Romanov Ascendant: What if the Soviet Union survived?

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So on the topic of The USSR continuous war in Afghanistan and where all the Jihadists keep coming both in the USSR and to fight in Afghanistan, the answer is likely exporting problems.

Not many people know it but the ''Afghan Soviet war'' took place in vast xinjiang area where fundamentalism was nurtured by the PRC, in the Soviet Union itself their were attacks from Afghan raiders since 1985.

Hell Pol Pot and the Khmer rouge where getting tens of millions to keep the war up with Vietnam as China was also pressuring as a way the soviets to keep their proxy alive.
Soviet economic aid in 1978, estimated at between US$0.7 and 1.0 billion, was already higher than Western assistance. By 1982 it had increased to more than US$1 billion annually, close to US$3 million per day, and it remained at this level through the mid-1980s. Who knows maybe Pol Pot will build a empire of blood and pain in Asia.

Given Egypt, Saudi Arabia looked like western puppet in the Gulf war, I'm guessing we will see a turbo version of the SA supporting Islam around the Globe and Egypt needs a release valve for tens of thousands of angry, PTSD ridden broken young men and where better than Afghanistan?

Plus you can borrow some uighurs since their pretty much Uzbeks, refuges from Pakistan can influence the USSR ethnic groups to add more fuel to the fire.

Other things I can see the US doing.

Supporting the insurgency in Punjab because the Indians are allied with godless communists and can hurt the US's second most valuable ally, the ISI of Pakistan. If need be take their side on Kashmir.

Support the many, many insurgencies in North Eastern India as you can rely on China to pressure Myanmar dictatorship to set up base camps, also better treatment for rohingya, not out of kindness but if insurgents need a ''sea'' to escape and hide in and that means creating refuge camp and resettling them from Bangladesh.

Supporting Indonesia's right rule East Timor and possibly expand to papua new guinea if need be keep Indonesia sweet.

Keep China happy no matter what, if need be give them Taiwan.

Take control of Bangladesh and use it as a base against India.

One could expect many of theses' decisions to backfire one but cold war hot blooded actions.
 
I think its possible for the Soviets to basically 'bribe' Pakistan into accepting a political solution in Afghanistan where they recognize the Soviet backed government (as long as state atheism is no longer enforced and there is some kind of unity government involving the moderate opposition). Maybe by offering Pakistan access to cheap central Asian oil from Turkmenistan and propose building a pipeline through Afghanistan into Pakistan. This would make Pakistan invested in the stability of Afghanistan and gain access to a huge amount of cheap oil for its economy and strategic needs. Of course this would annoy the hell out of India and could eventually lead to a strategic realignment in Asia.
 
Chapter Three: Janes Defence 1993

Justinian

Banned
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Developments in Army and Land Technology:
The Gulf War had given both sides in the Cold War the means to test many of their technologies, tactics and strategies. The various weaknesses and strengths were assessed and filtered through the evaluation of both scientists and military officers, leading to many different outcomes. First the lessons made clear to both sides will be examined, the importance of IFF (Identification friend or foe) technology was highlighted, friendly fire incidents racked both the Soviet and American proxies. These technologies were already implemented in fighter jets, but as tanks and other vehicles become more advanced and expensive, combined with the prevalence and newly developing cheapness of digital technologies, make it possible for both to implement this, especially on the vehicles chosen as relevant for retrofitting. The M1A1 and M2A2 for the Americans and the T80U, T-72B, T-72BU, BMP-2D and BMP-3 for example, on the European side nearly all of their vehicles would receive these retrofits, except for the oldest of the reserve equipment.

The importance of electronic warfare, jamming communications as well as tracking, all were emphasized and all developed. The Americans did have an edge in computing technology, but the Soviets did make some forays into cheap but effective solutions into jamming that only the most robust technology, effort and competent NATO commanders could hope to avoid. The Soviet Army was more prepared to fight using older methods, including colour coded artillery rounds, using wired communication, but still had the means to counter jamming to some extent. The Americans definitely developed an edge in tracking, gun stabilization and accuracy, but the Soviets were introducing their own precision guided munitions, partly indigenous, and other aspects inspired by the reverse engineering of dropped unexploded GPS guided bombs. GLONASS guided gravity bombs started appearing in Afghanistan and very selectively Yugoslavia by 93 and 94. The Soviets developed their tracking abilities but they still remained behind, although new variants of their Kh-58 Anti Radiation Missiles had improved in quality. Overall both sides invested heavily into improving their counterbattery technology and command and control abilities, including the use of frequency hoping radios, etc.

