ROC Hainan?

That's a possibility up until the moment that diplomatic relations are normalized between the US and PRC. IOTL, the USAF had airbases in Taiwan from which they flew U2 recon flights over the mainland, but the US military presence was removed the instant recognition was withdrawn and switched to the PRC.

But they never had bases from which they based large numbers of jet fighters and naval vessels. Hainan is a perfect base for such during the Vietnam War, and might become more permanent as a result of being bigger in scale.
 
But they never had bases from which they based large numbers of jet fighters and naval vessels. Hainan is a perfect base for such during the Vietnam War, and might become more permanent as a result of being bigger in scale.

Definitely, which is why in that case I don't think the US would rescind recognition of the ROC in TTL.
 
Assuming the Sino-Soviet split still occurs in this TL, it's only a matter of time until the US recognizes the PRC.

What if the PRC goes crazy (i.e. North Korea style) like in Drew's TL? Butterflies, man!

Also, there are plenty of things that are smart to do but are nonetheless not done in geopolitics, and this could be one of them. ITTL 2012 people are still protesting the USA's idiotic refusal to recognize the PRC despite increasing economic ties.
 
Ok, if we're rolling with butterflies here, Hong Kong and Macau might not even go back to either the ROC or PRC at all. The British never bothered with heavy economic investment in the New Territories, so even if the lease expired and the NT were given up, the British might still retain the core of Hong Kong. IIRC, Hong Kong Island and its environs were tossed into OTL's deal because the British wanted to wrap things up without too much fuss so they could shift their full attention to the Falklands crisis.
 
^ Or they might, considering that HK would still have all those Chinese Civil War refugees as in OTL.
 
So are those teeny tiny islands in the middle of the Formosa Strait. They got repeatedly shelled by Chinese arty throughout the '50s and '60s, but the ROC didn't budge a centimeter on them.
 
So are those teeny tiny islands in the middle of the Formosa Strait. They got repeatedly shelled by Chinese arty throughout the '50s and '60s, but the ROC didn't budge a centimeter on them.

The one exception being the Dachen Islands, which led to a voluntary evacuation from there.
 
With Hainan so close, the US can't exatcly park a carrier group between the mainland and the island. I think Red China will likely attempt to storm the beaches eventually.
 
I've heard stories that Communists could swim to Hainan. It's going to be a very weak link there.
Eh it's 9 miles or so, you could swim it if one is very fit, but a man wearing full kit probably could not

Quemoy (or Kinmen, not sure what is proper) and the Matsu are closer to the mainland than that and are under ROC control
 
Thanks for the links! (I'd even posted in one of the threads and forgotten it :eek:)

I really like the notion of Hainan becoming a popular tropical vacation site as a result of the Vietnam War. I'm picturing an old USAF base becoming an international airport, B-52s heading for Hanoi replaced by 747s coming out of Hawaii.
 
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