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So mulling over some kaiserreich stuff and I'm basically wondering- say the Kaiser has a dose of sanity and agrees to cede Tsingtao (and possibly the rest of German Asia) to Japan in 1914, thus preventing their joining the Entente.

Very little changes beyond Japanese neutrality- a few hundred extra soldiers (Japanese and otherwise) are alive, and Japan isn't helping patrol the Mediterranean or Pacific, but ultimately the course of the war in Europe is probably unaffected by Japanese neutrality.

Fast forward to 1917. The US has entered the war, and Russia is collapsing into revolution.

Japan has two options. If they're smart they pull a Turkey and DoW Germany in 1917/1918. If they're not...
they invade Russia, de facto declaring war on the Entente.

Say that some level of stupidity happens (on both sides TBH since I doubt Britain wouldn't care much if Japan is "restoring order" in Bolshevik Siberia; blame Wilson for picking a fight with "orientals" I guess) and Japan ends up at war with the Entente.

What happens next?

TBH I think the answer is still "not much." I doubt the Entente (or realistically the US who is the only one with the bodies to spare) feel like going the distance in the Pacific, especially if it's because of some stupidly racist thing Wilson said or whatever. Japan probably walks away almost as cleanly as OTL, at most maybe she loses some of the islands (thinking Australia, IIRC the delegate was supremely racist/white supremacist even by early 20th century standards) and/or trades them for north Sakhalin.

Possibly Germany holds out a few months more- with the US probably sending troops to the Pacific maybe they naively think they can get a more negotiated settlement (and they might not be wrong... but I sort of doubt they'd be willing to offer terms the Entente would accept ie Alsace Lorraine and at least some Austrian territory), but by 1919 Germany is on her last legs and the brink of revolution and throws in the towel.
The biggest difference is in the dynamics of the peace conference.

First- Japan is now nominally an enemy. There is no appeasement- Germany's outposts in Shangdong are outright given to China (rather than Wilson having to accomodate Japan) rather than having to wait until 1922. As mentioned they possibly lose a few of the islands to Britain/Australia and/or the US- but Korea, Taiwan, etc. are still kept, and North Sakhalin is possibly up for grabs depending on how the cards shake out.

Second- Italy and France have a somewhat better position. No Japanese support means that Britain has to depend a bit more on her other allies for naval patrols- and the fighting in the east, however briefly, possibly allows both powers (especially France) to win brownie points with a bit of extra support. The bigger change is in Europe- if the Germans hold out until 1919 then France is probably beyond the OTL armistice line- possibly liberating all of France and Belgium and possibly even crossing into Germany (doubt they get across the Rhine though- French troops entering German lands probably triggers the armistice). Italy meanwhile has finished destroying the dregs of Austria and is probably squatting on Istria, Tyrol etc (and possibly squabbling with the Serbs over eg Dalmatia). On the whole both powers probably have a somewhat stronger position- Italy, for instance, probably gets Istria outright, and France the Saarland and/or some additional colonies.

Then there's Wilson- the man ran himself ragged over the League of Nations but I doubt his health is much better here, especially since even a brief Pacific War could easily double US casualties (it's not like the US won't be sending doughboys to die in France either), so he very well could have a stroke before the conference happens. In which case who gets sent to Paris?

Finally there's outside possibilities like China DoW-ing Japan and probably getting a bit more out of the conference- the German concessions, as mentioned, as I doubt something like Taiwan is in play barring a longer conflict. Siam also could play a bit more of a role- but I doubt France or Britain give them anything for it.

All of this assumes the Japanese don't decide to fight to the bitter end (or that the Entente don't decide to do that rather) which is a whole mess on its own.

Thoughts?
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