Romanov Ascendant: What if the Soviet Union survived?

[boredviewer1234]

Venezuela is definitely Soviet aligned, but is suffering from political chaos as the various powers within the leftist junta jockey against each other. The situation with LGBT rights would probably have proceeded as it did in the 1980s, generally regarded as a mental illness, however there would be more of a push from within the party to regularize their situation. I find it difficult to believe it would be hard for Romanov and his generation to reconcile this, despite the fact he is an atheist. However, East Germany would probably have a fairly progressive policy, but it would be hard to say if it unofficial or official, because the HIV connotations that were more emphasized in the 1990s.


Pretty much lmao


There would definitely be remnants of CIA programs, that via their pejorative originally given manage to encourage 'anti soviet' political activity in Egypt, and this would probably be focused on the muslim brotherhood. However, without a cooperative President, and the UK's wavering commitment, I couldn't see any major active western support. However, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and etc would definitely be supporting the Islamists, as would the radical terrorist groups that are growing completely unhindered in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

The Egyptian Army is a major factor however, the vast majority of their officers would rather fight a civil war before allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to take control. I would think they may try to appeal to the Soviet Union for assistance.

Good point's man though Egypt surprisingly enough might have a peaceful solution if a agreement was ever reached, that might with some soviet help.

The muslim brotherhood and Egyptian army share a long, complex, love and hare relationship given they were some of the strongest organizations in Egypt and helped shape society, if it were not the fact that some events and the upper officers not wanting to share power and different beliefs in government and foreign policy they would get along quite well given the Muslim brotherhood still has vast sway on Egypt.

Rather than regard of them as fanatics, one of the main splits can be compared to Trotsky and Stalin. The Muslim brotherhood for example wish to put thier upiton vision of socity into practice and expand Egypt by adding Libya, Sudan ect as part of a process of building one nation for Muslims all over the world, continue the struggle with Israel, support Muslims all over the world and combat the racism (sectarian attitude towards different faiths is another thing), wealth equality, ect of Egyptian society. Then got fanatic's like ayman al-zawahiri and that cia double agent Ali Abdul Saoud Mohamed rather than the ones who believe they should be active in democracy and build support and powerbase for their dream through running services like health clinics, education, youth services ect to start building their society.

The Egyptian army views itself and is the foundation of the modern Egyptian state. It believes that it is needed to protect and guide the state and must make pragmatic hard choices in order to enrich and strengthen itself to prevent Egypt from being colonized again. Obviously they like the power and wealth (well upper officers) but their are plenty of Salafists in the army and many hold some sympathy for the Muslim brotherhood. It's why Egypt had so many fighters go to Afghanistan and sold the US soviet weapons'.

One of the major issues that really makes both Islamists and Egyptian nationalists sick to their stomach though is the peace deal with Israel, more explicitly what that deal entails with the Sinai that is almost never talked about instead of Palestine.

Here what it means from article a few years ago about the Sinai insurgency that help explains why the Insurgency will likely never be defeated and Islamists always see Israel as controlling the Egyptian state.

The Sinai Insurgency, Part 4: The Egyptian Military In Crisis - International Review

The Egyptian military, central to Egyptian society and legacy, finds itself mired in crisis in a seemingly endless Sinai insurgency.

international-review.org

On 26 March 1979, the groundbreaking Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty was signed, returning the Sinai to Egypt.25. While the treaty more broadly improved Egyptian-Israeli relations, there are several key components that relate heavily to the current security situation in the Sinai.26. Since the treaty was signed the only major permanent military presence in the Sinai has been the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO). The MFO is an operation force made up around 1,000 personnel from a dozen countries with the largest presence being held by Fiji, United States, Colombia, and the United Kingdom.27. Other than the MFO, Egypt can maintain an Infantry Division in Zone A along the West Coast along with four border security battalions in that same Zone A.28. Since the rise in violence, Israel has granted several temporary measures to the Egyptian armed forces, allowing them to deploy additional forces into the peninsula to combat militants but often restricting them to very specific zones of operation.

Granted the author still fails to find it strange that there are multiple foreign countries dictating the Egyptian government where and how many troops to deploy in their own nation and would make anyone question a nation's sovereignty or how the Sinai can ever be developed if Egyptian army which controls the economy and public services can't be deployed...well if Egypt ever got Soviet support that would enable them to change the situation by reasserting sovereignty would likely bring all sections of together for a while, it does not hurt of course pan Arabism does have a have presence of political Islam attached to it and would deprive the CIA of a large source cannon fodder, sorry I mean freedom fighters.