Both sides realized the importance of drones, and poured increasing resources into that area as well.


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Soviet and Warsaw Pact Developments:
The Soviets realized firstly how potent of a weapon NATO's airpower could be if unrestrained, so they continued their dual prong approach of land based, multi layered air defence systems, combined with their stronger, more advanced airforce to counter. They saw the power of US precision guided cluster munitions, invested in their own, and in the systems to ensure that they could not only knock out the enemy's artillery, but still have the mass firepower necessary to punch holes in the enemy's lines. They saw some of the faults in their T-72s, and maintained the T-72BU (T-90) and continual upgrade to this standard as the answer. The T-80U series was seen as wasteful, but recieved an update called the T-80UB, in 1992, but the vast majority of the the work of the Kirov Plant and KMDB were to upgrade the rest of the T-80B standard to T-80U and T-80UB standard. The older T-62s were put on firesale, and the lesser advanced variants of the T-64 donated to the Afghan and Yemeni armies. The rest were kept as a reserve and rotated out of frontline units, many sent to second rate divisions facing China or Pakistan. A large donation of some higher quality T-64Bs was arranged to Vietnam and Cuba.

There were now plans to develop a successor to both tanks, it was decided that instead of having two different tanks, the two main manufacturers would compete. This matched the ideological element of self management for better efficiency, and was generally agreed by the Soviet Army, as well as economists that they really could only afford one type of 4th Generation MBT. The Military budget had been reduced in the mid to late 80s, to make build up the computer industry as well as light consumer industry. The Soviet Union's electronic management system had improved the efficiency of the planned economy by a factor of at least 30 percent. But, the tightening of the military budget bristled against the necessary budget for the development of the economy. Slight concessions were made but fortunately for the Soviets the rising price of oil enabled them to make these vast expenditures without pressuring their economic growth too much. In the eyes of the Soviet Army, these expenditures were necessary to ensure that they maintained primacy in land and air power in Asia and Europe.

So KMDB and Kirov would submit the Object 640 (Black Eagle) against Uralvagonzavod's Object 195 (T-95), but some elements of 640 would be implemented into the T-95 would be designed by 1994-1995 and slated for production in 1998.

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The Soviets tactical approach, relying on mobility and emphasizing deep battle doctrine, was updated. To feature more emphasis on precision attacks, on neutralizing enemy air power and exploitation of armour. This required a gradual change institutionally in the Soviet Army as officers were given slightly more authority to act on their own initiative. Overall in the Soviet Army, two categories of soldiers in the combat arms existed, professionals and conscripts. The professionals generally were corporal (equals) and above, and became the core of a class of soldier used to train, instruct and command the conscripts which mostly consisted of privates, or in the case of reservists corporals. Abuse was common, but also deeply punished by officers, many of whom looked to either political or military careers, the benefits associated with those and therefore tried to keep clean units. Corruption wasn't uncommon, soldiers would often steal supplies or food, some were caught, others ignored. (Nothing approaching what happened in the late 90s with soldiers selling entire armories or even tanks disappearing). Rigid political education was maintained to varying degrees of effectiveness. The Soviets adopted the VSR camouflage as a standard, trying to phase out the plain, KMLK, TTsKO uniforms somewhat slowly. But later in the 90s VSR would be developed into 'Flora'. There also existed different variants of these.

The importance of the helicopter as both a means of transport, which was already emphasized by Afghanistan, but also for precision attack as in the Gulf War. The Soviets winded down developing the Mi-28, choosing instead to maintain it's production mainly for export to it's Warsaw Pact allies and customers like Algeria, India and later China. Instead focused on upgrading the Mi-24D, and producing the KA-50 and later the KA-52 series of attack helicopters.

Much work was done on upgrading the IFVs and APCs of the Soviet Army, after the vulnerability displayed during the 70's and 80's proved several design concepts either ineffectiveness or dangerous. Since 1990, the Soviet Army had been replacing the BMP-2 in it's best divisions with the BMP-3, this process continued and expanded. Consequently as new equipment entered the best or frontal divisions, their equipment moved down to the more 'regular' and generally was pushed eastward. The Soviets began to disregard the Chinese military as an actual threat, believing that one or two of their best divisions, and their advanced air power was more than enough to deter the Chinese; and it was as their own development was progressing but much slower (especially than OTL, when Russia sold many advanced technologies to them for hard currency).

