Riding the political merry-go-round: a TL from 1924

This TL uses this thread - https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=261964 - as its starting point.

There are two PODs. The first is that the Liberals put up more candidates in the general election of 1924 than in OTL - 417 compared with 339. The absence of Liberal candidates benefitted the Conservatives more than Labour.

The second POD is that the Zinoviev Letter [1] was denounced by Ramsay MacDonald and ministers in his cabinet as a forgery.
'Civil War Plot by Socialists', announced a banner headline in the Daily Mail on October 25th. 'Moscow Order to our Reds. Great Plot Disclosed Yesterday.' 'A secret letter of instructions from Moscow to the British Communist Party', it reported, had come into the possession of the Daily Mail, which had sent copies to the other London papers. It was signed by Zinoviev, the President of the Communist International, and addressed to A. MacManus, the British representarive on the Comintern Executive. The letter was dated September 15th, and, the Daily Mail alleged, had been delivered to MacDonald and Henderson [the Home Secretary] 'some weeks ago'. On October 22nd, the Foreign Office had decided to make it public, together with a protest which the British Government had sent to the Boshevik charge s'affaires in London.
Quotation is taken from the book Ramsay MacDonald by David Marquand, London: Jonathan Cape Ltd, 1977.

Having ascertained from the Foreign Office that the Letter was a forgery, MacDonald denounced it in a speech in Cardiff on October 27th, he was followed by Arthur Henderson, Philip Snowden, John Clynes, James Thomas, Charles Trevelyan and Josiah Wedgwood.

Polling day was on Wednesday, October 29th. The first result was Salford South which was held by Labour. [2] As the results came in overnight and the next day, though the Conservatives were gaining seats from the Liberals, they were losing seats to Labour. After the final result was declared on October 31st, it was clear that no party had an overall majority. The number of candidates elected for each party, and Independents were as follows [1923 general election]:
Conservative: 298 [258]
Labour: 215 [191]
Liberal: 97 [158]
Communist: 1 [0]
Irish Nationalist: 1 [3]
Socialist Prohibition: 1 [1]
Independents: 2 [2, plus an Independent Liberal and a Christian Pacifist]. [3]
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Total: 615 [615]
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The Independents elected were Dr. E.G.G. Graham-Little [London University] and A.Hopkinson [Lancashire Mossley]. The turnout was 78.3% [71.1%] [4]

The percentage votes were as follows [1923 general election]
Conservatives: 40.5 [38.0]
Labour: 34.7 [30.7]
Liberals: 23.9 [29.7]
Others: 0.9 [1.6]

Here is a breakdown of the number of seats gained and lost by each party compared with the 1923 general election:
Conservatives gained 65 seats and lost 25 seats, making a net gain of 40 seats. Labour gained 41 seats and lost 17 seats, making a net gain of 24 seats. The Liberals gained 9 seats and lost 70 seats, making a net loss of 61 seats. The Communists gained one seat. The Irish Nationalists lost two seats. The Independent Liberal and Christian Pacifist each lost one seat.

Labour bagged two big prizes - Herbert Asquith, the leader of the Liberal Party in Paisley, and Sir Oswald Mosley defeated Neville Chamberlain by 743 votes in Birmingham Ladywood. Also Malcolm MacDonald, the Prime Minister's son gained Bassetlaw for Labour from the Conservatives.

The cabinet met on November 3rd. The members are listed here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_MacDonald_ministry.
The question to be decided was whether MacDonald should resign as Prime Minister in favour of Stanley Baldwin, or whether he and the government should stay in office and face a vote of confidence in the King's Speech. Parliament was due to assemble on December 2nd.

They unanimously decided that they stay in office, and also to offer the Liberals a pledge in the King's Speech a Bill to provide for elections to the House of Commons by the Single Transferable Vote. The Labour Whips would allow a free vote to Labour MPs for the second reading of the Bill, but if it passed its second reading, the government would allow it time.

[1] For the Zinoviev Letter see http://www.jstor.org/stable/260155.

[2] In OTL this was a Conservative gain from Labour.

[3] Strictly speaking the table should include six candidates elected as Constitutionalists, of which two [including Winston Churchill] would sit as Conservatives, and four as Liberals and whose names appeared on the official list of Liberal candidates.

