Rockefeller-Romney '68

could Nelson Rockefeller win the Republican nomination in 1968 and could he win the election?

(i picked George Romney as VP because that was his pick on the floor of the RNC)
 
Well, it's unlikely. Doubly unlikely with Romney as VP so I'm killing that part of it.


The most likely POD is twofold: Rockefeller declares early and campaigns hard.

Reagan announces his open candidacy in, uh, May? (If I recall correctly) In front of the Southern association he was at. Let's say he does this because Rockefeller goes early.


With an early announcement Reagan can seize most of the South, with Thurmond holding only a couple states for Nixon (instead of the South as a whole IOTL).

Equally Rockefeller follows a mix of his "electibility" argument of OTL but puts up a strong ground game (for instance, IOTL, Nixon stole half of NJ from the Rockefeller supporting governor) and campaigns openly.


We roll into Miami and Nixon can't win on the first ballot: his Southern and Western support floods to Reagan; his Northern support to Rockefeller.

Deadlock. The base doesn't like Rockefeller, but equally they fear Reagan is just Goldwater redux. Rockefeller talks with Reagan, neither concedes.

Rockefeller moves first: he announces BLANK (conservative, Senator) as his running mate and cracks the Midwestern delegates open.


The party leadership, such as it is, goes to Nixon who holds a fairly large block of delegates. Nixon isn't in this to lose, although he knows he has without a first ballot victory, and decides that beating the Democrats is worth something. Nixon's delegates are instructed to go for Rockefeller and about 2/3s actually do.


Rockefeller is over the top.


General election probably has Wallace do better in the South and the industrial states, but Rockefeller has quite a bit more appeal in the North. It's entirely possible that Wallace blocks any "Humphrey is more appealing to the South than Rockefeller" gambit, and at the same time steals enough blue collar Union Democratic voters in the North to give Rockefeller the win in a bunch of three-ways.

Let's say something like that happens.

Boom: Rockefeller is President. Domestically, given Nixon's lack of concern for what passed, a similar fairly moderate to left series of programs is passed—a little more emphasis on blacks and cities.

In foreign relations, well Kissinger was a Rockefeller aid before Nixon, so things might be pretty similar. China is a big question mark, though.
 
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