Robert Joseph Dole, 43rd President of the United States

The election will not be decided -- the election will not be decided by the polls or by the opinion-makers or by the pundits.

It will be decided by you. It will be decided by you.


-Bob Dole, in his acceptance speech after being nominated as the Republican presidential candidate, August 15, 1996.

* * *

November 4, 1996

NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Now some last day observations from three veteran political reporters who have been with us from time to time throughout this campaign: David Broder of the Washington Post, Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times, and Elizabeth Arnold of National Public Radio, who joins us from Dole's last stop before Election Day, New Haven, Connecticut. Elizabeth, this 72-hour marathon of Bob Dole is almost over. What impact has this last-ditch effort made in the polls?

ELIZABETH ARNOLD, National Public Radio: Well, I think it's done three things probably. It's fired up the base. It's created a lot of energy and a lot of interest, which he needed--badly needed to do. I think this is a very important to Dole. It proves how committed he is. He's been traveling around at a breakneck speed. We've had about three hours of sleep in as many days. That's a declaration of where I am right now, but it's really sort of energized the base. The problem is it doesn't seem to have had as much an effect in terms of the undecideds. We keep pulling into the airports at 3 in the morning, and we only see really hardcore supporters.

JIM LEHRER: Yes. David Broder, what do you think about this 72-hour marathon, what it says about Bob Dole that we should remember if he, uh, yeah?

DAVID BRODER, Washington Post: Well, I think it says a lot that is admirable about him. The man is a fighter. He never worried about what the odds were in his legislative career, whether it was the task of trying to find one more vote for the balanced budget amendment or find one more voter out there on the campaign trail. I think it speaks wonderful things about his character.

JIM LEHRER: Now, has this last-second flurry of activity changed the probable result tomorrow in any way?

MR. BRODER: Uh, nothing that I have heard, even including the last conversations I had with the people in the Dole headquarters who suggest that they think he is in a position to potentially win the election. I do think that he's moved some states from the Clinton column to the Dole column, and maybe put the result in just a little more doubt, but as Elizabeth was suggesting, these states have usually been placed in the Republican stands much earlier in the campaign than this.

JIM LEHRER: Yes. Ron Brownstein, you have spent some time in the last few days with President Clinton. What has his strategy been in these last few days leading up to the election? What is he trying to do?

RON BROWNSTEIN, Los Angeles Times: I think the Republicans caught his attention in this last stretch. I was out with him the week before last in the South, and he was sort of taking a victory lap before he had crossed the finish line. He was giving really--sort of amorphous, gauzy speeches. He didn't mention keywords like “Dole” or “Gingrich” or, uh, even “Republican” or “Democrat.” He talked about medical research and supercomputers, really low-key stuff. It was very odd, actually. In the last few days he's gotten a lot more poignant. I mean, he--in the excerpt you heard from Ohio today, talking about, you know, the Republicans were wrong on family and medical leave, and I was right, reviving some of the Medicare and budget debates, and I think that he's taken on a little water in the last few weeks with the revelations about the Democratic National Committee fund-raising, and he's very much conscious of trying to get over 50 percent, and I think he's trying to sharpen the message a little bit at the end to get him there.

JIM LEHRER: Why is getting over 50 percent so important to him?

MR. BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know, he has labored for four years as-- he is a plurality president.

JIM LEHRER: He had 44 percent.

MR. BROWNSTEIN: 43 percent, which was no better than the Democratic average in the six previous elections, of which they lost five, and I think he's very conscious that this last surge by Senator Dole is moving states, out of his column and into the Republican column, and he feels that he needs a strong, uh, victory in the electoral college and at least 50 percent of the vote to strengthen his hand when he deals with Congress, saying, look, you know, we gave the American people a choice, and they want to go in my direction, and not yours.

JIM LEHRER: Yeah. David, what do you think of the 50 percent figure? How important is that?

MR. BRODER: I don't think it's terribly important at all. What is important to the President is whether he can provide any help for these Democratic candidates in the close House and Senate races, of which we have literally dozens going into tomorrow's voting, Jim. Uh, if he can build up his vote in a way that helps them, then it's important. Otherwise, I bet you three nights from now nobody will be able to tell you what the percentage of the popular vote was that President Clinton received.

JIM LEHRER: Yeah. David--what about the lack of a Ross Perot factor, David? Has he--has his absence been a factor in this election?

MR. BRODER: His absence is a factor because for those who didn't really want to vote for either Bill Clinton or Bob Dole, he's not there as another option like he was in '92. And I think the reason that we've seen some apathy leading up to this election, you know, has been that there is no real alternative option. If they're not voting Perot--if they can't vote for Perot, they just won't vote at all.
 
November 5, 1996

NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

Election Night Coverage

Kwame Holman reports.


KWAME HOLMAN: Bob Dole was the first of the prominent presidential candidates to appear this election day. He and his wife Elizabeth were at the First Christian Church in Dole's home town of Russell, Kansas. Dole noted this vote was unique for him.