[4] In OTL the turnout in the 1924 general election was 77.0%.
 
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Although Asquith's defeat in Paisley was disappointing it was not unexpected. In 1923 he had benefitted from a split in the Labour vote. This time the Labour vote was united and even the absence of a Conservative was not enough to prevent him losing to Labour by 2,437 votes. [1]

He was still the leader of the Liberal Party, and he had to decide whether he should return to the House of Commons in a by-election in a safe Liberal seat. After consulting with family and friends that was the decision he made. George Rennie Thorne, the Liberal MP for Wolverhampton East since 1908 agreed to resign and Asquith was nominated by the local Liberal Association as their candidate. [2]

On 12 November 1924, Edmund Dene Morel, Labour MP for Dundee, died as a result of a fatal heart attack. The subsequent by-election on 22 December was won by Thomas Johnston for Labour. [3] The Wolverhampton East by-election on the same day saw the return of Asquith to the House of Commons. He was the leader of the Liberal Party but during his absence from Parliament, Lloyd George was the acting Liberal leader in the House of Commons.

The Conservatives believed that they had won the general election and that they were entitled to form the next government. There were moves by leading Tories to form a coalition with the Liberals which I will write about in my next post.

[1] In OTL Labour won in Paisley by 2,228 votes.

[2] In OTL Asquith accepted the offer by King George V of a peerage as the Earl of Oxford.

[3] This was as in OTL.
 
The Liberal Party in November 1924 has been likened by historians to a princess being courted by the blue prince and the red prince.

The Conservative Shadow Cabinet met on 6 November. Austen Chamberlain proposed entering into negotiations with the Liberals with the intention of forming a coalition government. He said that the Liberal Party were a significant force in politics and that an anti-Socialist alliance of moderate men would be in the best interests of the country. He was backed by his half brother Neville, by Sir William Joynson-Hicks, Viscount Cecil [formerly Lord Robert Cecil], Lord Balfour and Lord Birkenhead.

The leading opponent of a coalition with the Liberals was Leo Amery. He argued that the Conservatives should get the support of ten or so right-wing Liberals to defeat the government in a vote on the King's Speech, and then take office as a minority government with their support. He was supported by William Bridgeman.

Baldwin said that a Conservative/Liberal coalition would have a majority of 175 seats in the House of Commons and would represent the best of the Conservative and Liberal traditions in the country. Edward Wood [the future Lord Halifax] agreed with Baldwin.

The majority of the Shadow Cabinet agreed to form a committee to negotiate with the Liberal Party. It was headed by Austen Chamberlain. The other members were Viscount Cecil, Edward Wood and Sir Laming Worthington-Evans.
 
Extract from a letter from Charles Prestwich Scott [editor of the Manchester Guardian] to Leonard Trelawny Hobhouse [a Liberal economist], dated 6 November 1924. [1]
I wish too very much that we could have a talk on the situation which is extraordinarily difficult. The difficulty lies not only in the situation itself, but in the men who are called upon to handle it. The one thing needful is for the party [the Liberal party] to come to a clear decision on whether to keep Labour in power, but Mr. Asquith has gone off to Egypt [2] and Lloyd George is acting leader.

My feeling would be if possible to work with Labour, but this time on agreed terms, including P.R. But Lloyd George has become increasingly anti-Labour and I can't see him working well with MacDonald, though he might with one of the other Labour leaders.

On 7 November Lloyd George named a committee to negotiate with the Conservatives. It was headed by Sir John Simon. The other members were Sir Edward Grigg, Geoffrey Howard and Sir Alfred Mond. In the general election Simon, Grigg and Mond had been elected in straight fights with Labour, Howard in a three-cornered contest.

Also on 7 November the Labour cabinet agreed to appoint a committee to negotiate with the Liberals on forming a coalition government. It was headed by Arthur Henderson. The other members were Sidney Buxton, Charles Trevelyan and Josiah Wedgwood. All the members were ex-Liberals.

The next day Lloyd George appointed a committee, headed by Sir Donald Maclean, to negotiate with Labour. The other members were William Wedgwood Benn, George Lambert and Walter Runciman. All the members were elected against Conservative opposition.

