Romania leaves Warsaw Pact, aligns with China

Thande

Donor
Possible (and plausible) or not?

OTL Albania did this in 1960 over Krushchev's de-Stalinisation. Given that Romania seemed to be the most maverick of the Eastern Bloc countries when it came to toeing Moscow's line (or not doing so), could it have followed?

Of course, Albania has the advantage of being separated from the rest of the Warsaw Pact countries by neutral Yugoslavia and pro-American Greece, so Krushchev couldn't have done a Hungary in that case...
 
Possible (and plausible) or not?

OTL Albania did this in 1960 over Krushchev's de-Stalinisation. Given that Romania seemed to be the most maverick of the Eastern Bloc countries when it came to toeing Moscow's line (or not doing so), could it have followed?

Of course, Albania has the advantage of being separated from the rest of the Warsaw Pact countries by neutral Yugoslavia and pro-American Greece, so Krushchev couldn't have done a Hungary in that case...


Thing is, would they be allowed?

The Romanians are sufficiently close to be quickly sorted out, should they leave the straight and narrow.

This also leaves a fairly sizable portion of the USSR's own border (admittedly, the Ukranian SSR, but would that matter) without a buffer.

I know they'll still be communist, but I can't see this being accepted as a reasonable argument in Moscow. They did have purges of 'Titoists' after all.
 
If Romania left the WP, wouldn't it be more logical to align with Yugoslavia? This was not an option for Albania due to historical reasons. I'm not sure what the state of affairs between Romanians and Yugoslavs were.

Why would USSR be threatened anyhow. Who were the Romanians buffering the Soviets from, the Bulgarians? LOL.
 
I would have to agree that Romania probably gets the treated the same way as Hungary and Czechoslovakia did; not neccessarily because Romania leaving the pact is a threat to Soviet security in and of itself, but because if the Soviets might worry about establishing a bad precedent.
 
I would have to agree that Romania probably gets the treated the same way as Hungary and Czechoslovakia did; not neccessarily because Romania leaving the pact is a threat to Soviet security in and of itself, but because if the Soviets might worry about establishing a bad precedent.

Agreed the Soviets would probably move into the country especially if this occurs during the period of the Brezchnev Doctrine.
 
If Romania left the WP, wouldn't it be more logical to align with Yugoslavia? This was not an option for Albania due to historical reasons. I'm not sure what the state of affairs between Romanians and Yugoslavs were.

I don't think that realignment with Belgrade would be any more profitable. It depends on when it happens of course, but Stalin had purges of suspected 'Titoists', and if we wait until Brezhnev is about, he'll just go nuts.


Why would USSR be threatened anyhow. Who were the Romanians buffering the Soviets from, the Bulgarians? LOL.

It doesn't really matter that much. It's a chink in the armour, and as Chengar Qordath said: it could act as a precedent. Hungary, Poland, Czechoslavakia could all attempt to 'do a Romania'.

The easiest way to prevent that happening? Don't let the Romanians 'do a Romania'.



If we could employ butterflies which gave the Bulgarians leaders similar to OTL's Romanians, that might stand a better chance. It's the only Warsaw Pact country (barring the DDR, and that's a special case) that doesn't share a border with the USSR.
 

Sargon

Donor
Monthly Donor
Seems unlikely for all the reasons already put forward. The only way to possibly deter a Soviet move on Romania is to have a joint public declaration with China when the re-alignment is announced saying that any attack on Romania would be regarded as one on China too, and the Chinese would retaliate from their part of the world. And I can't see the Chinese going for that seeing as they don't gain that much from it.


Sargon
 
I'm not sure what the state of affairs between Romanians and Yugoslavs were.

Relations were pretty good and there was considerable cooperation (the J-22 fighter-bomber, the Iron Gate hydro plant). This doesn't mean that either side was willing to put its life on the line for the other.

Why would USSR be threatened anyhow.

Why wouldn't they be? The big enemy to the east has allied with the little rival to the west. Hungary and Czechoslovakia were invaded for less.
 
Letting Romania escape means a loss of power and control and I suspect the Overlords in Moscow would not approve.

The only way the Soviets wouldn't try to stop this is if the costs of doing so outweigh the benefits (the possibility of an expensive war) or if they're actually incapable of doing so (some major economic crisis or a worse Afghanistan, perhaps).

And a chink in their armor? Did the Soviet leadership really believe they needed to control everything that bordered on them or bordered with someone who bordered on them to avoid being attacked (by WHO?) or was that just their excuse?
 
Did the Soviet leadership really believe they needed to control everything that bordered on them or bordered with someone who bordered on them to avoid being attacked (by WHO?) or was that just their excuse?

Stalin really was that paranoid and Brezhnev came up with the doctrine on the issue. I don't know about Khrushchev, it seems that he might have been willing to let Hungary go neutral.
 
Stalin really was that paranoid and Brezhnev came up with the doctrine on the issue. I don't know about Khrushchev, it seems that he might have been willing to let Hungary go neutral.
Yeah, Khrushchev Rarely Let on about it but that Whole Cuban Thing Kinda Freaked him out ...

In a Lot of Ways he was Almost an Early Edition of Gorbachev After that ...

Probably Why The Politburo Eased him Out of Office, But During The Mid-60s there was a Little Used Window of Opportunity for Ship-Jumpers!

:D
 
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