SEN. BOB DOLE: Well, It's not like I haven't voted before. But I have never voted for myself for President.

KWAME HOLMAN: This afternoon, Bill Clinton and First Lady Hillary Clinton took their turn, making their way to an old train station in Little Rock, Arkansas. Joined by daughter, Chelsea, President Clinton declined to speak about politics but waved to supporters after voting. The President capped this long campaign season by speaking at length one final time this morning. He spoke at a rally just before midnight in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

PRESIDENT CLINTON: This is the last speech of my last campaign. If you came up to me and said, what have you learned in 23 years that never changes, I would say, when people look into their hearts and they ask, what is the right thing for my children and for my family and for America's future, when they set aside their prejudices and embrace people of different racial and religious and ethnic groups who share their values of work and family and belief in the Constitution. When they roll up their sleeves and work together, America always wins. This is the greatest country in human history because we have created a system in which you are the boss. Tomorrow, you will be the boss, and you will go in there, and you'll be asked, will we renew President Clinton's contract?

KWAME HOLMAN: Mr. Clinton and his family plan to spend election night in Little Rock. It was a hoarse, tired Bob Dole who wrapped up his 96-hour non-stop campaign marathon at 4 AM today in Independence, Missouri. Dole predicted a come-from-behind victory.

SEN. BOB DOLE: Well, let me say tonight, we're approaching the end of a very historic campaign, that for many months I've traveled all over this country to spread my message about the future of America, and like all worthy causes, this one was done without its challenges. At times, many wondered whether my voice would be heard. In fact, I've wondered that myself the last week or so. It is fitting in the final hours of this campaign that I have come here to Independence, Missouri, the hometown of Harry Truman, a plain-spoken man, who defied the odds and challenged the prevailing wisdom and dared to trust the people, the American people. (applause)

KWAME HOLMAN: Tonight, Bob and Elizabeth Dole return to Washington, D.C., to await the election results. Ross Perot, the Texan billionaire who garnered over 19 million votes in the last presidential campaign, delivered a last-second endorsement of Senator Dole via a series of prerecorded infomercials. Aired in prime time on major networks at a cost of about $1 million, Ross Perot attacked President Clinton.

ROSS PEROT: Before you cast your ballot, ask yourself, would you hire a person facing criminal charges to baby sit your children? Of course not. To paint the interior of your house? No, they might steal something. Or to be the cashier at the cash register at a fast food restaurant? No, you wouldn't do it. Or would you even give a person facing criminal charges money to buy groceries for you and your family? No. You'd be afraid he wouldn't come back with the groceries. If the answer to these questions is no, how could you ever consider voting for a person with pending criminal charges to be President of the United States?

KWAME HOLMAN: Before the night is over, we will find out how Perot's and Dole's late campaign attacks on Bill Clinton affect the presidential outcome.
 
Yeah… no. Removing Ross Perot isn't enough of a factor—given Perot's issue stances and protest candidate appeal his base in '96 was probably pretty even between independents/Republicans/Democrats/non-voters. In other words, no Perot does not actually improve Dole's chances.


If you want Dole to win, Clinton needs to screw-up big or Dole wins an electoral college victory while losing by around 6-7 million votes. Dole winning like that is going to make OTL Lewinsky & Florida 2000 look like a walk in the park compared to how politics will proceed in the ATL.

Dole ran out of money after the primaries and was unable to spend anything until the convention… meanwhile Clinton ran up a large amount of (sometimes illegal) contributions and spent like crazy. If Dole wins the primaries easily he has money to compete and perhaps a strong Dole keeps Perot out, promises of a cabinet post get Perot to endorse and Dole wins a narrow electoral college victory while losing by only 5 million votes.

Or, like I said, Clinton needs to screw up really badly or—conversely—he needs to not adopt the triangulation strategy and stay a moderate Democratic President instead of becoming (as he did, I'd argue, post 1994) a moderate Republican President. That might help Dole somewhat.


But, of course, I don't know the actual POD you're using so….


JIM LEHRER: […] Elizabeth, this 72-hour marathon of Bob Dole is almost over. What impact has this last-ditch effort made in the polls?

KWAME HOLMAN: Mr. Clinton and his family plan to spend election night in Little Rock. It was a hoarse, tired Bob Dole who wrapped up his 96-hour non-stop campaign marathon at 4 AM today in Independence, Missouri.

72 or 96? :)

KWAME HOLMAN: Tonight, Bob and Elizabeth Dole return to Washington, D.C., to await the election results. Ross Perot, the Texan billionaire who garnered over 19 million votes in the last presidential campaign, delivered a last-second endorsement of Senator Dole via a series of prerecorded infomercials. Aired in prime time on major networks at a cost of about $1 million, Ross Perot attacked President Clinton.

Well besides it costing a lot more than a million bucks for primetime 30-second national spots on the three-four major networks (if you count Fox, in '96) I'm not sure why Perot would endorse Dole and, even if he did, I can't see it actually moving people to vote for Dole if they previously were going to stay home/not tick the Presidential box.
 
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