Rising of Darkness : What if The Ottoman Empire won the Balkan war

The Balkan War
RISING OF DARKNESS-
What if The Ottoman Empire won the Balkan war

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PART I
8 October 1912-The Balkan League invades the Ottoman Empire.The Ottoman intelligence has wrong information on the location of the Balkan league armies and this will have catastrophic consequences for the Ottomans .The bulk of Ottoman soldiers was located in Macedonia,while the biggest army of the Balkan league was in Thrace,(where Bulgaria was fighting alone.) was in Thrace(the ottomans expected only 3 divisions supported by cavalry)The Bulgarian army advances in Thrace,which is divided into three smaller armies and besieged Edirne and Kırklareli and for now the four Balkan states are winning In Thrace.In Macedonia, however the situation is different.

The Macedonian and Vardar armies are more numerous than the Serbian and Bulgarian armies, but that will change when the Balkans allies win most of the operations on the Thracian front,as the Ottoman empire is underdeveloped and untrained,additionally,the regime of Abdulmecid has forbdidden all war games and most of the generals have no idea how to appy modern tactics on the battlefield.The Bulgarians soon manage to override the Ottoman defences and reached Thessaloniki one day after the Greeks,where the two kings met. The Ottomans had recently improved their navy by buying newer ships from the Germans and this helped them at Galipoli.
In the middle of the war,the Balkan league is winning decisively,but the people are afraid that the Great Powers won't like the expansion of the Balkan League and they are right to be scared.The London conference between the Great powers(Russia,UK,France,A-H and Germany.The Ottoman Empire didn't take part.)The conference was about the Balkan war most of nations were for an intervention in the war,as they didn't want to lose their influence over the Balkans.UK and A-H(The two main nations which were against the San Stefano preliminary treaty)were once again against the young Balkan states and for the intervention on the Ottoman side.The austro-hungarian ambassadors talked about the effects of a Balkan victory.They said that the nations from the Balkan won't be so dependant on the Great Powers and that they will probably stay together after the end of the war and that they will attack Serbia and Montenegro.The Russian delegates ,on the other side that they shouldn't help the Ottomanss and leave the Balkan war to the Balkans and they mentioned that the Ottomans aren't Christians.The other delegates said that this doesn't mean that the Balkans states have to expand.At the end of the conference most of the ambassadors were at the same opinion-something will have to be done about the Balkans.

A-H is ready to attack and declares war on the Balkan League on the 1 February 1913.People are scared,but they never expected that such drastic measures would be taken.The Balkan League isn't capable of fighting on two fronts.A-H invades and the battle of Belgrade is won by the Austro-hungarians(led by Arthur Arz von Straußenburg with an army of 100,000 men against the small army of 20,000,which were defending the capital)They can't leave the Ottoman front but if they don't send some units the Austrians will continue the invasion.This weakens the Ottoman front,and soon Thessaloniki is reclaimed.TheBalkan league starts peace negotiating,after a few decisive defeats,as they can't fight against the armies of two of the great Powers. and the Balkan war is won by the Ottomans.The peace treaty of Belgrade is a treaty between the Balkan League and A-H.The Ottoman Empire was not represented and later the treaty of Thessaloniki will be concluded with the Balkan states.
 
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CalBear

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Just a note to everyone. The OP has tried to complete a rewrite of the first post of this thread. It may/may not strike you are probable. At this time it is not, IMO, ASB.

Improbable =/= ASB. If that was the sole criteria this Forum and pre-1900 would be pretty much empty (AANW included).

As is always the case you are free to critique. PLAY THE BALL. The OP is trying to work inside the accepted Forum parameters. Keep that in mind.
 
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I find the concept interesting, but your text is very hard to read, and you should have more details.

May I suggest you use paragraphs, and perhaps bullet points for important things. Like this:

  • 1910 the Ottomans buy a Scharnhorst-class armoured cruiser from the Germans, meaning their navy is now severely stronger than the Greek counterpart.
  • The Ottomans place X divisions in Eastern Thrace, expecting a weak Bulgarian trust of X divisions, and the bulk of their army, X divisions, in Macedonia to fight an expected thrust by the armies of Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia from three directions.
 
