Banned
Also I wanted to point out that I want to go with the results of the poll, but if anyone has any well reasoned arguments for why the Chinese would go for the west or the Soviets, I'm absolutely willing to hear them out.
 
No the people who think Osama was hand picked trained by the CIA and they set up his army against Russia are wrong, though that is much closer to Shamil's story given how his private army got trained by the ISI/CIA in Afghanistan before being sent to Chechnya.

Fair point on Juma though.

Don't worry man, I suppose the best way to think of the unrest is a lot of republics where power kegs, Gorbachev WFTed when he by merely replacing some officials caused a minor uprising in Kazakhstan as decades of resentment flared up, a couple dozen hardcore radicals and scores more wrecking the place might be the way to think of the unrest in the soviet union.
Hand picked by cia🤨 i never mentioned that. I was talking about how he hooked up with Abdullah azzam. Using his money to help the muhajideen
 
I think then it's going to depend on the direction of Chinese foreign policy, as long as the Soviets see China as a threat and vice versa the conflict could continue. The Soviets however also now have the power projection capabilities as well as intelligence forces to destabilize Thailand, Myanmar or etc. In fact I think Myanmar especially would be vulnerable to Soviet power games. Turning Vietnam into as you said the Prussia of South East Asia (Personally love that metaphor) and India into the perfect foil on China's southern flank, India armed with new weapons and airpower to pressure Pakistan to finally concede on Afghanistan.
Well Pakistan would kind of prefer a detente with the Soviets is possible and way of preventing themselves from being encircled by a hostile Afghanistan which has been the case for decades, the USSR has helped Pakistan a lot in the beginning (the US were just ignoring them till they went to Stalin and trying to court India), the issue is after Bangladesh with the USSR siding with India, well Zia killed a tense relationship when he started courting the US and inviting Jihadist's around the world to help create a country with religion was the strongest force in society (he failed, it's still semi feudal weird nobility elites that are not very religious or patriotic).

One issue though it's debated how much control Pakistan had over groups fighting in Afghanistan which makes deals difficult.

India is another matter that opens up a major can of worms as they were at the time heavily irredentists.


China could probably have a deal, well that's more an armistice with Vietnam if Camodia is freed though I can't imagine China keeping the one child policy around for long with the threats around them and likely would fund proxies in Myanmar to fight soviet proxies.

Good thing however the USSR while they did fight a bunch of Islamists, they never stepped out of the Muslim world, Thailand, Myanmar, China, all have heavily repressed Muslim populations that A are fairly close to soviet allies, B would like a super powers support as long as they don't bring out the atheism.

Given Iraq, Syria are still in the Sphere and Palestinian cause is still a very strong issue that's leftists overtime they can repair their standing a lot.

Hand picked by cia🤨 i never mentioned that. I was talking about how he hooked up with Abdullah azzam. Using his money to help the muhajideen
Sorry your right more I comapred Shamil to being what Osama is what a lot of people think he was, some CIA agent.

To what Osama actually was, a really wealthy guy out of college fighting who went to fight for his beliefs and funding a bunch of guys like Azzam.
 
Also I wanted to point out that I want to go with the results of the poll, but if anyone has any well reasoned arguments for why the Chinese would go for the west or the Soviets, I'm absolutely willing to hear them out.
Reasons for why China would side for the Soviets.

It would remove one of the greatest threats to China, China is not like the US in that it's border is next to them and you can stroll in some parts. Their is delay for nukes if WW3 where to occur. The PRC owes them a lot and feel skin crawly about Mao at the time and following his commands beyond the grave for communism that involves selling themselves the west feels wrong for a lot of people.

No belt and road project for China, the idea has been thought of in many variations and it means as long as trade is blocked/remains low with the UUSR their dependent on trade with the west, which yes causes paranoia as you can imagine.

Their can be no ''definite'' break up, one of the major things keeping the PRC from being the Wests bitch is they can always pivot to the Soviets. Relations where improving between prior the Afghan issue and every major time their is a problem with the US, it's quite traditional to send feelers out to the USSR, having one option chain you and one only needs to look at Indonesian liquidation of communists to see how their US allies can turn on them.

Likewise if the USSR is having problems with unruly allies like India, Vietnam, North Korea they turn towards China and sometimes worked with them to prevents the West from gaining to much influence such as Vietnam.

Overall even if the two where ever to become enemy's, they would be more frenemies as their always was worry that if the US got to powerful they would both be on the chopping block.

Pakistan would never have to worry about one side of their borders again.

Those are reasons for why the China and the USSR would ally, just from my perspective and issues that would come up down the line.

Edit just for people curious.
 
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I would also add that the early 1990s was also the time when the GATT was being transformed into the World Trade Organization. Something which Chinese market liberals wanted to join. Having a protectionist in the White House will probably torpedo China's ambitions there and will further strengthen the old guard in the party and pull the country more towards the Soviet Union and be more confrontational towards the US.

In OTL China had to join the WTO under very strict conditions and had to eliminate the "iron rice bowl" and privatize a lot of state owned industries. I can't see China making those same concessions in this TL where the Soviet system still exists.
 

Justinian

Banned
Hey how much is the soviet union population growing by
Sorry I almost forgot to address your question, Romanov is essentially playing this balancing act between a growing feminist element in the CPSU and the conservative (and his own belief) that the demographic issues had to be addressed. He did this two fold, one by subsidizing people who had families with better housing, benefits and etc. For example, to get a place in the newer, bigger and more modern apartments, with 3 bedrooms, a family would have to have at least 3 to 4 children. He also started curtailing the right to abortion, which continued but was discouraged either through additional added bureaucracy or artificial shortages. The party line (not to the same extent as Ceausescu I should add) suggested that in an almost nationalist fashion that if women didn't choose a career that benefitted socialist society, she should benefit it by having a lot of children. These efforts did in fact help raise the birthrate from 2.3-2.4 to 2.79 by 1992, but a lot of that could be ascribed to better living conditions also. (OTL the fertility rate actually raised to 2.58 in 1987)
Reasons for why China would side for the Soviets.

