Romanian WI: Operation Tidal Wave a success

August 1, 1943: Operation Tidal Wave, aka the Treetop Raid, strikes at the Ploiesti oil complex.

Ploiesti was the largest oil center in Axis Europe. The city was surrounded by a six-mile-wide ring of refineries, cracking towers, and storage tanks, a complex that produced more than half of all Hitler's oil. It was an obvious and tempting target... so Hitler sent one of his best men to defend it: the brilliant Luftwaffe General Alfred Gerstenberg.

Gerstenberg is one of the least appreciated geniuses of WWII. His defense of Ploiesti was inspired. To give just a few points:

-- He set up a highly flexible and reactive defense, able to protect Ploiesti against attack from any point of the compass and to deal with novel tactics (like the "treetop" low-altitude bombing that the Americans adopted).

-- He set up a hardened command post outside of Bucharest, with the most advanced C&C technology available, to coordinate flak, fighters, and ground response. All Luftwaffe sectors were supposed to do this, but Gerstenberg's was an order of magnitude better than anyone else's.

-- He added completely novel techniques, most notably the famous "caterpillar" -- a train full of AA guns, that could be quickly moved on rails to the axis of an attack. The caterpillar alone shot down ten Liberators and wounded many more.

-- Gerstenberg recognized that his job was not just military but industrial, his purpose being not just to defend Ploiesti but to keep its production up. So he went far beyond his orders and rebuilt much of the complex. For instance, he used thousands of Soviet POWs to build a pipeline network connecting all the major wells and refineries. If one was knocked out, the oil could be rerouted and shunted elsewhere. He moved as much machinery as possible underground, built blast walls everywhere, and generally turned Ploiesti into a much, much harder target.

-- He also recognized the heavy political aspect of his job: he had to compete with other Luftwaffe sectors, including the bottomless pit of the Eastern Front and the increasingly beleaguered home front, for fighters, pilots, and guns. In this sharp-elbowed conflict Gerstenberg had the sharpest elbows of all; he was able to outcompete the other sectors and consistently skim off the best for the defense of Ploiesti : lots of guns, lots of planes, and ace pilots. This was true even though Ploiesti had come under attack only once -- a small raid in the summer of 1942.

-- Finally, he had a keen tactical instinct. When the first reports came in of a big flight headed north for the Balkans, he promptly and correctly guessed it was coming for Ploiesti . True, this was the most reasonable and attractive target. But because the Americans were flying low, they disappeared from both radar and observation for much of their flight. The other sector commanders were in doubt about where they were going. Gerstenberg guessed Ploiesti , and guessed right. When the American bombers came in, his gunners were mounted and ready.

As a result, the American attack on Ploiesti was something less than a vast success. True, the Americans did a lot of damage; two refineries were completely destroyed, and millions of gallons of gasoline went up in smoke. But actual production was barely dented. (1)

The Americans had tried to surprise the defenders with novel tactics, coming in low and attacking from the west rather than the south. But Gerstenberg, himself a creative thinker, was ready for creativity in others; he wasn't surprised, his defenses were strong in all directions, and the attackers flew into a terrifying storm of flak under a canopy of furious enemy fighters. The Americans took such ghastly casualties -- losing almost a third of their planes in that single mission -- that they didn't attempt another attack on Ploiesti for nine long months. By which time Romania was only a few months away from leaving the war anyway.

Okay, so. Let's replace Gerstenberg with General Dumm. Yes, Hitler and Goering would naturally send their best to Ploiesti , but neither of them were flawless judges of competence and character, and General Dumm has an impeccable Nazi record and extremely good hair.

Dumm sets up air defenses, but does none of the things listed above; no caterpillar, no specialized command post. He passively takes what Goering gives him, so he ends up with a lot fewer guns and fighters, and pilots who are perhaps not all that. And when the Americans appear and then disappear, he decides they must not be going after Ploiesti anyway.

As a result, Tidal Wave is a smashing success. Instead of being dinged, output is severely damaged -- cut 50% or more.

Now, by August 1943 Germany was already getting a lot of its gasoline -- including pretty much all its avgas -- from synthetic plants. But at this point Ploiesti still accounted for something like 30% of Axis production. Cut that in half, and you reduce the total by ~15% until the damage is repaired -- which, absent Gerstenberg's careful advance planning, could take some months. It's not war-ending, but it's definitely going to get noticed.

Now what?




Doug M.


(1) Part of the problem was that the refinery complex was only running at about 60% capacity. Tidal Wave damaged about 45% of the complex, with severe damage to about 15%. However, Gerstenberg's pipe system meant that oil could be quickly rerouted to the undamaged 55%. Since the system was only at ~60% capacity in the first place, the actual drop in production was from ~60% to ~55% -- about 10%. And much of that damage was quickly repaired.
 
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