I find the concept interesting, but your text is very hard to read, and you should have more details.

May I suggest you use paragraphs, and perhaps bullet points for important things. Like this:

  • 1910 the Ottomans buy a Scharnhorst-class armoured cruiser from the Germans, meaning their navy is now severely stronger than the Greek counterpart.
  • The Ottomans place X divisions in Eastern Thrace, expecting a weak Bulgarian trust of X divisions, and the bulk of their army, X divisions, in Macedonia to fight an expected thrust by the armies of Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia from three directions.
Thanks,I will try to improve it.
 
The Treaties
The Treaties
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In the treaty of Belgrade Serbia would have to pay for the occupation of Eastern Serbia(Which would have to remain under Austrian occupation for three months),All Balkan League nations would have to reduce their army's size to 20,000(Montenegro would have to reduce it to 5,000)and would have to pay war reparations of 500,000 krones(which isn't something that the Balkan states and finally Austria-Hungary will get very little parts of northwest Serbia.Serbia,because it borders the Austrians is the most harmed nation of all of the Balkan League.

The treaty of Thessaloniki will harm the small nations even more.
  • Bulgaria has to cede parts of South Bulgaria(namely the city of Kardzhali,a city with a lot of Turkish citizens)
  • Greece cedes Larissa and Volos,cities that are mostly populated by Greeks, and this causes unrest in the population
  • Serbia has to give Vranje
  • Montenegro(a small nation already)doesn't have to cede anything,but they have to pay 25,000 more lira
  • All countries will have to give (separately from the other treaty)150,000 lira and with both treaties together they have to pay about 700,000 which too much for the economy of the nations
  • The weapons of the Balkan armies are taken by the Ottomans(the armies had foreign equipment)The ottoman army took most of the mauser-koka rifles which were made in Serbia,Bulgaria didn't make any weapons,but they had weapons from all European countries,the Bulgarian were armed with Mannlichers(1895 models)and Smith & Wesson's revolvers ,the Greek army was reformed in 1899-1909 and the guns that the Greeks purchased from the french(75 mm Schneider-Danglis 06/09)were all taken and will from now on be used by the Ottomans and similarly to the Bulgarian they had many Mannlichers and Montnegro's army was almost completely destroyed.

Many journalists and ambassadors agreethat until these peace treaties exist,there will be no peace on the Balkans.

The Balkan League is disbanded officially, but the countries are still allied to each other

The people aren't happy and there are protest in the cities,but for now they are powerless and can't do anything

The immigration is a great problem.Thousands of people go to the Balkan states.All of the immigrants are people from one of the four Balkan countries and they don't want to be oppressed by the Ottomans(which now persecute non-muslims more after the end of the war.
 
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This second update is a lot more readable, so you're on the right track there. I'd expect civil disruption not only in the defeated Balkan states, but also in Russia as well, for failing to protect the Balkan kingdoms from foreign aggression. The Pan-Slavists will be furious about that, and Russia's already unstable to begin with, so there's likely trouble brewing over there.
 
This second update is a lot more readable, so you're on the right track there. I'd expect civil disruption not only in the defeated Balkan states, but also in Russia as well, for failing to protect the Balkan kingdoms from foreign aggression. The Pan-Slavists will be furious about that, and Russia's already unstable to begin with, so there's likely trouble brewing over there.
Yes,people would want to help the balkan states, I think they will help with the reparations
 
This second update is a lot more readable, so you're on the right track there. I'd expect civil disruption not only in the defeated Balkan states, but also in Russia as well, for failing to protect the Balkan kingdoms from foreign aggression. The Pan-Slavists will be furious about that, and Russia's already unstable to begin with, so there's likely trouble brewing over there.
I think I should create a good name for that,the current one is too long.
 