The BMP-1Ps and few older BMP-2s that characterized the far east mechanized divisions had more combat power than the Chinese units they faced by far. The BMP-2D was continued in production, but also were massively exported. The BTR-80 was replaced with the BTR-82, and later the BTR-90.

The AK-74M had already begun replacing the AK-74 in front service in 1990, and was also becoming very common, as were new optics, holographic or scopes. The RPG-29 was the mainstay anti tank weapon of the Soviet Infantry, in additional to the disposable RPG-26 and RPG-7 with upgraded ammunition. ATGMs included the Metis-M and Konkurs-M, which were the mainstay and also exported. The 9K114 Shturm was upgraded with the 9M120 Ataka and was produced in an additional AT support role, along with Konkurs-M carrying BRDM-2s.

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The Osa was beginning to be regulated to the far east, or sold off as new Tors continued to replace them in air defence units. The 2K22 Tunguska also began replacing the ZSU-23, although the latter was generally upgraded with Iglas also. The Buk M1 was also emphasized as was the S-300PMU for theater and strategic level air protection. A completely new addition was slated for the 1993 Victory Parade, called the Pantsir-S, and dubbed the SA-22 Greyhound by NATO intelligence.

In the area of artillery, the 9K58 Smerch (BM-30) was lauded and despite it's slow adoption due to budget restraints became a mainstay of the Soviet Artillery Arm, in addition to a self propelled Mortar System called the 2S23 Nona, based on the chassis of the BTR-80. Also notably the 2S19 Msta which was featured in the 1991 Victory Parade. The TOS-1 had proven very useful in Afghanistan, and complimented many pioneer units.

Next update will be the on the west, can definitely use suggestions on that front.
 
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Justinian

Banned
The opening post says Andropov died at the age of 69 (as in OTL) but ITTL Chernenko's regime is skipped. So who led the USSR between Andropov and Romanov?
That's actually a grievous and ridiculous oversight on my part, thanks for noticing it. I'll fix it but I'd say Andropov just ends up living longer.
 
1. I'd say that the Rafale may even enter service sooner, circa 1994 or 1995, with perhaps more than the original orders. Sweden being 'neutral' and not prioritizing military spending to the same degree would result in the JAS-39 coming into service as in OTL, but facing stronger competition.
TTL the Gripen likely gets likely no exports, maybe Finland, which won't be getting Hornets. On the other hand Swedish defence spending was cut down by 40% as a percentage of GDP in OTL. Not happening TTL for obvious reasons
Now the funny thing about the reunification is that is actually ended up costing the west German government billions upon billions, they do in fact have the resources to work with the British, Italians and Spanish. The performance of Soviet fighters in the gulf war would be perceived as similar to the MiG-21s in Vietnam, as dangerously close to equal to NATO level. The Soviet Tank armies in East Germany, Czechoslovakia are armed with newer and better tanks, artillery and etc than those Iraq used to great effect against the US armed proxies, which is something I'll get more into with the land update. But the threat is as severe as ever, and the RAF is even still a factor, especially now that the Soviets have perceived carte blanche to support terrorism in the west. I think all of these threats would encourage cooperation, rather than the splitting, the Panavia Tornado is a good fighter but was becoming outdated, even if modernized.
Not just a matter of money... how much time was lost by German insistence on the MDS2000 radar in OTL? Speaking of Tornado, there was a "Tornado 2000" plan as well in the early 1990s...

2. The initial impulse for the Europeans to Soviet Stealth is in my opinion further cooperation, that even France will eventually be pressured into joining. The Stealth Rafale may be touted as an initial solution to the MiG-37/1.44, Europeans will generally have to accept the fact that they will be without a stealth fighter at least into the early 2000s which will increase the push to work together.
Everyone will be without a stealth fighter at least into the early 2000. No way 1.44 is entering service in the 1990s and the same holds true from F-23.

I'm thinking that these political forces will force through a pan European Stealth Fighter, of both single and dual engine variety, with a carefully constructed plan to give equal subsidies and business to make it politically palatable. It may be first thought to go along the lines of a competition where BAE or Rafale, or etc try to submit, but when this becomes obviously too time consuming and expensive, it's just agreed to collaborate on the development.
Actually a high/low mix makes sense for Europe IMO. Possibly have the British leading development of the twin engine machine and the French of the single engined plane, with shared engines and technologies. This assumes of course the British do not just jump into the American bandwagon which I find entirely plausible and neatly solves the issue. Dassault is leading the European project(s) while BAe is working with the US.
 

