Richmond falls in 1861

but rather the South & it's determination to hold onto slavery. So the slavery issue must be dealt with, within the CSA itself, before any accord can be reached.QT


That's the way I see it.


If this is such an important issue, why wasn't the Immancipation Proclamation issued the day after Ft. Sumpter? Because Slavery wasn't the root of the problem that caused the Civil War, it was one of the symptoms that antagonized some people in the North.


It was politics actually. Lincoln wanted to preserve the Union, remember, not free the slaves. As such he was keeping a door open for a possible compromise. There's also the PR war of we Yankees are good law abiding citizens & them are Rebs! Plus, as you say below, many in the Union couldn't care less about the slaves. In fact freeing them, any sooner than he did, could see revolts throughout the North akin to the New York riots.The South, though, doesn't have to convince the Northern public, it has to convince the politicans. And both Lincoln & Congress rejected the Crittenden Amendment because it really didn't solve anything.


Black folks weren't exactly welcomed up North with open arms after the war. To call this some kind of Grand Crusade, is touching, but not realistic. It took another 100 years, for Civil rights to become even close to a reality on paper, and its still not in effect in our time. I don't agree with slavery, or racism, but to imply that the Civil War was fought for, and solved the problems, of slaves, is ludicrous.


Who said that the civil war solved the problems of slavery? Who said it was some Grand Crusade? If anything it highlighted the problems even more than ever, but importantly to say that the civil war wasn't fought, over the issue of slavery, really is ludicrous.
 
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Getting back to another post, if Richmond were captured by the Union, it would be a major blow to Confederate industry, such as it was: that would mean the Tredegar iron works--a key to production of artillery and locomotives--would now be in Union hands. That in turn would cripple the South's war effort noticeably: anything along those lines would have to come from relatively new, inexperienced shops or be purchased and somehow gotten through the blockade, at a steep premium.

Furthermore, I would expect that a swift move south would have resulted in the capture of significant quantities of specie, which would further hamper the Confederate economy: I doubt that given the manpower shortage as it was, there would be much sentiment to re-open the largely played out gold fields around Dahlonegah (sp?), GA.

That, in combination with the relatively lukewarm pro-secessionist sentiment in Virginia, North Carolina, and Tennessee suggests strongly to me that the war would be shortened. The fall of New Orleans in 1862 would have split off Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas from the rest of the Confederacy (and Arkansas was also a somewhat reluctant secessionist state). I could see more resources brought to bear on Vicksburg earlier, with the fall of that stronghold in late 1862, followed by a sweep across Mississippi and Alabama. Sherman might well have taken Atlanta in mid-1863, which would have reduced the Confederacy to a rump of Georgia, most of Florida, and South Carolina (a final Confederate capital at Charleston?). An end by late 1863/early 1864 isn't out of the question, which would --ironically--mean a somewhat gentler peace and reconstruction as orchestrated by Lincoln rather than the Radical Republicans.


It also means in a best case scenario the Confederate Army retakes Richmond AFTER the Union destroys the ironworks and any other buildings of military importance. It wouldn't be the case that Johnston shows up and the Union Army flees instantly in abject terror. There would have been plenty of time for them to destroy militarily important buildings. This would make the Confederates hate life.
 
But, show me how the Union takes Richmond in the first place.

McDowell often gets overlooked because he lost his only major battle. Ignoring the fact that he didn't want to fight this particular battle in the first place, everything came down to the fact that both sides had exactly 0 experience (close enough). There was exactly 1 reason why the south won Bull Run tactically (as opposed to if Patterson actually did his job, which would be another TL for a very plausible early Union victory in Virginia). Once Griffin's guns were sent ahead of the line to Henry House Hill and captured, everything broke the Confederate's way. So, here is a possible way the Union could win on HHH.

