Right-wing, authoritarian West Germany

[The Shinebox of Iran]

Despite the fact that some Americans view East Germany as having some sort of parallels with the Third Reich, given the fact that for all intents and purposes it was a single-party state (SED) which suspended some personal liberties and had a powerful intelligence-security apparatus, it was nevertheless more throughly and intensively de-Nazified than West Germany, especially in the political realm. Hence why a sizable portion of the representatives of the nascent CDU were former members of the Nazi Party, most notably Kurt Georg Kiessinger, who was elected chancellor in 1966.

My ultimate question is, is it possible that as a result of political events in West Germany, say someone to the left of Willy Brandt is elected chancellor and is seen as being too soft and conciliatory to the Warsaw Pact, that people in the General Staff of the Bundeswehr or senior agents in the Federal Intelligence Service launches a coup, and installs some sort of junta regime similar to the military junta of Greece or even the presidential dictatorship of Pinochet?

Would the United States tolerate this development, like it did with Spain when it was rebranded from a fascist state to a national-security government sympathetic to anti-communism? How would the Soviet Union and France react, especially if there is an irredentist or revanchist tinge to this new regime?

 

[Miss Teri]

The US will be humiliated, but as long as it remains in US interests (and remains friendly to Israel), they'll support it as an anti-communist bulwark.

 

[viperzero]

The Bundeswehr was pretty castrated politically. I mean given the right circumstances it can happen, any organized group with weapons could but its really unlikely.

 

[Marisa Kiridifferent]

Probably something like the DNVP?

 

[The Shinebox of Iran]

I'm thinking that if this left-SPD, West German chancellor is offered a reunification proposal by East Germany or the Soviet Union which entails the FRG leaving NATO and becoming geopolitically neutral (something similar to the "Stalin note"), and attempts to push it through the Bundestag, that could possibly trigger the result of this scenario.

 

[The Shinebox of Iran]

"probably something like the DNVP"

Well, it wouldn't have the similar material conditions and factors which was behind the strength of the DNVP, namely being a party of Prussian Junkers (who were practically eradicated as a class at the end of the Second World War) and their loyal East Elbian tenant farmers. That that type of party or political organization going to happen again in the same sense.

 

[The Shinebox of Iran]

One thing I'm sure of is that this authoritarian government isn't going to accept the Oder-Niesse Line as being the definitive German-Polish border. Meaning that if somehow reunification happens just like OTL, the probability of a German-Polish armed conflict becomes much more likely, despite the fact that ethnic Germans comprised less than 1% of the population of the former eastern German territories.

Also, bonus points if this authoritarian West Germany is countered by the development of a democratized East Germany (POD whenever), the latter of which doesn't essentially have to have a higher GDP per capita than the West.

 

[SeanPdineen]

Perhaps the fears Of defense minister strauss as a proto-fascist are real! I think the resurrection of the holy roman empire might come to pass.

 

[Brundlefly]

A Bundeswehr coup is pretty unlikely. Germany simply doesn't have a tradition of military coups. The idea that the army has to be loyal to the state had a long tradition which probably goes back to the days of Prussia. It didn't even happen during the Weimar Republic, when the military establishment was monarchist and anti-republican. The de facto coups of Ludendorff in 1916, or Seeckt in 1923 actually happened more or less to strengthen the role of the state (the former by making the chancellor more subservient to the army and the Kaiser, the latter as a response to SPD/KPD state governments to prevent a potential left-wing uprising).

There actually was strong resistance against Brandt's foreign policy in the early 1970s, mostly coming the CDU and its allies in the former Expelled Blocs, as Brandt was seen as selling out the former Eastern territories to the Communists. Even in 1990, there were CDU and CSU politicians sceptical to reunification, for it would have (and has) finally accepted the Oder-Neiße line as the definite German-Polish border. And in the 1950s, it was the FDP that attracted even more former NSDAP members than the CDU (there were even attempts at state level to turn it into an out-and-out nationalist party). This changed while they were in opposition in the late 1960s and then switched to a more modern, socially liberal party platform. So to keep West Germany on a more right-wing, authoritarian path, you'd need a continuation of the CDU/CSU coalition with the 'old' FDP of Erich Mende, Friedrich Middelhauve et al. But I guess that would have turned the student demonstrations of the 1960s more violent, possible leading to an earlier Baader Meinhof gang...

As already mentioned, a neutralist Germany after the "Stalin note" in 1952 probably would have led to this. The SED itself was also very nationalist in its own way and kept many Wehrmacht officers in the NVA. So a neutral Germany with a reactionary CDU/FDP government and a revisionist NVA might have turned into something like Franco's Spain.