Pan-Slavism
Pan-Slavism
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The three colors of pan-slavism-blue,white,red
Pan-Slavism is an ideology concerned with the advancement of integrity and unity for the Slavic peoples.It is on the rise since the first Pan-Slavic congress in 1848 and became even more popular after the south slavs were liberated(Bulgaria was liberated in 1878 from the Ottoman Empire and was the last country to be ruled by another nation.)
When the Balkan war ended the Russian pan-slavists weren't happy with the inactivity of Nicholas II.For now they they aren't armed and the police is trying to stop them for doing anything,but they demand changes.They decided to turn to Mikhail Rodzianko,as he is the chairman of the State Duma,however nothing happened,as the State Duma doesn't have any power.The Tsar was afraid that this might happen ever since the London Conference a few months earlier.He was to make a speech in front of the people.
,,Many people remember the liberation of Bulgaria and how much we helped the other Slavic nations the same year.We helped for the creation of the new Bulgarian state.And every time we want to help Slavic or orthodox nations we are always stopped by the Ottoman Empire and the other West non- Slavic countries.We could not help the Balkan League in the war,because most of the European nations would go to the Ottoman side.We can help the Balkans with their economies and the reparations.I hope the people won't forget this."​
But he did nothing,no money were given to the Balkan state and didn't help the people From the Balkans.
The people demand a change,not in the way in which the Tsar rules,Nicholas OK is not popular ,they want to become democracy like the western countries.Russia was an undeveloped nation and the monarchy deepens the problem,it doesn't solve it.The new Pan-Slavic party wanted democracy in Russia and Unity between the slavs.The party is led by Pavel Nikolayevich Miliukov,who has spent many years in the Balkans.The slogan of the party is Slavic peoples,unite!

In the Balkans the situation is even worse ,the people revolt every day,because none of the countries can afford the reparations.
Very important were the people in the Ottoman lands,they created revolutionary organizations,Many revolutionaries became popular in the free independent nations as they stood up against the Ottomans.They usually communicate with the Balkan League and tried to hurt the Ottoman State.
The Ottomans treated the people in cruel and inhuman ways which is against the Treaty of Berlin,but for now the Great Powers don't do anything about it.
All this led to a secret meeting between the four Balkan monarchs.
 
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Sorry to be jumping in here a bit late but I do love the concept of the Balkan states losing the Ottoman war.

But some suggestions to a rewrite that would make this very plausible:

1) The improved Ottoman Navy is enough for the Ottomans to win the war. The Greek navy kept reinforcements from arriving from Asia. The Turks had 400,000 men they couldn't bring into the war

2) Britain has long since given up on the Ottomans and having her support them is a bit of a reach

3) Russia should be playing a double game. They want the straits for themselves not the Bulgarians but there is public opinion to worry about. They wouldn't mind seeing the allies defeated but publicly can't back the Turks

4) Instead of direct Austrian intervention, how about they use Romania as a proxy? Have the Romanians move against the Bulgarians in the First Balkan War instead of the second

5) The Russian people demanding more democracy over this is a bit of a reach. You'll need tensions between the elite who would be upset with it and the masses who wouldn't care. To truly understand Russia you must get to this tension- 80% of the people live in the villages and in the villages, Russia is by the far the most democratic country in Europe
 
Sorry to be jumping in here a bit late but I do love the concept of the Balkan states losing the Ottoman war.

But some suggestions to a rewrite that would make this very plausible:

1) The improved Ottoman Navy is enough for the Ottomans to win the war. The Greek navy kept reinforcements from arriving from Asia. The Turks had 400,000 men they couldn't bring into the war

2) Britain has long since given up on the Ottomans and having her support them is a bit of a reach

3) Russia should be playing a double game. They want the straits for themselves not the Bulgarians but there is public opinion to worry about. They wouldn't mind seeing the allies defeated but publicly can't back the Turks

4) Instead of direct Austrian intervention, how about they use Romania as a proxy? Have the Romanians move against the Bulgarians in the First Balkan War instead of the second

5) The Russian people demanding more democracy over this is a bit of a reach. You'll need tensions between the elite who would be upset with it and the masses who wouldn't care. To truly understand Russia you must get to this tension- 80% of the people live in the villages and in the villages, Russia is by the far the most democratic country in Europe
Thanks for the advice
 