Burnside and his brigade of Ohioans actually march at a decent pace (not fast per se, but without purposefully moving through Porter's brigade and others), and so arrive on Chinn Ridge in reasonable time. Griffin and Ricketts, being experienced artillery commanders, take it upon themselves to move in support to Chinn Ridge, out of range of musketry but where they can easily hit any Confederates on HHH. DMA seems to like Sherman somewhat, so let's say that he decides to co-ordinate stuff. Instead of sending no more than 2 regiments up HHH at once, Sherman goes over to Burnside and they agree to take their entire brigades and attack HHH jointly at 2:15, Burnside from the west and Sherman from the north. Howard, arriving, will relieve Burnside as in OTL and Hooker, seeing someone actually taking charge of the situation, relieves Sherman. Along the way they will pick up various units that joined the attack in the morning - Sykes' regulars, that Brooklyn regiment I forget the name of, and a regiment or two from Porter that wanted to fight some more. Easily we will have 12 regiments moving up HHH at once, and unlike in OTL they will be co-ordinated.

Jackson has just taken position on the reverse slope of the hill, and even adding Stuart's cavalry regiment and Evan's men from the morning, he has no more than 7 regiments. Plus, since Griffin and Ricketts are still active he is outnumbered in artillery as well.

So the musketry begins around 2:25. Jackson can surely hold on for a while, and at close range cannister fire let's say that not everything goes the Union's way and Burnside is wounded and removed from the field. Just as likely Jackson is as well, but even if not he is attacked in front and left flank. If he falls back at all his right flank becomes exposed too, to Keyes' brigade from the Stone Bridge.

The point of OTL was trading ground and wasted regiments for time. If Jackson can hold for even an hour the remnants of Bartow, Bee, Evans, and Hampton revive and reinforcements start arriving. But outnumbered 2 to 1 and with only green troops, Jackson cannot hold for an hour. If Ricketts moves his guns up now, which he will most likely do, then he can pour canister into the Confederates without fear of capture. That will decide it. 4 Confederate brigades and half their cavalry force will come streaming down from HHH, pelted by artillery fire and in total panic, with no supports in the immediate vicinity.

By now Beauregard and Johnson knew their flank was turned and had sent support, but it came slower than they did. They were with Jackson for the fight, but by 2:25 had not had time to rally many people. In the face of this attack they will be caught up in the rout. Any supports that do come (and there will be some) will come up piecemeal, and will face at least 2 fresh Union brigades on their front and left flank. If they try anything more than a rear-guard action, they will be routed too.

By this point, McDowell will have heard of the success on his right, and ride over to take personal command, while ordering his left wing to strongly attack the remaining fords. Porter (or whoever commanded the left, I forget the name) was quite competent and at worst would force the Confederates to remain along Bull Run. Meanwhile, even with four new Confederate brigades on the left, since they arrived piecemeal they will be unable to co-ordinate. Furthermore, there is no natural defensive position they can take. At the very least there is nothing to stop the Union from sending a brigade down along the west bank of Bull Run and flanking the Confederates out of position 1 by 1 brigade, opening up a new ford each time.

By nightfall the Confederates are at minimum soundly defeated, with no natural defensive position, with a comparatively organized and jubilant Union force in front of them, with a slight superiority in numbers, and at worst with several key Generals dead or wounded (including Jackson, on whom all DMA's hopes seem to lie).

I'm out of time - will respond later with part 2.
 
First, to correct some names from Part 1. "Hooker" should read as Franklin, "the unnamed commander on the right" as Miles, and there are also Scheck's brigade and Willcox's brigade to throw into the fight.

Part 1 is assuming that, after the initial BP, fate is about even to both sides, or even helps the Confederates a little bit. Just as easily, it could happend that no significant Union general is wounded at all, Jackson is felled by close-range musketry, at least one of Beauregard and Johnson is captured, and so is Jefferson Davis (who we recall in OTL rode to the battlefield, insisting on seeing the battle), plus a few thousand Confederate troops prisoner and throw in another three brigades routed from the right. We are not asking for an extremely likely way for the Union to capture Richmond, simply one that is plausible.

But in any case, there will still be some 15-20,000 organized Confederate troops and someone in command of them, let us say Beauregard. At best he will have to fall back on Manassas Junction. There is no natural defense near Manassas Junction. The question becomes, where to retreat to? He has to retreat quickly, otherwise any aggressive move by McDowell and his 4 fresh brigades will easily rout what is left of the Army of Virginia/Army of the Shenandoah. He has essentially 2 options.

