ROC Hainan?

Mine;

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=33624

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=53051

Main takeaway (from the first thread)

Well, at 33,920 km2, Hainan would make the Republic of China almost twice as large as it is in OTL, since the size of Taiwan is 35,980 km2. Also, Taiwan, despite being mostly covered with mountains and jungles, still manages to host a population of 23 million, crammed along the Western coastline. Hainan, OTOH, while in OTL being home to 8 million people, is flatter and could realistically accommodate over three times as many people.

Tourism is already a major source of revenue for Hainan in OTL, and that wouldn't change (though the bulk of the tourists are Chinese mainlanders). But the island could also easily support the kind of light industry that has done wonders for Taiwan's economic development. One can also imagine a "Silicon Beach" in Hainan--a nexus of high-tech companies implanted to take advantage of low costs, the proximity of cheap labor pools on the mainland, and the pleasant climate. Phuket meets Seattle, if you will.

Another source of revenue in the 1960s and 1970s would likely be a sizeable US military presence. The island is beautifully located just across North Vietnam and near strategic sea lanes in the South China Sea.
 
A first stab at a possible timeline. Let me know what you all think!

1949 - The Chinese Civil War ends with a Communist victory. Refugees and remnants of the Nationalist Army flee offshore to Taiwan, Hainan and a string of minor islands while the PLA mops up resistance on the mainland.

1950 - In late March, the planned invasion on Hainan is delayed by the Communists after an initial probing attack fails. Before the PRC can regroup and carry out an invasion in force, the Korean War has begun, and the United States dispatches task forces to the Taiwan and Qianzhou Straits.

1957 - The People's Republic begins shelling Nationalist held islands off the coast of Fujian and Zhejiang, and the US responds to a ROC request for aid by dispatching substanial naval forces to the Two Straits of Taiwan and Qianzhou. The crisis ends with a truce and the Republic of China winding down fortification building on Matsu, Kinmen and Hai-t'an. The crisis is the last direct conflict between North and South China.

1962 - Cheng Cinematography is established in Hainan and its first film, the Seven Sons of Vengeance, is released in the fall. The Golden Age of Hainanese Cinema begins.

1965 - As America ramps up its involvement in the Vietnam War, South China offers Hainan as a base of operations against North Vietnam and the Vietcong. Over fierce North Chinese opposition, American bombers and warships are stationed in Hainan.

1971 - A Soviet proposal in the UN to recognize the People's Republic of China as the legitimate Chinese nation results in an uneasy compromise. Both the Republic of China and the People's Republic are recognized as UN members, while the ROC cedes its permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Both nations continue to formally regard the state of affairs as temporary.

1972 - US forces begin to withdraw from Hainan as part of the Vietnamization process.

1975 - Chiang Kai-shek dies and is succeeded by his son Ching-kuo. South China begins a long process of democratization and also becomes a popular vacation destination (many American Vietnam veterans return to Hainan, now home to several tropical resorts; the former Linkao Airbase is now Linkao International Airport with non-stop flights to Honolulu and San Francisco).

1976 - South Chinese actor Li Chanyüan (Charlie Lee) stars in Oriental Thunder, a Hollywood film generally regarded as the first of the short-lived Chisploitation genre.

1983 - A three episode arc of the popular American show Magnum P.I. is set and filmed in Hainan.

1985 - Relations between North and South China enter the First Thaw, which lasts until 1994 and sees many restrictions on cross-straits travel and business loosened.

1988 - Chiang Ching-kuo dies. His successor, Tan Tzu-tan, continues his democratization policies.

1989 - Pro-Democracy protests in Beijing are violently crushed by the People's Liberation Army. The Communist government blames the 'uprising' on 'subversive elements' from South China and the United States. The First Thaw ends and a new period of quiet hostility begins.

1994 - South China holds its first direct presidential elections under the shadow of North Chinese missile tests in the Two Straits. US President Jack Kemp dispatches one aircraft carrier battle group to each strait, which leads the PRC to cancel the tests. Adding to the debacle, the KMT candidate sweeps the election against his Republican opponent.

1997 - The United Kingdom surrenders the New Territories to the People's Republic of China, but retains south Kowloon and the island of Hong Kong as a Crown Dependency. Despite speculation in the press, it does not turn over 'old Hong Kong' to the Republic of China.

1998 - The Sino-American Free Trade Act (SAFTA), one of the highlights of President Bill Clinton's one term in office, is signed and narrowly ratified by the US Congress and the South Chinese Legislature.

2004 - Republican candidate K'ung Wangjen is elected President of South China, ending the KMT lock on the highest office. Initial North Chinese fears he might declare formal independence (instead of posing as an 'illegitimate territorial government') prove baseless, and relations slowly improve.

2007 - The Second Thaw begins as official contacts resume between Beijing and Taipei. Cross-straits investment reaches an all-time high, exemplified by the opening of a Tang Automotive (South China's main automaker) factory in Fujian province.