The Secret meeting
The secret meeting
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The monarchs met a few weeks after the events in Russia.The biggest problem was to determine the place of the meeting.They couldn't hold it in Serbia,which was occupied by the Austro-Hungarians.Southern Serbia was not occupied,but it would be safer if they tried to hold the meeting in another nation.The Austrains were waiting for an action from the Ballkans and they saw it when the people started revolting against the government, because they can't pay the reparations.Not all Austro-Hungarian agreed to the treaty.Austria-Hungary is a multinational state and most of the people were Slavic.And even the Hungarians did not like what the Austrians did.The people that hold the power in Austria-Hungary were Austrians and they supported the Treaty.The other nations I Austria-Hungary, however didn't like the treaty,because it was too harsh on the Balkan nations.This created unrest in the multinational state,this time not because of Pan-Slavism,but because the Austrians hold too much power.
The rulers chose Bosilegrad,Bulgaria.The Serbian ruler will be able to go there without going through Ottoman lands,The other rulers had to go through Ottoman lands.Luckily ,they ,over through their lands without any problems and they met on 12 October 1913.First they had to discuss what to do with the consequences from the treaty.The revolts that happen everyday harm the countries more than the treaty itself. The treaty of Thessaloniki was called,,Treaty of Bloodshed",because (apart from the war casualties)The ottomans killed many non-muslims after the war to punish them. The treaty of Belgrade earned the name,,Treaty of Disorder"because that is what happened inside the Balkan League.
They have to help each other and the countries(and their monarchs) continue to be allied.
Ferdinand of Bulgaria was from the House of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha-Koháry,which is a German house,but now that he is King of Bulgaria and has to lead the country against A-H,he is now more Bulgarian than German.
On this meeting Peter I offered an orthodox union until they take their lands from the Ottomans.If the others accept it will change the Balkans and probably Europe
 
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Orthodox union
Orthodox Union
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The orthodox union looks like an impossible idea,not only because of the difference between these four countries,but also because all four monarchs have to rule together,and all of them would have to have equal power.
The Serbian prime minister Nikola Pašić(who had lived in Bulgaria after escaping arrest ,because of the Timok rebellion).He supported Peter I,because he was a more democratic ruler,unlike the last two king.The defeat in the Balkan War united all these nations more than any other moment in history.
The newly elected Prime minister of Montenegro Janko Vukotić will be a defense minister and a prime minister at the same time.As a general and a defense minister,he realised the threat of A-H.Since the invasion of Serbia,people are scared of another Austrian attack,so he was willing to accept the Orthodox union.
The Bulgarian prime minister Ivan Geshov liked the other Balkan Nations even when Bulgaria and Serbia were rivals.He has no reason not to support it.
The Entente was formed in 1907 between Russia,Great Britain and France. However,the end of this alliance is very close.New alliances will be made.The UK doesn't want to be allied with Russia,because of the tensions with the pan-slavists.They will probably find other allies.A-H might be a valuable ally not only in the Balkans,but against Russia.
The Triple Alliance will probably collapse too.The Austrians are interested in an alliance with the UK,who helped them at the London Conference.The The Christian Social Party,which was second in popularity after the Social Democrats backed the government's idea of an alliance with the UK. the party's leader Karl Lueger had died in 1910 and lost the 1911 elections because of that(they were the largest parliamentary group in the 1907 elctions).It is a Catholic party and it was oriented towards the clerical-Catholic;there were many priests in the party,One of the most popular people in the Party was Ignaz Seipel,an Austrian priest and when Lueger died he started leading the party.
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Any suggestions on what should happen next?
Maybe some Riots in Larissa and Volos that are brutally put down by the Ottomans and turn public opinion against them. However I do not know if the last part is very realistic (It might be hushed up) but you did say that those cities are mostly ethnically greek, so i think a riot there is more probable then in, say, Kardzhali.
Again, I have no idea if any of this is probable or not.
 