Of the 97 Liberal MPs, six were elected unopposed, 27 in straight fights with the Conservatives, 20 in straight fights with Labour, and one had only a Christian Pacifist opponent. 39 Liberal MPs were elected in three-cornered contests against Conservative and Labour candidates, one had Conservative and Communist opponents, while another was elected against Labour and Communist opposition. Two Liberal MPs were elected in four-cornered contests against Conservative, Labour and Independent opposition. So 28 Liberal MPs were elected without Conservative opposition, and 35 without Labour opposition. In those seats where Liberals were elected against Conservative and Labour opposition, the Conservatives were in second place, except in three or four seats. Also most Liberal second places were in Conservative rather than Labour seats. So in electoral terms the Conservatives were the main opposition to the Liberals.

[1] It is taken from the book The Political Diaries of C.P. Scott 1911-1928, edited with an introduction and commentary by Trevor Wilson, London: Collins, 1970, with adaptations to take into account the different circumstances of this TL.

[2] In OTL on 6 November Asquith left for a tour of the Middle East and the Nile Valley with his son Arthur. I assume that the tour would have been arranged before 29 October, polling day in the general election. In his biography of Asquith, Roy Jenkins does not mention any arrangements for the tour. In OTL he did not return from the tour until January 1925. In this TL he within a month.
 
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The Conservative and Liberal negotiating committees met for the first time on 8 November 1924. They had copies of the two Party's manifestos for the recent general election. [1] The issues were discussed in the order they appeared in the Conservative manifesto.

The Campbell Case: Nothing in Liberal manifesto.

The Russian Treaty: Both parties were opposed to the treaty with the Soviet Union signed in August 1924. Actually there were two treaties: a commercial treaty and a wider general treaty.

Unemployment: Both parties attacked the Labour government for the increase in unemployment. The Conservatives attacked Labour for abolishing the McKenna duties and Part 2 of the Safeguarding of Industries Act. The Liberal manifesto didn't have a section on this issue, but described how the Liberal Party in Parliament "have pressed the Government week by week to fulfil its pledges to provide work for the unemployed by schemes of National Development, in order that we might be adequately equipped to meet competition of our trade rivals."

Safeguarding of Industry: Nothing in Liberal manifesto, but conflicts with Liberal policy on free trade.

Juvenile Unemployment: Nothing in Liberal manifesto under that heading.

Imperial Preference, Imperial Unity, Imperial Foreign Policy and Imperial Defence: Nothing under these headings in the Liberal manifesto, although it stated that "The Liberal Party are in full sympathy with all efforts for mutual disarmament and for the promotion of international peace."

[1] Here is the Conservative manifesto: http://www.conservativemanifesto.com/1924/1924-conservative-manifesto.shtml, and the Liberal manifesto: http://www.libdemmanifesto.com/1924/1924-liberal-manifesto.shtml.
 
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Continuation of Conservative and Liberal negotiations using their party's manifestos for the recent general election. [1]

Agriculture: The Conservative manifesto proposed several beneficial reforms which the Liberal negotiators supported, but it declared that "We are opposed to land nationalisation, the taxation of land values, and all schemes of spoilaition." The Liberal manifesto in the section headed 'Towns and the Land', proclaimed that "Land Values, created by the activity and expenditure of the community, must be made to contribute to the expenses of maintaining the conveniences, utilities, and amenities of the town." Also the Liberal manifesto in the section headed 'Land and Agriculture', proposed "a complete alteration in the system of land tenure. [...] The Liberal land policy contemplates a land tenure which would combine the advantages of ownership and of tenancy without the disadvantages of either."

Cost of Foodstuffs: The Conservative manifesto proposed a Royal Commission to investigate the cost of foodstuffs. This issue was not mentioned in the Liberal manifesto.

[1] Here is the Conservative manifesto: http://www.conservativemanifesto.com/1924/1924-conservative-manifesto.shtml, and the Liberal manifesto: http://www.libdemmanifesto.com/1924/1924-liberal-manifesto.shtml.
 
Continuation of Conservative and Liberal negotiations using their Party's manifestos for the recent general election. [1]

Housing and Slum Improvement: The Conservative manifesto advocated building more houses for rent using new materials and new methods of construction. "W]ithout waiting for the whole population to be rehoused the standard of existing houses should be made to approximate more nearly to modern ideas."

