robert Kennedy Survives

"If I had to choose between cutting back on welfare or space, I'd choose space." "We should slow down the race to the moon." Kennedy would likely continue on the OTL path, but would still want the moon landing to fulfill his brother's 1961 pledge. But space will be cut back along with other discretionary spending in the name of fiscal austerity: once the economy improves with the legislation and programs mentioned earlier, and the budget returns to black by 1973-4, then space will get its money back and more. It may have to wait for Kennedy's Republican successor in 1976, who would likely be Reagan.
 
Now what would happen vis-a-vis Ted? Could he still run for Majority Whip and then maybe even Majority Leader before his brother leaves the White House? RFK will have to stay out of it: he was never a member of the Senate club, nor did he want to be, and interfering can backfire spectacularly, as it did with FDR, Barkley and Harrison 35 years prior.
 
Nothing I didn't know there. NPT is a no-brainer, as is recognizing the PRC. Latin America: sensible, but most of the countries are under military rule and Kennedy's pragmatist enough to know that they are much more stable than their civilian counterparts. Allende is a Communist, and RFK will not work with them, quite the opposite. A Christian Democrat yes, a moderate Socialist a la Bachelet yes, but not a Fidel-backed Communist. They will face Mongoose Mk 2. Mongoose itself may well be reactivated, and this time no one can say no. In regards to China: RFK sounds more prescient than Nixon and other presidents on that market liberalization will not change the totalitarian nature of the PRC.
With regards to Vietnam: once RFK comes into office, he will soon realize, or be advised by his Cabinet, that the only way to get substantive concessions is to use the USAF as a bludgeon- North Vietnam won't take anything else seriously, as we saw IOTL. Vietnamization with the proper equipment would be a useful, cost-effective way of washing his hands of the whole war. After all, it was his brother's strategy. A negotiated settlement a la Korea is the only realistic solution, but RVN and the US have to have the military upper hand to negotiate successfully. Kennedy, the consummate negotiator, will know this instinctively. Unlike Nixon, he is cordially detested and mistrusted by Thieu and Ky for obvious reasons. RFK may well try to use the Asian allies such as Oz, NZ, Thailand, Lee and Marcos to pressure Thieu into concessions, and do it himself as well. Thieu would likely not agree to a coalition government, but RFK has to let the democratic process run its course. If Thieu wants to win the election, he has to pick Ky as his running mate (as in '67), which will require knocking a few heads together.

There's not much about "regular" foreign policy, that is with regards to the Western bloc and international trade, because he and Nixon would follow the same policies.

Regarding Allende - there's a difference between work with them and launch a paramilitary strike against them. His section on Latin America is about 180 degrees from that.

Regarding Vietnam - I really, really doubt "use the USAF as a bludgeon" will fly. RFK had been arguing against bombing since 1966, it was his main divergence from LBJ/Humphrey's Vietnam policies.

Vietnamization I can definitely see, but I think bombing would be a huge blow to his credibility.

And given the results of the '67 election, you really think Thieu/Ky has a shot?
 
Re Allende: all that's required is a green light.
Re Vietnam: Vietnamization is the best bet. Politically safe, RFK can say "I gave them all the tools and our soldiers' lives but they blew it" if things go sour.
Re Thieu/Ky: I think so, because the opposition will not agree on a candidate, thus vote splitting as in 1967. Thieu is by far more competent, but has the charisma of a dirty rag. Ky I regard as a right-wing version of Chavez.
 
Re Allende: all that's required is a green light.
Re Vietnam: Vietnamization is the best bet. Politically safe, RFK can say "I gave them all the tools and our soldiers' lives but they blew it" if things go sour.
Re Thieu/Ky: I think so, because the opposition will not agree on a candidate, thus vote splitting as in 1967. Thieu is by far more competent, but has the charisma of a dirty rag. Ky I regard as a right-wing version of Chavez.

Allende - right, but here's a guy who's just written extensively about how the U.S giving green lights has been a really bad idea in the region. Given the instability involved in the Allende regime, I'm thinking he might just allow this one to collapse on its own accord. In the same chapter, RFK writes that Communism is a foreign import to Latin America and will not thrive there.

Vietnam - Vietnamization is one thing. Bombing is another. I don't disagree that RFK is going to wind down the troops while trying to maintain status quo, but I don't see him doing Nixonian-level bombing after publically crusading against it.

Also the question is what his desired outcome is - Vietnamization on the Nixonian model is to disentangle the U.S presence while keeping the war going, using bombing/invasion of Cambodia/etc. to try to either stabilize matters or give the U.S more leverage to win a graceful exit a la the Paris Peace Accords. RFK here seems to be going for a different route - bombing halt to activate peace talks, coalition interim government, free elections, elected coalition government, go home.

Thieu/Ky - fair enough.
 
Pinochet can easily topple Allende on his own: the domestic situation was already pointing towards a Chilean civil war anyways had the military not stepped in. The Chilean Army was perhaps the best Latin American military at the time, no need for Yanquis to help in doing something they're used to doing.

Re bombing: the USAF won't be doing the bombing, VNAF will, just as ARVN will be doing a Cambodian incursion.

Coalition: Thieu will be dead-set against a coalition as per OTL, but in the end there's little he can do about it. RFK will be even blunter than Nixon on this: no signature, aid cutoff, period. Thieu will win the election at all possible costs, then do one of two things: toss the NLF aside at the earliest possible opportunity, or he can invite some of them into the government, like Karzai is doing with the warlords. If Thieu/Ky win the election again, then no one can complain.
 
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