Justinian

Banned
So on the topic of The USSR continuous war in Afghanistan and where all the Jihadists keep coming both in the USSR and to fight in Afghanistan, the answer is likely exporting problems.

Not many people know it but the ''Afghan Soviet war'' took place in vast xinjiang area where fundamentalism was nurtured by the PRC, in the Soviet Union itself their were attacks from Afghan raiders since 1985.

Hell Pol Pot and the Khmer rouge where getting tens of millions to keep the war up with Vietnam as China was also pressuring as a way the soviets to keep their proxy alive.
Soviet economic aid in 1978, estimated at between US$0.7 and 1.0 billion, was already higher than Western assistance. By 1982 it had increased to more than US$1 billion annually, close to US$3 million per day, and it remained at this level through the mid-1980s. Who knows maybe Pol Pot will build a empire of blood and pain in Asia.

Given Egypt, Saudi Arabia looked like western puppet in the Gulf war, I'm guessing we will see a turbo version of the SA supporting Islam around the Globe and Egypt needs a release valve for tens of thousands of angry, PTSD ridden broken young men and where better than Afghanistan?

Plus you can borrow some uighurs since their pretty much Uzbeks, refuges from Pakistan can influence the USSR ethnic groups to add more fuel to the fire.

Other things I can see the US doing.

Supporting the insurgency in Punjab because the Indians are allied with godless communists and can hurt the US's second most valuable ally, the ISI of Pakistan. If need be take their side on Kashmir.

Support the many, many insurgencies in North Eastern India as you can rely on China to pressure Myanmar dictatorship to set up base camps, also better treatment for rohingya, not out of kindness but if insurgents need a ''sea'' to escape and hide in and that means creating refuge camp and resettling them from Bangladesh.

Supporting Indonesia's right rule East Timor and possibly expand to papua new guinea if need be keep Indonesia sweet.

Keep China happy no matter what, if need be give them Taiwan.

Take control of Bangladesh and use it as a base against India.

One could expect many of theses' decisions to backfire one but cold war hot blooded actions.
You bring up a lot of good points, on Pol Pot, I imagine just like with how the Soviets took decisive steps to crush the last pockets of resistance in Afghanistan in the late 80s (I mean conventionally, not the use of bio or chemical weapons), they would have probably ended up helping the Vietnamese break Pol Pot's resistance. If not in the 80's, probably by the early 90's.

Egypt is going to end a great recruiting ground for Islamists, but I also have a feeling that the Army is rapidly losing faith in Mubarak, and many of the senior officers have Soviet ties.

Do you think that the West could honestly look the other way on Taiwan to court China?
 

Justinian

Banned
I think its possible for the Soviets to basically 'bribe' Pakistan into accepting a political solution in Afghanistan where they recognize the Soviet backed government (as long as state atheism is no longer enforced and there is some kind of unity government involving the moderate opposition). Maybe by offering Pakistan access to cheap central Asian oil from Turkmenistan and propose building a pipeline through Afghanistan into Pakistan. This would make Pakistan invested in the stability of Afghanistan and gain access to a huge amount of cheap oil for its economy and strategic needs. Of course this would annoy the hell out of India and could eventually lead to a strategic realignment in Asia.
At some point I think they could, Romanov's pragmatism would allow him to make such minor concessions to end the ulceric pain. But I'm wondering if Pakistan could forgive the airstrikes he delivered in the late 80s on the ISI training camps, on Pakistani soil.
 
You bring up a lot of good points, on Pol Pot, I imagine just like with how the Soviets took decisive steps to crush the last pockets of resistance in Afghanistan in the late 80s (I mean conventionally, not the use of bio or chemical weapons), they would have probably ended up helping the Vietnamese break Pol Pot's resistance. If not in the 80's, probably by the early 90's.

Egypt is going to end a great recruiting ground for Islamists, but I also have a feeling that the Army is rapidly losing faith in Mubarak, and many of the senior officers have Soviet ties.

Do you think that the West could honestly look the other way on Taiwan to court China?
That's a legitimate question, the soviet's did ''win'' kind of actually in OTL, in three years once they started removing the population their was not a single soul left alive or a village standing near the roads to ambush companies and Khad did use chemicals weapons in the water and likely bio (things like diseases) against their own people.

