This has been an idea of mine for a very long time, so I figured - why the hell not?
First though, a bit of OTL background:
In 1913, Bulgaria was getting its ass kicked in the Second Balkan War.
Sensing an opportunity, Romania invaded Bulgaria in order to obtain a border region between the Danube and the Black Sea coast (southern Dobruja, a.k.a "the Cadrilater").
The Bulgarian army was fully committed at the time and there was no resistance to the Romanian invasion - Romania had 0 casualties from enemy action (but ~5000-6000 from disease), making this an as close as perfect analogue to a controlled experiment of how fast the Romanian army could advance into Bulgaria.
The Romanian army crossed the Danube on the night of 14th-15th of July at threee points, with the western-most one being Oryahovo, Gigen in between and Nikopol the easternmost one. It is my belief that they didn't cross further west (and thus close to Sofia) due to a fear of Bulgarian troops, then currently on the Serbian front, intervening.
After the landing, cavalry would push forward in all direction whilst the infantry tried to catch up. Let's look at their performance:
The troops from Oryahovo reached Ferdinand (now called Montana) on July 18th, marching over a distance of 78km, an average of 19.5 km / day
This force then headed to Belogradchick to the west, where they linked up with the Serbians on the 25th of July.
144km in 10 days, for and average of 14.4 km/day
Meanwhile, the forces from Gigen and Nikopol headed to Vratsa, a 99km advance, which they completed on July 20th, averaging 16.5 km/day
As time was running out, the cavalry was unleashed, racing towards the outskirts of the Bulgarian capital of Sofia.
(fun fact - Sofia was also the first capital in history to have been overflown by hostile enemy aircraft, as the Romanian air force conducted photoreconnaissance and dropped propaganda leaflets)
I'm unsure which route (or even if both) the cavalry took, but I'm going to assume it was the main road (highlighted blue), which would put them at a rate of advance of 31.6 km/day.
At this point in the story, Bulgaria threw in the towel.
So, here is my mini-TL.
- Romania agrees with Entente demands for an invasion of Bulgaria before moving on to Transilvania
- as a precondition, Romania demands that the Salonik front be reinforced
- Salonik front is reinforced by units taken out of the Sinai
- Bulgarian preemptive offensive against the Entente at Salonik fails due to increased Entente forces present there
- Romania declares war on the Central Powers and invades Bulgaria with the following plan:
- The plan goes ahead, and Hindenburg is quoted as saying:
- Bulgaria tries to strip its southern front, but fails to extricate any significant amount of units due to the planned Entente offensive
- A desperate attempt by Bulgarian forces to block the Romanian advance at Vratsa fails
- German and Austrian reinforcements are held up at Nis and fail to reach Sofia in time
- After a short but bloody battle, Sofia is taken, 22 days after the initial landings, on the 19th of September
- As more units are pulled from the line, the Salonika front collapses, and Entente units surge forward to the north, linking up with the Romanians shortly afterwards
- Bulgaria surrenders
- German counterattacks fail to dislodge the new Entente front
- By December, combined Entente forces have defeated the Ottomans in the Battle of Adrianople/Edirne, causing the fall of Enver Pasha's government
- the new Ottoman government signs an armistice with the Entente, allowing (among other things) Entente ships and troops to cross the Turkish Straits
So, any thoughts?
Would the Austro-Hungarians throw in the towel ITTL's version of the Sixtus Affair? If they don't, how long can the Central Powers hold on?
First though, a bit of OTL background:
In 1913, Bulgaria was getting its ass kicked in the Second Balkan War.
Sensing an opportunity, Romania invaded Bulgaria in order to obtain a border region between the Danube and the Black Sea coast (southern Dobruja, a.k.a "the Cadrilater").
The Bulgarian army was fully committed at the time and there was no resistance to the Romanian invasion - Romania had 0 casualties from enemy action (but ~5000-6000 from disease), making this an as close as perfect analogue to a controlled experiment of how fast the Romanian army could advance into Bulgaria.
The Romanian army crossed the Danube on the night of 14th-15th of July at threee points, with the western-most one being Oryahovo, Gigen in between and Nikopol the easternmost one. It is my belief that they didn't cross further west (and thus close to Sofia) due to a fear of Bulgarian troops, then currently on the Serbian front, intervening.
After the landing, cavalry would push forward in all direction whilst the infantry tried to catch up. Let's look at their performance:
The troops from Oryahovo reached Ferdinand (now called Montana) on July 18th, marching over a distance of 78km, an average of 19.5 km / day
This force then headed to Belogradchick to the west, where they linked up with the Serbians on the 25th of July.