 

[Johnrankins]

Near ASB, the Germans been there, done that and learned their lesson. Also considering its history the US government is going to consider a right wing authoritarian government in Germany much differently than it did in Third World backwaters that were semi-useful during the Cold War. The US wasn't going to sit back and watch without concern about a possible "Fourth Reich" which is what it would look like.

 

[Johnrankins]

Despite the fact that some Americans view East Germany as having some sort of parallels with the Third Reich, given the fact that for all intents and purposes it was a single-party state (SED) which suspended some personal liberties and had a powerful intelligence-security apparatus, it was nevertheless more throughly and intensively de-Nazified than West Germany, especially in the political realm. Hence why a sizable portion of the representatives of the nascent CDU were former members of the Nazi Party, most notably Kurt Georg Kiessinger, who was elected chancellor in 1966.

My ultimate question is, is it possible that as a result of political events in West Germany, say someone to the left of Willy Brandt is elected chancellor and is seen as being too soft and conciliatory to the Warsaw Pact, that people in the General Staff of the Bundeswehr or senior agents in the Federal Intelligence Service launches a coup, and installs some sort of junta regime similar to the military junta of Greece or even the presidential dictatorship of Pinochet?

Would the United States tolerate this development, like it did with Spain when it was rebranded from a fascist state to a national-security government sympathetic to anti-communism? How would the Soviet Union and France react, especially if there is an irredentist or revanchist tinge to this new regime?

Remember a lot of Nazi Party members were in it for the perks not the philosophy which happened a lot in Communist countries as well. You join the party in a single party state not necessarily because you believe in their platform but the fact that if you have any ambition at all you will need to join to accomplish your goals . If you are satisfied with being a factory drone or a peasant you can get away with not joining the party . Much more than that and you will need it to get the job, unofficially if not officially.

 

[Little Red Bean]

Why would right-wing authoritarian elements feel the need to take power? Most of them were pretty safe and secure in OTL's lightly de-Nazified West Germany, many even occupying top government positions after the war. The only thing that could get the Germans and Americans to back a complete right-wing authoritarian takeover of West Germany would be a more serious internal communist threat. After all, we know that in post-war Japan, ex-militarists and the Americans mulled over a right-wing coup when it looked like communists were getting too powerful. But in both Japan and Italy, both of whom had stronger post-war communist movements than West Germany, the result was ultimately just the CIA propping up the LDP and Christian Democrats, so we're more likely to see something like that than a German Pinochet.

 

[Nebogipfel]

Why would right-wing authoritarian elements feel the need to take power? Most of them were pretty safe and secure in OTL's lightly de-Nazified West Germany, many even occupying top government positions after the war. The only thing that could get the Germans and Americans to back a complete right-wing authoritarian takeover of West Germany would be a more serious internal communist threat. After all, we know that in post-war Japan, ex-militarists and the Americans mulled over a right-wing coup when it looked like communists were getting too powerful. But in both Japan and Italy, both of whom had stronger post-war communist movements than West Germany, the result was ultimately just the CIA propping up the LDP and Christian Democrats, so we're more likely to see something like that than a German Pinochet.

A POD could be no Godesberger Program for the SPD in 1959, where OTL Social-Democrats essentially abandoned socialism. Only 10 years later they took over in a coalition with the FDP.
The SPD may have turned into a increasingly frustrated party, leading to increasing radicalization especially among younger supporters. Franz Josef Strauss was probably the best bet for a Pinochet-ish chancellor in that time (he also liked the idea of a nuclear armed Germany). There is also a 80s thriller by Paul Erdman depicting a Strauss-led Germany which would make an interesting ATL.

 

[Brundlefly]

A POD could be no Godesberger Program for the SPD in 1959, where OTL Social-Democrats essentially abandoned socialism. Only 10 years later they took over in a coalition with the FDP.
The SPD may have turned into a increasingly frustrated party, leading to increasing radicalization especially among younger supporters. Franz Josef Strauss was probably the best bet for a Pinochet-ish chancellor in that time (he also liked the idea of a nuclear armed Germany). There is also a 80s thriller by Paul Erdman depicting a Strauss-led Germany which would make an interesting ATL.

I'm working on a timeline where reunification is delayed, and one prerequisite for this to be half-way realistic is to massively screw up West Germany. One idea includes Franz-Josef Strauss becoming chancellor and losing much reputation among the East German population due to his financial credits for the GDR.