Pol Pot was disturbingly less a messiah/cult leader and group was more or less nexus for centuries of psychotic hatred and rage against the world for Cambodia.




It must be remembered that at 1979 the Khmer Rouge army was a different beast to the pre 1975 army the American faced. The pre-75 army did not compose of the Khmer Rouge alone but was a mixture of force: Khmer Rouge, Sihanouk's FUNK, the Khmer Rumdo. They were also heavily backed by foreign force with the PAVN sending troops to fight alongside them (called sector Đ, later K for Kampuchea) and Soviet, Czech, China supplying them with heavy equipment. Therefore they were a potent force.



The Khmer Rouge army of 1979 was a hollow shell of that army. First, it enjoyed no support with only Beijing backing it (and even then Beijing was in shambles). Secondly, all of its experts were dead as it went through a purge worse than Stalin's, depleting its army of not only experts but also men with experience.



On the other hand you had Vietnam, the little Prussia of Southeast Asia, with one of the world's largest standing army, armed with latest Soviet tech, honed in the recent bloody war with the US, supported by the Warsaw pact. No surprised the Khmer Rouge lost in a week.


But then, they managed to turn the damn war into Vietnam's very own Vietnam. There is a lack of literature on this, seeing both sides were not the book-worm types nor were they the type to respect their opponents and accept their flaws, but suffice to say the war went badly for Vietnam. The "official" number said 15,000 Vietnamese troops were dead, but I highly doubt that. For example in the book "The Winning side", Huy Đức, who had access to state archive, said 100,000 Vietnamese troops were killed during the 10 years in Cambodia.

So yes, a tattered army, a bunch of angry teenagers managing to stop and bog down the toughest, most experienced, best-armed army in Southeast Asia at that time, an army that was expected to go toe-to-toe with China to protect the Soviet union is an army not to be underestimated. The only reason why Vietnam won that war, a.k.a by setting up a regime that is kind of pro-Vietnam and making sure that regime is safe from its enemy, is because Khmer Rouge lost its backers. By the end of 1991 Vietnam was beyond exhausted and if China decided to continue funding the Khmer Rouge, I would suspect the Khmer Rouge would take control in the same manner as the Taliban in Afghanistan


As long as China, US and Thailand can keep funding and apply pressure the war won't end like Hutu and Tulsi conflict is still going on from 1959-till nowadays arguably. Even Vietnam's rather genocidal campaign failed to stop them as long as they have Thailand.

You have a good point on Egypt, while it should be producing tens of thousands of ''freedom fighters'' once the military high ranked remember they will one come back and how they see Israeli collaborators and demand power and to set up a Islamic state with many of likely being killed for their actions against them ( qutb spent years being tortured, a action many still don't forget today) they certainly will keep their options open for offers.

Though I think the West would overlook Taiwan as it's their partners in Asia who bear the highest risk and the current strategy damaged the USSR, but failed to break it so sunk cost.
 
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I think its possible for the Soviets to basically 'bribe' Pakistan into accepting a political solution in Afghanistan where they recognize the Soviet backed government (as long as state atheism is no longer enforced and there is some kind of unity government involving the moderate opposition). Maybe by offering Pakistan access to cheap central Asian oil from Turkmenistan and propose building a pipeline through Afghanistan into Pakistan. This would make Pakistan invested in the stability of Afghanistan and gain access to a huge amount of cheap oil for its economy and strategic needs. Of course this would annoy the hell out of India and could eventually lead to a strategic realignment in Asia.
Why would Pakistan, no wait why would the ISI seek peace? As long as the war stays the US and China will keep the money and fighters flowing, for better or worse the CIA and America promised Zia a Islamic empire and it seems it was a offer made in good faith shockingly.



The US while not the winner of the cold war was A a logical choice given who was backing Pakistan, B Afghanistan was backed by the USSR since 1919 and was viewed as a slow annexation for a long time before the soviet army came. That bridge was kind of burnt by Zia.



As long as A Afghanistan continues to attack, create and support insurgent groups and send the afghan to annex Baluchistan, North-West Frontier Province and other areas (first recorded attempt in the 50s and first conflict happened on Pakistan's founding day). B refuse to accept the Durand line their can be no peace.



This conflict was attempted to be solved Bhuto and Mohammed Daoud Khan, it cost him his power arguably, well that back talking the USSR.