2012 - North China renews its claims to disputed islands in the South China Sea, provoking angry denunciations from South China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. ASEAN delivers a collective rebuke to the People's Republic.
 
It really should be noted that while Hainan would look cool, it was a hotbed of communist support, and the the Li people, the ethnic minority that calls Hainan home, were largely anti KMT. Hell, the help of a local guerrilla force is why Hainan fell, as compared to failed attacks on Jinmen and Taiwan.
 
It really should be noted that while Hainan would look cool, it was a hotbed of communist support, and the the Li people, the ethnic minority that calls Hainan home, were largely anti KMT.

The ROC didn't seem to have much of a problem dealing with dissent. The Communists will be almost entirely cut off from mainland support because of the US Navy, and I don't think it would be impossible to grind them down over time. The Li will be a smaller minority thanks to the influx of refugees from southern China, and probably even smaller as a result of KMT oppression. It will be an ugly, bloody time, but I think preventing a PLA invasion will be enough to keep the Nationalists from being overthrown from within.
 
The ROC didn't seem to have much of a problem dealing with dissent. The Communists will be almost entirely cut off from mainland support because of the US Navy, and I don't think it would be impossible to grind them down over time. The Li will be a smaller minority thanks to the influx of refugees from southern China, and probably even smaller as a result of KMT oppression. It will be an ugly, bloody time, but I think preventing a PLA invasion will be enough to keep the Nationalists from being overthrown from within.

I wouldn't be so sure. Hainan is not that far off from Guangdong province, and Taiwan was really just lucky in the case of its distance from the mainland and its lack of a communist underground. Hainan is close enough that the invasion will be attempted and with the help of the local guerilla's, it would go as OTL 9 times out of 10.
 
I wouldn't be so sure. Hainan is not that far off from Guangdong province, and Taiwan was really just lucky in the case of its distance from the mainland and its lack of a communist underground. Hainan is close enough that the invasion will be attempted and with the help of the local guerilla's, it would go as OTL 9 times out of 10.

The premise here is that the invasion is delayed until after the start of the Korean War and the US Navy is sent to the Taiwan (and, ITTL, Qiongzhou) Strait. After that, any attempted mainland invasion is going to 1) run into the 7th Fleet and 2) provoke a broader war with the United States. Mao didn't try that against Taiwan IOTL and I doubt he would against Hainan here.
 
The premise here is that the invasion is delayed until after the start of the Korean War and the US Navy is sent to the Taiwan (and, ITTL, Qiongzhou) Strait. After that, any attempted mainland invasion is going to 1) run into the 7th Fleet and 2) provoke a broader war with the United States. Mao didn't try that against Taiwan IOTL and I doubt he would against Hainan here.

Oh Okay. Well I still think that Communist insurgencies may be a problem, as resupply will not be that hard of an issue. Also, what would happen, if say in 1970, Hainan declared itself apart of the PRC? Could the resulting loss of prestige for the ROC lead to a declaration of Taiwanese independence?
 
From my second post, here's an interesting figure who could potentially play a role in this:

One possibility for that purpose would involve Li Mi, a Nationalist general whose army, in OTL, fought a protracted rearguard action against the Communists from Burma. If he ends up in Guangdong rather than Yunnan, the logical place for him to retreat to would be Hainan. At that point, however, he would need a good reason to break from Jiang Jieshi. Perhaps he realizes that the Nationalists no longer have any credible hope of reclaiming the mainland and he declares neutrality in the civil war. Even if this is a highly temporary measure that none of the parties involved expect to last for more than a few months, the beginning of the Korean War would instantly bring Hainan within the US strategic sphere, freezing the situation as it stands.

I originally thought of having Hainan be controlled by a third party, an Hendryk suggested that this general be the one to do it in a rival faction to the KMT. For the purposes of this thread, he doesn't have to be as disloyal, but still showing the fractures in the South China government. His Wiki article is quite fascinating since he was involved in insurgencies against the PRC from bases in Burma and Thailand, and involved in drug smuggling there. Perhaps he could do something similar, but with his forces- which numbered at least 7,000- based out of Hainan.
 
In this scenario the PRC's claim to basically all of the South China Sea would be a nonstarter with Hainan "blocking" PRC naval access (and also not being a significant PRC naval & air base. "South China" could be more cooperative in a regional settlement of South China Sea claims/resource sharing which will get it big points diplomatically with the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei etc and possibly lead to development of these resources (and $$ for S. China) sooner. You might see regional naval cooperation & US naval use of Hainan bases for repair/replenishment/R&R similar to OTL Singapore (this is done without a formal US base).

While the PRC would be very unhappy about this, if S, China is a good neighbor & working with regional governments like this, PRC leverage would be limited & they most definitely would not want to have a real clash with any US naval forces in the area. A S. China that includes Taiwan, Hainan, & more offshore islands is more secure because they have more ability to interfere with maritime trade to PRC (in a conflict scenario) & PRC needs free flow of shipping to bring in raw materials including oil and export goods to keep its economy going.
 
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