1 - retreat along the Orange and Alexandria RR, to the southwest. The main advantage to this route is that it is easy to maintain, and so prevents massive straggling/desertion. There are several disadvantages however:

It is out of the way of Richmond, and shoudl McDowell procede due south he would outflank Beauregard and go unopposed into Richmond.

It opens up the Confederate's left flank to attack from the Valley (more in a moment).

Most importantly, there is no obvious defensive line. The first reasonable location is at Warrenton Junction, behind Cedar Run. This is almost 20 miles from Bull Run, and there surely will be substantial desertions. Also, at the junction is the Warrenton Branch RR, where a line comes from the Shenandoah. By this point it will be clear that having Patterson in the valley is pointless as there are no Confederates there anymore. He could be recalled and joined to McDowell directly. More likely, he will advance down the valley to subjugate that area. He would able to get another 18,000 Union troops easily on Beauregard's left flank, virtue of the RR.

One final bad point, since it is along a RR, it will be easy for McDowell to receive supplies.

2 - retreat due south along backroads. It will be hard to supply either army on this route, and there are great opportunities for desertion.

However, Beauregard will probably take this route because of its advantages - it places him squarely between Washington and Richmond, and it has some semi-defensible river lines. The first, Cedar Run, is here only 7-8 miles south of Bull Run. It is another ~18 miles to Chopawamsic Creek, which has some possibility of being defended. Then it is 5 miles to Aquia Creek, similarly a delaying action. By this point the Potomac is on the Confederate's right, so they might retreat more slowly. However, retreat they must. They are outnumbered now easily 2 to 1 (more if Patterson gets moving) and demoralized. Plus, at this point Telegraph Road joins the retreating roads, so supplies can come direct to McDowell again, as well as heavy artillery. From Aquia it is about 10 miles to the Rappahanock, and Fredericksburg. Finally, a real defensive position.

The trouble is that even if Beauregard can successfully retreat so far without losing many supplies, cannons, and especially troops due to desertion, McDowell certainly will not. It will still be at best 2:1 ratio at Fredericksburg, and now McDowell has the rail-line to Aquia for supplies. He can wait there for a month if need be, until Patterson arrives, at which point his numerical superiority will reach 3:1.

Considering that Grant had 2:1 in 1864, that Lee actually did receive re-inforcements at strategic locations (North Anna), and that in 1861 there are virtually no prepared defensive works even at Richmond, if McDowell cannot capture Richmond within 2 weeks of reaching Fredericksburg, he must be a combination of all the worst aspects of McClellan, Pope, Hooker, Burnside, Bragg, Polk, Ewell, Hood, Buell, and a few dozen other bad generals.
 
Richmond falls. That's a huge morale loss. Anyway, let's say that most of the politicians (including President Davis himself) escape, and Montgomery becomes the capital of the Confederacy once again. Union soldiers won't be able to conquer the majority of Virginia for the rest of the year, maybe even won't until 1863 because of their lack of skill. Their will be a stalemate in Virginia unless Johnston goes on the offensive to seize Richmond (which would be more or less idiotic). Davis may propose a bill to enlist Confederate blacks into the military though this may be too early. Crushing blows can do that though.
 
Richmond falls. That's a huge morale loss. Anyway, let's say that most of the politicians (including President Davis himself) escape, and Montgomery becomes the capital of the Confederacy once again. Union soldiers won't be able to conquer the majority of Virginia for the rest of the year, maybe even won't until 1863 because of their lack of skill. Their will be a stalemate in Virginia unless Johnston goes on the offensive to seize Richmond (which would be more or less idiotic). Davis may propose a bill to enlist Confederate blacks into the military though this may be too early. Crushing blows can do that though.


If Richmond falls the Confederacy is lucky if it lasts 6 more months. The money it got for its bonds from English lords won't come in as it is apparent then they will lose. Also the Union will destroy a lot of the South's industry. I can't see how the Confederacy can survive such a large part of its industry destroyed or worse, used by the Union.
 
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