That and it's rather doubtful Pakistan can stop given hundreds of thousands of tribals, Islamic students, jihadists from all over Earth, Pashtun nationalists ect went over the border to fight, with the ISI more trying to channel it than create it.

The USSR can keep it's alliance with India intact instead of risking it and just try to keep the bleeding in Afghanistan for now, maybe some detente can be reached if their is risk of ''East Turkistan'' in China if the backlash of their actions catch up with them but it won't stop the conflict.
 

Justinian

Banned
TTL the Gripen likely gets likely no exports, maybe Finland, which won't be getting Hornets. On the other hand Swedish defence spending was cut down by 40% as a percentage of GDP in OTL. Not happening TTL for obvious reasons

Not just a matter of money... how much time was lost by German insistence on the MDS2000 radar in OTL? Speaking of Tornado, there was a "Tornado 2000" plan as well in the early 1990s...


Everyone will be without a stealth fighter at least into the early 2000. No way 1.44 is entering service in the 1990s and the same holds true from F-23.


Actually a high/low mix makes sense for Europe IMO. Possibly have the British leading development of the twin engine machine and the French of the single engined plane, with shared engines and technologies. This assumes of course the British do not just jump into the American bandwagon which I find entirely plausible and neatly solves the issue. Dassault is leading the European project(s) while BAe is working with the US.
I could definitely see Finland getting the Gripen, but that's way off.

Assuming that the squabbles get squashed, especially since they happened in 89 and 90, perhaps by a concession for the Tornado 2000.

Sorry I should have clarified, I didn't mean entering service, but entering production. There would definitely be enough for a Victory Day fly by for '95 or 96.

I'd agree with that, with the Italians and Germans contributing to both. On the latter notion, it'll depend on how much the US is willing to stomach tech sales and transfers to Europe, I figure Perot would be friendly to it but many in the house and senate wouldn't be.
 
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The USSR can keep it's alliance with India intact instead of risking it and just try to keep the bleeding in Afghanistan for now, maybe some detente can be reached if their is risk of ''East Turkistan'' in China if the backlash of their actions catch up with them but it won't stop the conflict.
US-Chinese relations were at a low point after Tienanmen and tensions would keep escalating up to the 1996 Taiwan straights crisis. This could provide an opening for the USSR to fully normalize relations with China by offering them weapons (China was under an arms embargo post Tienanmen), energy, trade and resolving border disputes. The Soviets could get the Chinese to put some pressure on Pakistan in exchange for Soviet concessions elsewhere like in Cambodia by ending their support for Vietnam. This would be a major strategic realignment.
 
A few more ideas for you to consider:

Object 195 was a post-Soviet design from the 90s by Uralvagonzavod and since the Soviets live on I think it would be a more logical idea to consider tanks like Object 477 or 299 which started during the early 80s. With smaller budgets and reforms to downsize and professionalize I think the Object 299 makes the most sense, front engined and turbine powered it served as a basis for a prospective vehicle family which included tank, heavy ifv, engineering, recovery, artillery, and verticle launched atgm carriers. These would be fazed in over several years but would give much needed standardization. I think in the near term you should modernize all T-80s to a uniform standard and give them to the Naval Infantry and Far East divisions like OTL Russia has done while keeping the advanced T-72 variants in the west, and as for the T-90 this was another post-collapse budget friendly tank that wouldn't exist in OTL form. The Object 187 was a very advanced T-72 derivative with a new turret and 2A66M higher pressure 125mm gun, revised front hull armor, and an advanced diesel with a fully automatic transmission: this should be the intierm tank until the 299 family enters service and it can also function as an advanced export tank for more reliable Soviet allies.
187: 299:
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Finland at this time still has a treaty with the Soviets where they have to balance procurements between them and the west, so I could see them operating a mix of Gripens and MiG-29s keeping with their history (Drakens and MiG-21s). Keep in mind as well the Soviets sold them relatively high quality equipment and tried to stay on their good side to ensure their neutrality, so maybe we could see them develop greater ties given it's smarter from a political and military pov. The Soviets could invest in their economy and give them favorable trade deals in return for technology, maybe have the Finns offer them the Patria AMV to replace the BTR family , a potentially huge buy that would make them lots of money. In return the Soviets could give them license production of the Object 187 (they used Soviet tanks throughout the Cold War) to replace T-55s and older model T-72s, and MiG-29Ms could be assembled in Finland by Patria like the Hornets were OTL. These would integrate western technology like the Finns did with most of their Soviet equipment and being used competently would show the west the true potential of Soviet weaponry.
 
