In August of 1862 Robert E. Lee was grazed on the cheek by a Federal sharpshooter. What if the shot had been right in Robert E. Lee's noggin?
Depends on who Davis puts in his place. He despised Beauregard AND Joe Johnston, so would he have simply promoted Jackson? Jackson's record in independent command is almost above reproach, but if he tried to press the entire AoNV the way he pressed his "foot cavalry", he might just find himself going the same way as IOTL. Friendly fire.
The Union victory comes a lot quicker.
Longstreet would be an interesting choice - I've seen it argued a lot that a more defensive strategy would have been greatly to the Confederacy's benefit - no Gettysburg campaign for one thing. Is it too late to call off the 1862 Maryland campaign too?
Unfortunately, Johnston is not available at this particular time. He'd be recovering from the wounds suffered at Fair Oaks/Seven Pines.Not really. Joe Johnston is probably a better field commander than Lee. Regression analysis using the Lanchester equations shows he was the best commander they fielded.
Jackson or Longstreet OTOH would be disasters. Their independent commands make Bragg look competent in comparison.