 

[ChadMachine999]

There would definitely be remnants of CIA programs, that via their pejorative originally given manage to encourage 'anti soviet' political activity in Egypt, and this would probably be focused on the muslim brotherhood. However, without a cooperative President, and the UK's wavering commitment, I couldn't see any major active western support.

OTL proved that the Muslim Brotherhood didn't need western support to seize power, holding onto it is a diffrent thing though.

 

[Justinian]

OTL proved that the Muslim Brotherhood didn't need western support to seize power, holding onto it is a diffrent thing though.

In a democratic election, but not against the Egyptian Army

 

[Alexniko]

The Three Kings and their Conversation.

October 1st 1993. 17:23. East Berlin, Marx Memorial University Hospital, Special Wing

All three men could speak Russian, it came easier to Milosevic than Honecker's , which sounded artificial, accented and overly academic. But that could forgiven, because for a german at least he had a sense of humor. Romanov was an older man but no older than Honecker, Milosevic was on the way to recovery. Fucking Croat Scum... Milosevic made a toast to Honecker "You've proven to be a friend to me while I've been here, I havent known you long but I see you as a good man and an even better communist. I toast to you proving those frauds (charlatans) wrong!" Milosevic downed the high grade vodka down without blinking. Romanov who had been quiet lately seemed to forget whatever was troubling him as he clacked his shot glass against the table. Honecker couldn't help but shudder, but years of diplomacy with Russians had trained his gag reflex, but apparently not his liver. Romanov looked at him "Absolutely! Honecker, your accomplishments and service to your people make mine look like nothing." They both knew that was wrong, but Honecker appreciated that he would say that. Honecker replied "You, don't have to illustrate an artistic picture for me. I am beginning to come to terms with it. But Grigory, let me say, there were times I doubted we could hold on. The imperialists, the capitalists, it seemed like they almost had us, like the barbarians at the gates of Rome. This new generation" All three men grimaced.

Just as Romanov began pouring another round as he said. "Don't forget Honecker, the communism Marx had promised us is so close, I don't know if I'll live to see it" Milosevic looked at him. "But if the Barbarians were at the gates, you were the one who manned the walls. I drink to that, and to those who come after us, so that communism may one day be achieved." All three men clinked their shot glasses against each other, this round seemed to go down easier than the last. Romanov looked at Milosevic and chuckled "I was in a bad mood since I came back from the south." He paused "I gotta admit, when I read the report of what occurred, I had a good laugh" Honecker even smiled, not even looking for permission as he had been trained to do all those years ago. Milosevic looked down and pretended to feel shame, while he put his eyes at his feet, Romanov rolled his eyes at Honecker, who had to suppress another laugh. Romanov slapped Milosevic "No need to feign shame, I've done and seen much worse. I can't tell you what I'd do to avoid a defeat let alone letting me die for some perverse scum's satisfaction. Let's have one more round, for her" Milosevic looked up and nodded, maybe he did feel a slight bit of shame.

As hours passed, Milosevic retired, according to his doctors he shouldn't have been drinking at all. Honecker and Romanov talked, of the good old days, Romanovs predecessors, how they all used to laugh about Brezhnev. Romanov asked him how his lips tasted and they both laughed. Honecker wasn't supposed to drink either, but he figured what did he have to lose. Their carousing went on, but only because Romanov had an increasingly hard time accepting the loss of this old friend. "Me and you Romanov, we are relics of a different time. You have more time, make sure you prepare, prepare the... the... next series of people err.. generation for the future. They have no idea Romanov, the price, how it is. We are so close but so far away" Romanov seldom thought of his own mortality. "Don't be so serious Erich, this is not our last conversation. I'll see you tomorrow and the next time, we will be at the beach sharing some rum with Fidel."

Very well indeed. Is an update on the GDR coming?

 

[Justinian]

Very well indeed. Is an update on the GDR coming?

Absolutely, I might put it to a vote though.

 

[Justinian]

I think this more accurately represents what was discussed.

 

[mapuche lautarino]

balkanized south africa ?

 

[Wolf95]

Nice!
But I have one question - what happen currently (1993) in Albania? Who are head of state - Ramiz Alia or someone else, and are there a possibility, that Albania moves to Soviet Bloc (like Yugoslavia did)?

And if you do GDR next leader poll, I suggest Margot Honecker as one leader candidate. She isnt very popular, but I'd like, when there are a hardliner choice.

 

[ChadMachine999]

I know Ross Perot isn't a cold warrior but I hope he keeps the Iowa class battleships and Virginia class nuclear cruisers in service.

 

[Adeimantus]

The white south africans would likely create independent Zulu and Xhosa states to counter the claims of the democratic government and also it would be in their demographic interests to do this. Otherwise they would collapse as too many Africans inhabit the area they control. They would also likely do this after they militarily defeat the ANC government, as the new states would have little legitimacy otherwise.

