Romanov Ascendant: What if the Soviet Union survived?
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Adeimantus
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Definitely, it was fairly obvious that Saddam's ego dissipated after Romanov got impatient. Great updates!
True on that, though Iran probably has some of the best terrain for asymmetric warfare in the world.
I would not count on the Sunni/Shia divided on Pakistan, they have the second most Shias in the world to Iran and I believe roughly 30% of their military is shia though both serve together. True the Gulf Kingdoms are very opportunistic, but are terrified of being like Kuwait and losing their power.
Fair point about 1991 no longer being a factor in this timeline.
True but Mountainous terrain can somewhat compensate for artillery with proper fortifications but more they if need to can slowly retreat, Yemen in the case of the civil war the rebels have slowly been pushed back till 2019 thanks to the terrain, and can try to outlast Iraq and buy weapons on the black-market. Plus no one really cares if the Afghans die for Iran.
True about the Persian nationalists, though depressingly their likely to far worse than the Mullahs in that over 90% of Iran is shia, less than 60% of Iran is Persian. My guess Pakistan would Iranian Baluchistan if they collapsed because of their ethnicity and to gain all mineral resources, gas and most of all more coastline for ports, trade and more control of the Strait of Hormuz.
I would say Iraq would need to be either part of Syria and gain more allies and hopefully civil strife to have a hope of fully taking over the nation, they might be able to take Khuzestan though. Though I think it would be a ''minor'' uprisisng of Kurds thanks to the various people who sold out to Saddam and Chemical Ali the butcher of Kurdistan to remind them the cost of revolt. By Minor I mean their might be far more hundreds of thousands try to revolt but more civilians, low ranked soldiers, minor tribes, maybe even PUK because their more pro Iranian and Iranian PKK but the rest of the elites and normally PKK have been bought off. Leaving it more a slaughter than a real threat to Iraqi power.
Fair point on the Soviets' interests.
It's important to Remember that Syria while definitely appreciates having a secure Iraqi flank, they have their own WMD program with countless tons of Sarin as a cheap WMD in case Israel tries to nuke aimed at Israeli cites and their own nuclear program.
Syria and weapons of mass destruction - Wikipedia
Iran and Pakistan have history of cooperating, though if they got promised some land they might turn on them for land.
Pakistan in the Iran–Iraq War - Wikipedia
It's a great alternate history man
Personally I can see this happening however, if China does establish itself as the third superpower its going to very much shift the dynamics of the world and could even depending on how Europe and its union proceedes could result in the decline of the superpower system. The thing I believe is what defines a superpower and the superpower system of politics is global reach and raw might now all three have the last one but when you see so many enter the ring it becomes more difficult for the powers to maintain this global influence, reach and dominance. Now China won't establish this but what it will do is establish to trend that these nations of might can stand on their own if they are at least competitive. It is the single to Europe I believe, that they do not have to rely on American dominance to stay safe if anything it could activily harm the European union.
So if the trend of centralisation within the union is as strong or stronger then otl then we could see a four way establishment which will massively weaken the superpower dynamic and while it may not immediately return the great power system it could begin the trend of it as the various powers become competitive
The EU won't have Easter Europe or Eastern European Emigrents. They will be a lot weaker ITTL then IOTL.
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I'd question that at least in the short to medium run. What's better expanding east or a strongly integrated 12 (or 14 after Malta and Cyprus) ?
Malta and Cyprus probably wouldn't join, they were neutral in the cold war. Also a huge amount of the labor force in Western Europe comes from Eastern Europe. This would significantly weaken Western Europe.
Adeimantus
Banned
Would it weaken western Europe? Definitely. Significantly though? Maybe less economic growth, especially in the UK and Ireland. What would be interesting to know though would be if the OTL decline in birth rates occurs. I assume it would in W Europe but in the Soviet Union it would be pretty stable of not increasing I would imagine. Overall I think Western European governments would try to increase immigration in order to keep ahead of the East, although how accepted this would be by native populations idk, as is in the 90's when there was little anti immigrant sentiment.
Unlikely, limited migration would be a thing, but large amounts of immigration would hurt relations with the WP nations. And such conflicts would look very bad for the CCCP, as Romania's defiance did historically.
No, his wikipedia bio says he was born into a Russian Peasant Family.