144km in 10 days, for and average of 14.4 km/day
Meanwhile, the forces from Gigen and Nikopol headed to Vratsa, a 99km advance, which they completed on July 20th, averaging 16.5 km/day
As time was running out, the cavalry was unleashed, racing towards the outskirts of the Bulgarian capital of Sofia.
(fun fact - Sofia was also the first capital in history to have been overflown by hostile enemy aircraft, as the Romanian air force conducted photoreconnaissance and dropped propaganda leaflets)
I'm unsure which route (or even if both) the cavalry took, but I'm going to assume it was the main road (highlighted blue), which would put them at a rate of advance of 31.6 km/day.
At this point in the story, Bulgaria threw in the towel.
So, here is my mini-TL.
- Romania agrees with Entente demands for an invasion of Bulgaria before moving on to Transilvania
- as a precondition, Romania demands that the Salonik front be reinforced
- Salonik front is reinforced by units taken out of the Sinai
- Bulgarian preemptive offensive against the Entente at Salonik fails due to increased Entente forces present there
- Romania declares war on the Central Powers and invades Bulgaria with the following plan:
The Plan:
1.
First crossing is just south of Vidin in the west, from where that force is to advance 40km west, to the Serbian border, and then split up into two, aiming to reach the Berlin-Constantinople railway at Nis and/or Aleksinac. Cavalry out in front, pushing as fast as their horses can go. The objective is to block the railroad, preventing the CPs from reinforcing the Bulgarians. They aren't expected to last very long, but they don't have to either - even delaying German reinforcements by a week or two would be sufficient.
80.000 men
2.
To the east along the Black Sea shore, another force is to push south, taking the border city of Varna and its crossings over the Varna Lake in a coup de main. This force is to be reinforced by Russian units, and a lot of propaganda is to be made in Russian media of how they will march to Constantinople. The objective is to draw as many Ottoman formations to this feign, allowing the main thrust to succeed.
20.000 men, later reinforced to ~50.000
3.
Generally lower-quality formations are to hold the Carpathian mountain passes. Each blocking force is to be bolstered by a few regular companies in order to prevent unexpected collapses. Austro-Hungarian forces are relatively sparse in Transylvania, but the possibility of a German force arriving and pushing through the Prahova Valley unto Bucharest cannot be discounted
50.000 men
4.
This will be the main thrust - two landings across the Danube are to be made, at Lom and Oryahovo. These forces then converge on Vratsa, and then push on towards Sofia on two axis of advance. Once Sofia is taken, Bulgaria is expected to sue for peace. Should the Bulgarians significantly weaken their front against the Entente to the south in order to meet this new threat, then it's expected that that front would collapse, allowing Entente forces to reach Sofia from the south.
Absent reinforcements, Sofia is expected to fall within 11-12 days, well before German reinforcements can arrive, especially if the push into Serbia reaches the only railway Germany would have available in time.
450.000 men
- The plan goes ahead, and Hindenburg is quoted as saying:
(slightly edited OTL quote)It is certain that so relatively small a state as Rumania had never before been given a role so important, and, indeed, so decisive for the history of the world at so favorable a moment. Never before had two great Powers like Germany and Austria found themselves so much at the mercy of the military resources of a country which had scarcely one twentieth of the population of the two great states. Judging by the military situation, it is to be expected that Rumania had only to advance where she wished to decide the world war in favor of those Powers which have been hurling themselves at us in vain for years. Thus everything seems to depend on whether Rumania is ready to make any sort of use of her momentary advantage
- Bulgaria tries to strip its southern front, but fails to extricate any significant amount of units due to the planned Entente offensive
- A desperate attempt by Bulgarian forces to block the Romanian advance at Vratsa fails
- German and Austrian reinforcements are held up at Nis and fail to reach Sofia in time
- After a short but bloody battle, Sofia is taken, 22 days after the initial landings, on the 19th of September
- As more units are pulled from the line, the Salonika front collapses, and Entente units surge forward to the north, linking up with the Romanians shortly afterwards
- Bulgaria surrenders
- German counterattacks fail to dislodge the new Entente front
- By December, combined Entente forces have defeated the Ottomans in the Battle of Adrianople/Edirne, causing the fall of Enver Pasha's government
- the new Ottoman government signs an armistice with the Entente, allowing (among other things) Entente ships and troops to cross the Turkish Straits
So, any thoughts?
Would the Austro-Hungarians throw in the towel ITTL's version of the Sixtus Affair? If they don't, how long can the Central Powers hold on?
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