 

[Alexniko]

And if you do GDR next leader poll, I suggest Margot Honecker as one leader candidate. She isnt very popular, but I'd like, when there are a hardliner choice.

Margot Honecker was no member of the Politburo and had no ambitions to become either General Secretary of the SED or Chairwomen of the Council of Ministers.

The two main candidates to succeed Erich Honecker were Egon Krenz (Secretary for questions of Security, State, and Law at the Central Commitee - He seeked to free socialism from it's distortions) and Günter Mittag (Secretary for Construction, Research and Technological Developement, Trade Unions and Social Policy, and Basic Industry at the Central Commitee - He was a playbook conservative). Both were close to Honecker, yet it was Krenz who acted as Honecker's de-facto deputy. Furthermore, Mittag was disliked by most of the Politburo, and in OTL (after beeing deposed) Honecker proposed Krenz as the new General Secretary of the SED and Chairman of the Council of Ministers. On October 18th 1989 in OTL, the Politburo elected Krenz as the third and last General Secretary of the SED.

So, I think it's clear who has the best chances to succeed Honecker. Krenz was an honest communist but he also recognized the concerning problems the country was facing. In many ways the GDR actually was the most liberal of the Warsaw Pact nations (independent peace and environmentalist groups were allowed to operate legally, including the distribution of pamphlets, the staging of demonstrations and the collecting of signatures) and this would only become more true under Krenz. It was him who personally forbade the use of firearms preceeding the opening of the Berlin wall in OTL.

 

[mapuche lautarino]

Could the Soviet Union support the independence movements in Papua, Baluchistan and elsewhere?

 

[ChadMachine999]

Could the Soviet Union support the independence movements in Papua, Baluchistan and elsewhere?

The last thing the USSR wants is successful secessionists. Especially after the Azerbaijan "incident."

 

[boredviewer1234]

The last thing the USSR wants is successful secessionists. Especially after the Azerbaijan "incident."

Secessionists are always used, if only because a lot of groups want their own state, though them actually getting their state is pretty rare but causing damage is very useful for their backers.

 

[NickOn]

Nice!
But I have one question - what happen currently (1993) in Albania? Who are head of state - Ramiz Alia or someone else, and are there a possibility, that Albania moves to Soviet Bloc (like Yugoslavia did)?

And if you do GDR next leader poll, I suggest Margot Honecker as one leader candidate. She isnt very popular, but I'd like, when there are a hardliner choice.

Judging from the fact that Albania is shown in China's sphere of influence, I think we can safely assume that Alia (or whoever is in charge, I don't see any reason though why it wouldn't be him) decided to re-align with China and continued Hoxha's "Self Reliance" and isolationism line of thinking, hence why we haven't heard from Albania. I don't imagine that Albania will re-align with the USSR because Romanov is a pragmatist and to get Albania back he would need to dump economic resources and foreign aid into the country without much in return. Then again, I can't say for sure, I could be overlooking something and of course I'm not writing the story

 

[Justinian]

Nice!
But I have one question - what happen currently (1993) in Albania? Who are head of state - Ramiz Alia or someone else, and are there a possibility, that Albania moves to Soviet Bloc (like Yugoslavia did)?

And if you do GDR next leader poll, I suggest Margot Honecker as one leader candidate. She isnt very popular, but I'd like, when there are a hardliner choice.

I havent completely decided, but I think Ramiz Alia would maintain control. Aligning Yugoslavia even with a toothless Milosevic in my mind would have alienated them. It also would have enabled Alia to maintain that same Hoxha line of thinking. China even more desperate for formal allies may even enable this practically.

I know Ross Perot isn't a cold warrior but I hope he keeps the Iowa class battleships and Virginia class nuclear cruisers in service.

He would considering the additional kirov class and the upcoming Soviet super carrier, causing consternation in the USN.

Margot Honecker was no member of the Politburo and had no ambitions to become either General Secretary of the SED or Chairwomen of the Council of Ministers.

The two main candidates to succeed Erich Honecker were Egon Krenz (Secretary for questions of Security, State, and Law at the Central Commitee - He seeked to free socialism from it's distortions) and Günter Mittag (Secretary for Construction, Research and Technological Developement, Trade Unions and Social Policy, and Basic Industry at the Central Commitee - He was a playbook conservative). Both were close to Honecker, yet it was Krenz who acted as Honecker's de-facto deputy. Furthermore, Mittag was disliked by most of the Politburo, and in OTL (after beeing deposed) Honecker proposed Krenz as the new General Secretary of the SED and Chairman of the Council of Ministers. On October 18th 1989 in OTL, the Politburo elected Krenz as the third and last General Secretary of the SED.

