Mine;
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=33624
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=53051
Main takeaway (from the first thread)
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=33624
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=53051
Main takeaway (from the first thread)
Well, at 33,920 km2, Hainan would make the Republic of China almost twice as large as it is in OTL, since the size of Taiwan is 35,980 km2. Also, Taiwan, despite being mostly covered with mountains and jungles, still manages to host a population of 23 million, crammed along the Western coastline. Hainan, OTOH, while in OTL being home to 8 million people, is flatter and could realistically accommodate over three times as many people.
Tourism is already a major source of revenue for Hainan in OTL, and that wouldn't change (though the bulk of the tourists are Chinese mainlanders). But the island could also easily support the kind of light industry that has done wonders for Taiwan's economic development. One can also imagine a "Silicon Beach" in Hainan--a nexus of high-tech companies implanted to take advantage of low costs, the proximity of cheap labor pools on the mainland, and the pleasant climate. Phuket meets Seattle, if you will.
Another source of revenue in the 1960s and 1970s would likely be a sizeable US military presence. The island is beautifully located just across North Vietnam and near strategic sea lanes in the South China Sea.