It would remove one of the greatest threats to China, China is not like the US in that it's border is next to them and you can stroll in some parts. Their is delay for nukes if WW3 where to occur. The PRC owes them a lot and feel skin crawly about Mao at the time and following his commands beyond the grave for communism that involves selling themselves the west feels wrong for a lot of people.

No belt and road project for China, the idea has been thought of in many variations and it means as long as trade is blocked/remains low with the UUSR their dependent on trade with the west, which yes causes paranoia as you can imagine.

Their can be no ''definite'' break up, one of the major things keeping the PRC from being the Wests bitch is they can always pivot to the Soviets. Relations where improving between prior the Afghan issue and every major time their is a problem with the US, it's quite traditional to send feelers out to the USSR, having one option chain you and one only needs to look at Indonesian liquidation of communists to see how their US allies can turn on them.

Likewise if the USSR is having problems with unruly allies like India, Vietnam, North Korea they turn towards China and sometimes worked with them to prevents the West from gaining to much influence such as Vietnam.

Overall even if the two where ever to become enemy's, they would be more frenemies as their always was worry that if the US got to powerful they would both be on the chopping block.

Pakistan would never have to worry about one side of their borders again.

Those are reasons for why the China and the USSR would ally, just from my perspective and issues that would come up down the line.

Edit just for people curious.
I would also add that the early 1990s was also the time when the GATT was being transformed into the World Trade Organization. Something which Chinese market liberals wanted to join. Having a protectionist in the White House will probably torpedo China's ambitions there and will further strengthen the old guard in the party and pull the country more towards the Soviet Union and be more confrontational towards the US.

In OTL China had to join the WTO under very strict conditions and had to eliminate the "iron rice bowl" and privatize a lot of state owned industries. I can't see China making those same concessions in this TL where the Soviet system still exists.
boredviewer1234's argument is good, and would at least suggest that in Asia a multipolar kind of great power game would start to be played between India, China and Pakistan as well as the regional powers. Ultimately China is going to start to suffer blowback from their support of Islamism, and if the Soviets do what was I talking about earlier in Cambodia (wiping out or at least significantly crippling) the khmer rouge, China would probably start to realize that Soviet technical superiority in military affairs was nullifying their ability to leverage their quantity advantage.

King Nazar's argument is also very compelling, President Perot is going to do whatever he can to avoid outsourcing of industry to Asia. Now to some extent he can't control Japan's business ventures, which were a vital part of the hyper industrializing of South Korea and certain Chinese cities on the coast. The Soviet Union certainly offers a strong source of exports of both resources, consumer goods, armaments and industrial equipment.

However the vote suggests that the majority of people think China would take Perot's bargain. Taking all of this into account, what I think is a realistic course of action is this:

The Chinese offer the Americans assurances, imply that they will make reforms slowly and try harder to maintain human rights. Perot withdraws support for Taiwan allowing China to seize the Quemoy and Matsu Islands from the ROC in 1995. This leads to a minor controversy but other events distract from it. At a certain point, Jiang Zemin agrees to meet Romanov in a summit in Beijing leading to a treaty and 'detente'. The Chinese withdraw their support for Soviet enemies in Afghanistan and Cambodia. The Soviets would make minor border concessions and agree to a trade agreement, and even the construction of a future pipeline. This of course would alienate India, but the Soviets assured them that they were still their primary ally in Asia.
 
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Really enjoying the timeline so far!

On the case of Indo-Soviet relations, what I will say is if Rajiv Gandhi manages to hold onto power and Manmohan Singh still spear-heads the economic liberalisation of India, it may actually be somewhat of a golden opportunity for Soviet technology. So Rajiv Gandhi on many levels was a bit of a technophile (I mean the dude went to Trinity, Cambridge which has a solid mathematical reputation and then went to Imperial College London which is a fully STEM based university) and he spearheaded the creation of various telecommunications industries and is widely credited with introducing the computer to India and it is not to far of a stretch to believe he is a big reason as to why India is now the call centre of the world and has a thriving IT industry.

So liberalisation cannot be avoided, even with a chaotic government but it may offer the Soviets a significant chance to invest in India to set up infrastructure and the like. Gandhi would most likely be very happy to do so, considering the KGB helped to fund him and Congress and so ironically I could easily see an India moving even more right-wing in terms of liberalisation due to the worse impact of the Gulf War while still being in the Soviet bubble especially if the Soviets begin selling the Indians LPG, CNG and other petrochemicals. Soviet investment into the telecommunications industry may allow for the IT boom that happened under Atal Bihari Vajpayee to occur early, perhaps in the mid-nineties and be a major boon for for the Gandhi government - perhaps even ensuring the economic gap between China and India never becomes as wide as it is today. I could also see Gandhi invite and allow for foreign companies like IBM and the like to expand their branches in India in a sort of balancing act to ensure no one nation has complete control over a sector even. This would also give the Soviets a big labour pool to support their endeavours in the field in the future.

Once oil from the Soviet-aligned middle east also begins to flow from Iraq, the availability of cheap oil is going to give the Indian economy a huge boost akin to the noughties while the west suffers under harsher oil prices and the economic argument for staying a liberalised economy in the Soviet sphere might become too strong. It might also allow for a politically much more stable nineties in Indian politics which again would help give stable leadership for India to develop as all license raj policies were rolled back and repealed.

I do think Atal Bihari Vajpayee would still come to power but I have no idea in which direction he would lead India to because the global situation would be so changed.
 
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