ROC keeps Hainan

Likely the Island will become a fortified camp. The Nationalist could expect aid to come from the French and the US during the IndoChina War and Korea.
But Unlike Formosa/Taiwan. The Reds threat of invasion is always a stronger possibility.
 
Likely the Island will become a fortified camp. The Nationalist could expect aid to come from the French and the US during the IndoChina War and Korea.
But Unlike Formosa/Taiwan. The Reds threat of invasion is always a stronger possibility.

but what about in the year 2000s?
china has to build a major naval base somewhere.....
 
I would suspect that by the year 2000 the Island would have become a Nationalist bastion and a thorn in the side of the People's Republic of China.
It might have also discouraged Communist involvement in the French Indochina war perhaps altering the results.
I would doubt that it would become a major naval base by the Nationalist, unless they won the Civil war. Needless to say that if the Nationalist continued to hold it then any Chinese attempt by the PRC into the South China Sea would be threaten.
 
I'd say it's somewhat implausible. Taiwan was a lot closer to Nanjing (The Nationalist capital), it was more practical for the Nationalists escape. At the time, I don't think the Nationalists had the necessary forces to secure both Taiwan and Hainan. Also Taiwan's infrastructure was far more developed, it had a larger population as well. It was more prudent to go for Taiwan. Hainan would most likely lead to a heavy waste in resources, military and otherwise.

Also Hainan is a lot closer to the Mainland than Taiwan, so it would be a lot easier for the PLA to take back even if the GMD did manage to take it first.

In saying that, there were still many Nationalists hiding away in nearby Burma eking out a living and receiving aid from the ROC up until relatively recently. A Nationalist Hainan might lead to a stronger ROC and Nationalist exile.
 
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We've talked about it before. I think this was the most important point:

Well, at 33,920 km2, Hainan would make the Republic of China almost twice as large as it is in OTL, since the size of Taiwan is 35,980 km2. Also, Taiwan, despite being mostly covered with mountains and jungles, still manages to host a population of 23 million, crammed along the Western coastline. Hainan, OTOH, while in OTL being home to 8 million people, is flatter and could realistically accommodate over three times as many people.
 
It makes one wonder if another third party, break away state could come about on Hainan, independent from both the ROC and PRC. Though even if that is a highly unlikely possibility, it does warrant a look at how such a situation could have affected the naval policy of the higher ups in mainland China.

Beyond that, what would be the effect on sea claims and all the trouble currently going on concerning the dispute over the Spratly Islands, etc.?
 
I've also considered that and Hendryk also answered:

One possibility for that purpose would involve Li Mi, a Nationalist general whose army, in OTL, fought a protracted rearguard action against the Communists from Burma. If he ends up in Guangdong rather than Yunnan, the logical place for him to retreat to would be Hainan. At that point, however, he would need a good reason to break from Jiang Jieshi. Perhaps he realizes that the Nationalists no longer have any credible hope of reclaiming the mainland and he declares neutrality in the civil war. Even if this is a highly temporary measure that none of the parties involved expect to last for more than a few months, the beginning of the Korean War would instantly bring Hainan within the US strategic sphere, freezing the situation as it stands.
 
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