Maybe some Riots in Larissa and Volos that are brutally put down by the Ottomans and turn public opinion against them. However I do not know if the last part is very realistic (It might be hushed up) but you did say that those cities are mostly ethnically greek, so i think a riot there is more probable then in, say, Kardzhali.
Again, I have no idea if any of this is probable or not.
It is probable,you are right that there should be unrest in the cities that are mostly ethnically Greek
 
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The End of the old Monarchy
The end of the old monarchy
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In 1910 Franz Josef told Theodore Roosevelt "You see in me the last Europeanmonarch of the old school".And the people liked him because of that.At first only the Austrians liked him ,because the Hungarians wanted power in the empire
,but after the Compomise(or the Ausgleich) the Magyars were given power to make their own rules and they had their own parliament and then most of theMagyarsy are started to like him too.However,they still had one monarch and common ministries for war,foreign affairs and finance.And a lot of people weren't happy with that-they want full independence.The National party of Work won the 1910 elections.The NPW is a national liberal party whose aims is to liberate the Hungarian Kingdom from the Austrians.Seeing the aftermath of the Austro-hungarian- Balkan League war,he decided to use the crisis in the Balkans to his advantage.The people in the Balkans hated the Austrians and Franz Josef more than anything.New parties were established-parties for national liberation.
The Bulgarian Party for National Liberation is led by Atanas Burov,as he was the only politician who fought in the First Balkan War voluntarily.All people want to liberate the lands controlled by the Ottomans,but some want it more than others.The party gained massive support from the people.A big problem for the Otomans was that the lands that the Balkan League wanted were populated by Christians.The Ottomans started persecuting Christians, which was just one more reason for the rise of such Parties.
The Serbian Nationalist party ,led by Milenko Vesnić,he was one of the delegates in the treaty of Belgrade and it is more focused against Austria-Hungary rather than the Ottoman Empire.
Vesnić spent his life in Rome and Paris as a minister.He is praised for his book,,The Balkan League thorough and after the Balkan war"It explains the plan made by the Balkan League to distract the Ottoman army from Thrace ,how the Balkan League was formed and the battles between the Balkan League and the Ottomans.After that he talks about the Austrian intervention and the battle of Belgrade.The other is for the Balkan League after the war.He talks about the treaties,the economic crisis and the disarmament.It has been translated in many languages except German(in Austria) And Turkish,because it insults Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman empire
The party for national liberation (The Liberal party)was established before the war in 1910 and is led by the prime minister of Greece Eleftherios Venizelos.He initiated constitutional and economic reforms that set the basis for the modernization of Greek society and also reorganized both army and navy in preparation of future conflicts.This helped the Greek army in the Balkan war.They used weapons produced in France.Now,after they,as everyone else, wanted to regain their lands.He had to reform the economy using foreign investment from other countries of the Balkan league,which led to an end of the crisis in Greece faster than in any of the other Balkan nations.
Venizelos is known for his democratic policies,which the monarchs did not like,but the new king didn't do anything to lower his power as he helped the Greek nation recover from the economic crisis
László Lukács started secretly sending weapons to the armies of the Balkan League and contacted the leaders of the parties to talk about the assassination of Franz Josef,Emperor of Austria-Hungary.The people in the Balkans started murdering people of Turkish and German origin and basically eliminated the turkish population in the Balkan League.
The leader of the assassination is Dragutin Dimitrijević,a Serbian Nationalist and colonel.He was part of the attempt to assassinate the emperor in 1911 and he was ready to try again.Many Serbian anti-austrian groups have since the loss of the Balkan war.One of these groups is the Force of Salvation.
The emperor is going to visit Budapest early next year and that was the plan-Trifun "Trifko" Grabež was going to wait in Budapest with the help of the NPW and the other parties and when the emperor comes he is going to shoot him.
Meanwhile,revolutionaries from Turkish lands formed the Macedonian-Thracian organisation aiming to free the lands from ottoman rule.The countries from the Balkans gave them weapons and money so that the organisation can undermine the morale of the Turkish population.
The time soon came and the emperor arrived on the 24th February 1914.The organizers of the assassination told Grabež to use cyanide and kill himself to avoid captivity.
Grabež walked into Vaci street where the emperor was riding in the popular automobile 28/32 PS
Grabež fired with the Rast & Gasser Model 1898.This shot will change the History of the world and Europe.
End of Part I
 
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