RN air raid on Taranto fails

I was just watching a doco on the History Channel about the famous Swordfish raid on the Italian Navy at Taranto, during WWII, & I got to wondering what if the raid was a disaster? What if most of the planes were shot down & none of the Italian ships suffered much damaged let alone none were sunk.

So what effect would this have on Allied operations in the Mediterranean Theatre?

And, maybe more to the point, what effect, if any, could such a defeat for the RN have on Japanese plans for Pearl Harbor?

Anything else?

Discuss...
 
I think the Japanese would look at a failed Taranto Raid and just figure out how they can do it better. The attack on Pearl Harbor was pretty damn close in concept to their attack on Port Arthur in 1904.

By strange coincidence when the Japanese did their attacks there was an Admiral Stark in command of their opponent's fleet. Oskar Stark at Port Arthur and Harold Stark, US Chief of Naval Operations.
 
Is there any way the Italians can get advance warning? It is pretty difficult to shoot things down at night anyway. More searchlights and alert AAA crews could make the difference.
 
The Wiki page on the battle says that the Italians knew the attack was coming, as they had seen British reconnaissance planes over the fleet. However, with no radar- if the radar of the time could have noticed a Stringbag- they couldn't do much about it.
Were there fighters in the area that could have been of use at night?
 
I was reading in an old article that the Italians had indeed considered the possibility of a night attack by carrier aircraft on the Port of Taranto. To combat this they put up an extensive balloon barrage all around the harbour. Problem was, that days before the actual attack, a storm hit the harbour and destroyed a sizeable portion of these defenses leaving the Nortwest approaches (the ones the British ended up using) open. Had those balloons still been in place it is unlikely that the British attack would have been as successfull or even taken place at all.

Without an attack at Taranto (presuming that the RN doesn't try something similiar in the coming months) The RM retain's it's ability to maintain a fleet in being that threatens Malta as well as the ability to easily project force into the Eastern Mediterranean. Moreover much of her main battleline is undamaged and able to sortie should the need arise.

With a failure at Taranto it is unlikely that the RN is going to try the copycat raids they did in OTL and probably focus on engaging the RM in traditional fleet combat roles.

If an analogue to the Battle of Cape Matapan occurs it's quite likely that the Italians, being able to field superior vessels might pull out a narrow victory. Then again the relative inferiority of the RM crews and their inability to fight at night might lead to a similiar outcome to OTL.

Assuming that Cape Matapan is an Italian victory of some sort, The upcoming Battle of Crete is probably affected in that with the RM still a force in the eastern Med, an amphibious landing is probably planned alongside the airborne invasion. As a result the Fallschirmjager take fewer losses and are used in subsequent campaigns perhaps even attempting to take Malta.

However, Long-term the Italians are screwed as their navy really had no hope of competing with the RN in terms of skill and equippment. If anything this would probably only prolong the war in the Med. by a year.
 

Markus

Banned
Is there any way the Italians can get advance warning? It is pretty difficult to shoot things down at night anyway. More searchlights and alert AAA crews could make the difference.

What do you need advance waring for? Just a few more anti-torpedo nets and it´s "GAME OVER" for the Swordfishs.
 
Top