In the Liberal manifesto the corresponding section was headed 'Towns and the land'. This was much more radical than the Conservative proposals. It demanded the reform of the leasehold syatem. "Occupiers of dwelling houses held on lease must be given the right to purchase their freehold at a price which will not confiscate the investment made in building or buying their homes. Occupiers of shops and business premises on short leases must be enabled to obtain from a Land Court compulsory orders for the renewal of their leases on fair terms." It proposed that "towns must be given powers to acquire at fair prices all land likely to be required in the future for housing, open spaces, and other purposes connected with the health and welfare of their population."

Insurance For Old Age and Widows' Pensions: The Conservative manifesto proposed the establishment of a supplementary contributory scheme under which the pension would start at an earlier age, and be for a larger amount. It stated that "provision should be made for the widow with dependent children to receive her pension as a right, for which payment has been made, instead of a dole or a charity. "

The corresponding section in the Liberal manifesto was headed 'Social Insurance'. This stated that "the various schemes of social and economic insurance which are now in operation should be so amended and consolidated that the benefits provided shall afford a man and his family a reasonable subsistence, without the necessity for applying for relief from the Poor Law. Old Age Pensions must be freed from the disqualifications attaching to thrift. Pensions for widows and allowances for orphans during their school life must be provided."

Education: The Conservative manifesto advocated several reforms such as in reducing the size of classes; the improvement or replacement of insanitary schools; and the "systematic promotion of schemes of adult education under the Local Education Authorities and the further development of all kinds of technical education."

The Liberal manifesto stated that a Liberal government "will press for large additional provision for pupils over 14 years of age with maintenance allowance in suitable cases. It will extend provision for University Education."

Women and Children: The Conservative manifesto proposed a number of reforms. There was no corresponding section in the Liberal manifesto.

Sections in the Liberal manifesto which are not in the Conservative manifesto were Free Trade, Industrial Peace, Temperance, and Electoral Reform.

Negotiations between the Conservative and Liberal representatives took place during Saturday 8 November. They adjourned without any agreement being reached and resumed on Monday 10 November.

Meanwhile discussions between Labour and Liberal representatives had began on 8 November, using the two Party's manifestos as the basis for negotiation. [2]

Much of the Labour manifesto was a defence of its record in government. Among the proposals for future legislation were the following:
"The reorganisation of the whole Mining Industry (in conjunction with By-Products and Power Stations) on the lines of National Ownership,

"The continuance and amendment of the Rent Restriction Acts with a view to providing adequate protection for tenants.

"A drastic dealing with the whole Poor Law System, so as to secure the economy and efficiency of unified administration in each locality, and complete and honourable provision for the sick and infirm, the aged, the children and the able-bodied unemployed apart from the workhouse and pauperism.

"The Taxation of Land Values [...] a full and impartial inquiry by a Royal Commission [into the administration of the Licensing Laws]

"A systematic reorganisation, in the national interest and on terms fair to all concerned, of the whole system of Transport, including the more rapid development of an entirely Unified Railway and Canal System in National Ownership and under exclusively Public Control.

Also a Bill to give votes for women at 21 on the same terms as men.

The Labour and Liberal negotiations adjourned without any agreement being reached and resumed on 10 November.

Although no one on the negotiating teams leaked any information to the press, we now know from histories of the negotiations that by the evening of 8 November agreement was closer between the Labour and Liberal negotiators than it was between the Conservatives and Liberals.
[1] Here is the Conservative manifesto: http://www.conservativemanifesto.com/1924/1924-conservative-manifesto.shtml, and the Liberal manifesto: http://www.libdemmanifesto.com/1924/1924-liberal-manifesto.shtml.

[2] Here is the Labour manifesto: http://www.labourmanifesto.com/1924/1924-labour-manifesto.shtml.
 
From The Political Diaries of C.P. Scott, 1911-1928 [this TL's version rather than OTL's].
On Saturday [8 November 1924] motored to Churt [1] with Mrs Lloyd George and her daughter, Megan. Other expected guests had not arrived so had a walk with Lloyd George and saw a good deal of him that afternoon. Mr and Mrs Snowden, who live nearby, came over after dinner with Philip Kerr who was staying with them. [2]

Lloyd George much preoccupied with his position in the party. He was adamant that he should be leader rather than Asquith, whom he condemned for gross dereliction of duty by going on holiday to Egypt. He intended to manoeuvre Asquith into calling a vote on the leadership which he believed he (Lloyd George) would win.