@Justinian Did India and Soviet Union renew the Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation that expired in 1991?
US-Chinese relations were at a low point after Tienanmen and tensions would keep escalating up to the 1996 Taiwan straights crisis. This could provide an opening for the USSR to fully normalize relations with China by offering them weapons (China was under an arms embargo post Tienanmen), energy, trade and resolving border disputes. The Soviets could get the Chinese to put some pressure on Pakistan in exchange for Soviet concessions elsewhere like in Cambodia by ending their support for Vietnam. This would be a major strategic realignment.
Now Soviet and Indian interests fit perfectly together and can be furthered by both in the geopolitical game in the Indian Ocean. India must have felt the economic shock of the gulf war in this TL too unless there have been specific event to avert or drastically reduce it. That event dramatically boosted liberalisation of the Indian economy, which would unless the butterflies are great would still occur, now if the Soviets and the Chinese cozy up, say to current Russia China levels then India will be spooked and turn to the west.
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On the military front we should expect newer infantry weapons that were abandoned in OTL maybe H&K G11 among others. I think we should also expect larger calibre tank guns, maybe NATO goes for the 140mm gun and the Warsaw pact the 152mm gun
 
Finland at this time still has a treaty with the Soviets where they have to balance procurements between them and the west, so I could see them operating a mix of Gripens and MiG-29s keeping with their history (Drakens and MiG-21s). Keep in mind as well the Soviets sold them relatively high quality equipment and tried to stay on their good side to ensure their neutrality, so maybe we could see them develop greater ties given it's smarter from a political and military pov. The Soviets could invest in their economy and give them favorable trade deals in return for technology, maybe have the Finns offer them the Patria AMV to replace the BTR family , a potentially huge buy that would make them lots of money. In return the Soviets could give them license production of the Object 187 (they used Soviet tanks throughout the Cold War) to replace T-55s and older model T-72s, and MiG-29Ms could be assembled in Finland by Patria like the Hornets were OTL. These would integrate western technology like the Finns did with most of their Soviet equipment and being used competently would show the west the true potential of Soviet weaponry.

The bolded is not strictly true. Finland never was treaty-bound to buy Soviet weapons. The Finno-Soviet Treaty of 1948 was a general agreement about Finland defending itself against Western attack (with *Soviet help*, if needed), which the Soviets used to pressure Finland into following defensive and military policies that did not go against Moscow's interests. There was a practice of balancing defence purchases between the East and the West, but it was an informal Finnish matter, which revolved around practical issues as much as it did on placating the Eastern neighbour and keeping Moscow from suspecting that Finland was "drifting West" by prioritizing Western military purchases.

Practically, then, buying Gripens would not necessarily mean that Finland should by Soviet fighters as well. But it would create an expectation that Finland should buy something Soviet to offset the perceived imbalance. What I think might be realistic for Finland to buy from the USSR in this time frame would be missile armament of different sorts. Anti-ship missiles to replace the chronically ageing P-15 Termit (the Swedish RBS-15 was bought IOTL), AA missiles (both heavier systems and MANPADS) for different branches, AT missiles and missile artillery for the army.

The Finns would certainly consider modernizing their tank arm, too, but I don't believe they would like to start producing what amounts to an untested foreign design domestically. It would seem like a big investment to create the facilities and amass the skills, to build vehicles that might in the end become a costly failure. Modernizing T-72s, or buying some newer model of a tested Soviet tank directly would seem more likely than that. When it comes to licence-building aircraft, the Finns had a lot more expertise and better existing facilities than they would have for building MBTs. By the 1990s IOTL, Finland already had solid, long experience in building aircraft, the experience in building wheeled military vehicles is a newer development since the late 1970s, and we never have built tracked vehicles on our own.
 
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A different OPEC lead by the Soviet Union would become a strategic threat for the US. This organisation can include Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, China, UAE, Nigeria. Hell most Communist aligned countries have massive oil wealth hidden under their feet.

They could collude to keep oil prices high across the world, and force Canada and US to improve its own oil extraction capacity. This could severely hamper NATO budgets for the short-medium term, and as the 2008 crises rolls around the corner may force an increase in socialism in the US or political unrest for the foreseeable future.
 
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