Grigory Romanov - Wikipedia
Chapter Four: A Tragic Comedy
Justinian
Banned
All Quiet on the Caucasian Front Part IV:
September 8th 1993, 3:45. Frontal Element of the 35th Guards Rifle Regiment, Somewhere near Gorgaz, Southern Caucasian Mountains
Fedor and Dimitri were in a slightly dug trench under a BMP-3, what had proceeded in the hours before had stunned them. Earlier, as they rode atop their BTR-80, driving down the mountainous roads cleared by the tank in front of them, just as the sun began to set, they witnessed something very few people could either complain, brag or envisaged witnessing. The sky was filled with missiles and rockets, brilliant explosions went off nearly everywhere they could see, some only 20 kilometers away, some at least a hundred. They could hear many more, as the sound was carried by the valley. There was a reason why the tank had it's headlamps on. Jets were flying above their head, some pouring rockets, gunfire and bombs into near by areas, before they had even got a shot off. Dimitri watched with a scope he detached from his rifle as an entire village was turned into an absolute crater. Then the heavier planes arrived, lighting vast swathes of the forest on fire, a fire that burned with an ungodly hue, that burned too bright and for too long. All of this was happening as they moved further and further into the mountain ranges. It was a perfectly coordinated movement, well planned and executed. They made easy progress to all of their objectives, the only enemy force they encountered appeared to be an abandoned bunker, covered with bundles of grass, well camouflaged. Dimitri pointed out there were probably dug out holes next to it, and he could vaguely tell where the camouflaged trench line would meet the tree line. Fedor asked him how he knew, he couldn't see that even when he looked out of his scope, Dimitri said because that's exactly how he would have done it.
If they had progressed to within 300 meters of that bunker, they would have been enveloped by multiple fields of fire, several different directions for RPGs to he flung at them, probably at the frontal vehicle. Then they'd start hitting us with mortars, or anything heavy, make use of our shock and try to break our ranks. Instead, the rebels were intersected by heavy artillery fire, extremely disorganized, and nearly any armed group immediately pulled back further in land, further in forest to escape, if they even had a chance to. Second Lieutenant Gurgen said we made great progress, found us some good ground to make camp. He said he wanted us to sleep either inside or under the vehicles in case of mistakes or shrapnel. We'd have to take turns doing sentry but the word from up high was that they wanted us to rest, to get some sleep. For Fedor, and even Dimitri that proved difficult, having been so stimulated by the days events. Eventually they did pass into sleep, for 2 or three hours at at time, they volunteered to take the 3 to 4 AM slot.
The next few days were spent going from each burnt out hole, destroyed or in tact town and systematically ensuring it was clear. By the 14th The perimeter was becoming smaller as in some cases units from the north were beginning to get into 40 or 50 kilometer ranges of each other. The rebels had sustained serious casualties, but had anticipated a massive response. They built bunkers, earth works, and a lot of false camps and fake vehicles. However, they could not anticipate the losses that the precision technology, good recon and even the local civilians who had sold them out had allowed for serious attrition. But in many cases, where the geography favored they made their stand. When vehicles or soldiers would be exposed, they would use sporadic sniper fire, RPG attacks, and in several cases, an ATGM attack was followed by a well executed attack from multiple directions. They often operated in the way that Dimitri described, but usually with more trees and foliage, or massive mountains to give them cover. When or if that unit, was left without an operable tank, was immediately targeted by repurposed 30mm guns, HMGs, accurate rifle fire, mortars and RPGs. The rebels did this 11 times in the last 8 days. There were at least 138 soviet KIA, with several vehicles either heavily damaged or completely destroyed, and this slowed progress down in some areas. The Soviet Army continued to press on, reinforcing units that came under fire and plying the enemy with airstrikes and artillery. It seemed as if they were not interested in giving a fight until geography stunted most of the Soviet advantages, it appeared as if the rebel commanders and groups intended to fight to the death.
This continued until the 23rd when the last major concentrations of rebels had been driven deep into the forest, but were most definitely encircled. During this process, KGB units attached to the MVD who controlled all of the major exits and routes of the region, generally tried to check the identity of everyone who fled. They arrested quite a few suspects, but others made it through, some using fake documents, others simply slipping by in the night, managing to evade the patrols. Major General Grigorev had moved his mobile HQ closer and closer, inspecting front line regiments and sharing many of their hardships. His best morale booster, was the fact that both he and the men could tell increasingly that this mission was almost over. Grigoriev was increasingly nervous, as was Yanayev, as he had planned for this campaign to be over by the time the General Secretary would return from Iraq.
Note: I didn't include Soviet Friendly Fire Casualties during this campaign, which may have increased during night fighting, but were overall lessened by the previously mentioned emphasis on IFF and GLONASS.
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