So, I think it's clear who has the best chances to succeed Honecker. Krenz was an honest communist but he also recognized the concerning problems the country was facing. In many ways the GDR actually was the most liberal of the Warsaw Pact nations (independent peace and environmentalist groups were allowed to operate legally, including the distribution of pamphlets, the staging of demonstrations and the collecting of signatures) and this would only become more true under Krenz. It was him who personally forbade the use of firearms preceeding the opening of the Berlin wall in OTL.

This is an excellent description, although I would say that Erich Mielke is a serious hardline contender, who would try to present himself as the East German Andropov

Could the Soviet Union support the independence movements in Papua, Baluchistan and elsewhere?

Theoretically he could, be he is also trying to balance an attempt at detente, with also supporting more important interventionist efforts in Venezuela, as well as domestic economic development which is still a priority for him.

Judging from the fact that Albania is shown in China's sphere of influence, I think we can safely assume that Alia (or whoever is in charge, I don't see any reason though why it wouldn't be him) decided to re-align with China and continued Hoxha's "Self Reliance" and isolationism line of thinking, hence why we haven't heard from Albania. I don't imagine that Albania will re-align with the USSR because Romanov is a pragmatist and to get Albania back he would need to dump economic resources and foreign aid into the country without much in return. Then again, I can't say for sure, I could be overlooking something and of course I'm not writing the story

This is also a great description of post Hoxha Albanian politics, but as I said above do you think that taking Yugoslavia would alienate them?

 

[NickOn]

This is also a great description of post Hoxha Albanian politics, but as I said above do you think that taking Yugoslavia would alienate them?

Definitely, especially with how much Milošević is a Serb nationalist, I mean in the first place Yugoslavia and Albania didn't even have embassies to each other until 1971. I could see propaganda on the lines of how two nations who betrayed the revolution are aligning to destroy Albania and annex it into Yugoslavia. I don't, though, think it's out of the realm of possibility for Albania to get in such a bad political and economic situation that Alia would be desperate enough to seek Soviet aid (though that would require significant changes in rhetoric away from Hoxha's beliefs and potential reconciliation with Yugoslavia, which would definitely make this a last resort)

 

[Alexniko]

This is an excellent description, although I would say that Erich Mielke is a serious hardline contender, who would try to present himself as the East German Andropov

Thank you very much

Erich Mielke was somewhat of a mistery. Though he was long-standing Minister for State Security, he backed Krenz in 1989 and advocated for a pollitical solution. Mielke actually had good personal relations with Gorbachev in OTL. He was allready 82 years old in 1989 and actually resigned from his post voluntarily in November of that year. I strongly doubt he'd have any ambitions to become General Secretary or Chairman of the Council of Ministers.

 

[Justinian]

Thank you very much

Erich Mielke was somewhat of a mistery. Though he was long-standing Minister for State Security, he backed Krenz in 1989 and advocated for a pollitical solution. Mielke actually had good personal relations with Gorbachev in OTL. He was allready 82 years old in 1989 and actually resigned from his post voluntarily in November of that year. I strongly doubt he'd have any ambitions to become General Secretary or Chairman of the Council of Ministers.

While he is definitely a little too old, that also throws but he was definitely the old school sort of hardliner who might prove to be influential, because seemly his motivation for trying to elevate Krenz in 1989 was more of one born out of a misunderstanding of the practical aspects of putting in a reformer at that point and time. Günter Mittag has all of the problems of Mielke while also being crippled and as you said disliked. But also considering that there was no 'reforming' and Krenz would have unlikely demonstrated any aberrant behavior, I'm thinking that he may be the most realistic candidate due to his youth.

Definitely, especially with how much Milošević is a Serb nationalist, I mean in the first place Yugoslavia and Albania didn't even have embassies to each other until 1971. I could see propaganda on the lines of how two nations who betrayed the revolution are aligning to destroy Albania and annex it into Yugoslavia. I don't, though, think it's out of the realm of possibility for Albania to get in such a bad political and economic situation that Alia would be desperate enough to seek Soviet aid (though that would require significant changes in rhetoric away from Hoxha's beliefs and potential reconciliation with Yugoslavia, which would definitely make this a last resort)

Exactly, plus the Chinese may be able to throw them paltry sums just to maintain that last bit of legitimacy. But overall I think that if Milosevic can't keep up incendiary rhetoric the natural course for Albania would be to return to Moscow's sphere.

 

[ChadMachine999]

Wonder if Kosovo will try to secede.