He poured cold water on rumours that he wanted a coalition with the Tories. In fact he hoped for a coalition with Labour. There was little, if any, difficulty in policy as there was much common ground between the two parties. He was confident rhat MacDonald would appoint him Foreign Secretary in a Labour-Liberal coalition government.

I also met the Snowdens who are frequent guests with Lloyd George. They are evidently very much on the Right of the Labour Party. The "Manchester Guardian" said Mrs Snowden "represents my views". I had some side talk with Snowden. He had evidently wholly disagreed with MacDonald's action in courting a dissolution. He would have worked cordially with the Liberal party and does not wish it to see it reduced to a shadow of its former self, but believes that only P.R. (of which he is an advocate) could save it in the long term. If a Labour-Liberal coaltion was formed he expected Lloyd George to go to the Foreign Office.

Large chunks of this quote are taken from Scott's account in his diary in OTL of his conversations with Lloyd George and the Snowdens at Churt on 29 November 1924. Ramsay MacDonald was Foreign Secretary as well as Prime Minister.

[1] Churt is a village on the Surrey-Hampshire border where Mr and Mrs Lloyd George had a country estate.

[2] Philip Snowden was Chancellor of the Exchequer in the Labour government.
 
The editorial positions of the Liberal supporting national daily newspapers in their editions published on Monday 10 November 1924, were eagerly awaited. The Daily Chronicle, which had been bought by Lloyd George in 1918, came out in favour of a Labour/Liberal coalition government. The Daily News suspected Lloyd George of wanting to take the Liberal leadership from Asquith. It declared a strong preference for a Labour/Liberal government with Asquith in a senior cabinet post. The Manchester Guardian had a front page news story which said that Lloyd George condemned Asquith for "a gross dereliction of duty" in going on holiday to Egypt. He should submit his leadership to a vote of Liberal MPs. It also said that "according to very well-informed sources" Lloyd George would become Foreign Secretary in a Labour/Liberal coalition. It argued strongly in such a coalition of progressive forces. The Westminster Gazette said that the Liberals should remain independent of the Conservatives and Labour, and not enter into coalition with either party.
 
I have decided to speed up the pace of this TL. On Monday 10 November 1924 negotiations between the Conservatives and Liberals broke down, mainly over the issues of free trade/tariffs, housing, land value tax, agriculture. Meanwhile the Labour and Liberal negotiators had agreed to the formation of a Labour/Liberal coalition. The terms of the agreement included the dropping by Labour of nationalisation, and the introduction of a bill, in the first session of the new parliament, which would provide for elections by Single Transferable Vote in parliamentary elections.

Asquith, the leader of the Liberal Party, was staying in a hotel in Cairo, so he was kept informed of the negotiations by telegram. On 11 November he telegraphed his acceptance of a Labour/Liberal coalition. The following day Ramsay MacDonald announced the names of the members of his new cabinet, which were as follows:
Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury: Ramsay MacDonald [Lab]
Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons: Herbert Asquith [Lib]
Lord Chancellor: Viscount Haldane [Lab]
Lord Privy Seal: Lord Parmoor [Lab]
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Philip Snowden [Lab]
Foreign Secretary: David Lloyd George [Lib]
First Lord of the Admiralty: Josiah Wedgwood [Lab]
Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries: Geoffrey Howard [Lib]
Secretary of State for Air: Lord Thomson [Lab]
Colonial Secretary: James Thomas [Lab]
President of the Board of Education: Walter Runciman [Lib]
Minister of Health: John Clynes [Lab]
Secretary of State for India: Earl Beauchamp [Lib]
Minister of Labour: Thomas Shaw [Lab]
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: Alfred Mond [Lib]
Postmaster-General: Vernon Hartshorn [Lab]
Secretary of State for Scotland: William Adamson [Lab]
President of the Board of Trade: Sir John Simon [Lib]
Secretary of State for War: Stephen Walsh [Lab]
First Commissioner of Works: Frederick Jowett [Lab].

There were fourteen Labour members and seven Liberal members. The left-winger, John Wheatley the former Minister of Health, was the highest profile former cabinet minister who was not in the coalition government.
 
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