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An idea came to me in the rival to the USA thread.What if allowing states to leave the Union is allowed by either the constitution, or the sitting American president. Say a number of States leave the Union early on over tariff issues. However, the President at the time believes this is constitutionally allowed, and sets the precedent that states can choose to leave the USA. Over time, a variety of states leave the Union for their own reasons. This creates a rival union of sorts, but differs from the OTL CSA insofar that it did not leave the USA in a war, and thus there is no animosity between the two. Also, there is no reason the states that leave the USA have to join the rival union-they could go solo, or form yet a third union on the North American continent. And if they don't like their new Union, why not go back to the original USA?

This could create interesting situations in regard to the North American continent. These Unions are now vying for the support of the most states. Considering that any state can do whatever it wants, I assume that the District of Colombia will be set as precedent in that the capital will not belong to any state, but rather be its own land. Also, the states have the ultimate veto power, so the 'Federal' government of every Union will probably be more libertarian, and not force as much stuff down the states' throats. There will be diplomatic relations between these Unions, but also between the individual states as well, since, for example, the USA may try to woo Virginia to stay with them.

Now the really interesting part comes in the exact way this happens. The first way to do it would probably be the War of 1812, where New England leaves the Union rather than badly lose a war against Britain, the Commonwealth of New England. Later, around the 1830's, a number of deep southern states leave over the tariff issue, or slavery, the Confederate States of America. Some may go alone, like an independent Texas. Some Western States, against slavery but angry with the Federal government over lax policies against the Indians and the price of the newly acquired Western land, leave to form the Federal States of America. A large Socialist movement arises in a few of the most industrialized states, which leave to form a new Socialist States of America. By this point, the USA is still the big man on the bloc, but now has numerous other nations on the continent to check their power. Now at some point, the USA is going to pass some law forbidding states to leave, or at least making large incentives for them not too. Going into the 20th century, there are still a host of reasons to leave the Union, like harsh Federal environmental standards, stance on nuclear weapons, and universal health care:rolleyes:.

So how do you think the North American continent will develop? One interesting aspect is that 'state nationalism' will still trump outright nationalism, so I will love Maryland over 'these United States'. It will weaken the USA internationally, since foreign nations can easily divide us. Until, at least, the USA stamps down on that practice, which I think they will at some point. Another interesting point could arise if a large part of the USA finds leaving the Union illegal, and creates an American irredentist movement. Eventually, as foreign nations undermine the USA, this faction could come to power, make session illegal, and declare most the USA's neighbors 'illegal states'. Too bad I didn't think of this for the lastest Map of the Fortnight! I still want to see a map of this scenario, though. Any volunteers? At least a good basemap?
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