Richard II dies in 1399

I don't think much really changes here, tbh. Bolingbroke and Arundel will have already left for England before the news of Richard's death can reach them. Mortimer's claim is an unserious one -- literally no one wants a child king after Richard and there's no record that anyone pressed the Mortimer claim in OTL before the Percy rebellion and the resulting Tripartite Indenture of 1405.

The lords in OTL voted on who to take as king -- Lancaster or York. I suspect they'd do the same here and come to the same conclusion. Henry has tremendous popular support at this time, Langley has no interest in the throne and is both old and ill, and Norwich made himself many enemies supporting Richard's destruction of Gloucester and Arundel. The lords called for Norwich, the Hollands, and the rest of the counter-Appellants to be executed in OTL 1399. No way they're taking Norwich as king after Richard's death.

Henry would probably still pursue a policy of reconciliation with the counter-Appellants, stripping them of their 1397-1399 gains but otherwise leaving them be. (He had a personal reason to do this, as his half-brother, John Beaufort, was among them.) He may not, however, surrender all of the new financial rights that Richard claimed for himself towards the end of his reign, which would put the crown in a much stronger financial position during his reign. He would also probably not face immediate rebellion in the form of the Epiphany Rising, as there is no clear alternative to Henry at this stage. Again, Langley is old and ill, Norwich is a pariah, and Mortimer is a child. Who is the anti-Henry standard-bearer?

The conspirators behind the Epiphany Rising surviving in ATL could have a fairly significant butterfly effect on the two major rebellions of Henry IV's reign. Firstly, Salisbury held lands in southern Wales and having a major magnate in the area instead of a child in attainder/wardship greatly changes the power dynamics of the Glyndwr Rising. The Greys aren't suddenly so powerful in the Welsh marches in ATL and thus are less likely to provoke Glyndwr into rebellion and -- even if they did -- Salisbury is nearby and has an interest in putting it down. (Other than Beaufort, Salisbury strikes me as the counter-Appellant most likely to reconcile with Henry IV. Salisbury had the least to lose, as most of his royal favors came before 1397, and he had shared crusading history with Henry and their children had grown up together.) Second, if Percy still rebels in ATL, then he could call on the Hollands, Despenser, etc., as possible allies in rebellion. Unclear if Percy still rebels, though.

tl;dr: I don't know that that much changes. Bolingbroke still becomes king, but may have a somewhat easier reign.
 
But if Henry IV comes to the throne in a less disputed way couldn't that butterfly away the WOTR?
I don't think much really changes here, tbh. Bolingbroke and Arundel will have already left for England before the news of Richard's death can reach them. Mortimer's claim is an unserious one -- literally no one wants a child king after Richard and there's no record that anyone pressed the Mortimer claim in OTL before the Percy rebellion and the resulting Tripartite Indenture of 1405.

The lords in OTL voted on who to take as king -- Lancaster or York. I suspect they'd do the same here and come to the same conclusion. Henry has tremendous popular support at this time, Langley has no interest in the throne and is both old and ill, and Norwich made himself many enemies supporting Richard's destruction of Gloucester and Arundel. The lords called for Norwich, the Hollands, and the rest of the counter-Appellants to be executed in OTL 1399. No way they're taking Norwich as king after Richard's death.

Henry would probably still pursue a policy of reconciliation with the counter-Appellants, stripping them of their 1397-1399 gains but otherwise leaving them be. (He had a personal reason to do this, as his half-brother, John Beaufort, was among them.) He may not, however, surrender all of the new financial rights that Richard claimed for himself towards the end of his reign, which would put the crown in a much stronger financial position during his reign. He would also probably not face immediate rebellion in the form of the Epiphany Rising, as there is no clear alternative to Henry at this stage. Again, Langley is old and ill, Norwich is a pariah, and Mortimer is a child. Who is the anti-Henry standard-bearer?

The conspirators behind the Epiphany Rising surviving in ATL could have a fairly significant butterfly effect on the two major rebellions of Henry IV's reign. Firstly, Salisbury held lands in southern Wales and having a major magnate in the area instead of a child in attainder/wardship greatly changes the power dynamics of the Glyndwr Rising. The Greys aren't suddenly so powerful in the Welsh marches in ATL and thus are less likely to provoke Glyndwr into rebellion and -- even if they did -- Salisbury is nearby and has an interest in putting it down. (Other than Beaufort, Salisbury strikes me as the counter-Appellant most likely to reconcile with Henry IV. Salisbury had the least to lose, as most of his royal favors came before 1397, and he had shared crusading history with Henry and their children had grown up together.) Second, if Percy still rebels in ATL, then he could call on the Hollands, Despenser, etc., as possible allies in rebellion. Unclear if Percy still rebels, though.

tl;dr: I don't know that that much changes. Bolingbroke still becomes king, but may have a somewhat easier reign.

Seems reasonable to me, and makes planning a timeline much easier
 
But if Henry IV comes to the throne in a less disputed way couldn't that butterfly away the WOTR?
Well imho the war of the roses is butterflied as long as we don't have otl henry vi. now someone writing a tl with this pod could very well give us otl henry vi but i think it's highly unlikely. (which if you'll note means that the lancasters probably keep the throne for much longer!)
 
Well imho the war of the roses is butterflied as long as we don't have otl henry vi. now someone writing a tl with this pod could very well give us otl henry vi but i think it's highly unlikely.
Agreed, since the marriages made could be very different, nearly every POD at this time would butterfly away OTL Henry VI
(which if you'll note means that the lancasters probably keep the throne for much longer!)
Ideally, forever!
 
But if Henry IV comes to the throne in a less disputed way couldn't that butterfly away the WOTR?
Could. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Depends on how you imagine the reigns of Henry V and his successor play out after ATL Henry IV.


I’d also imagine this means henry of Monmouth could end up marrying Isabella of Valois
Now there's an interesting thing that I hadn't thought of. An early marriage for Monmouth has enormous consequences in the long run, even if he dies as young as he did in OTL.
 
Could. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Depends on how you imagine the reigns of Henry V and his successor play out after ATL Henry IV.



Now there's an interesting thing that I hadn't thought of. An early marriage for Monmouth has enormous consequences in the long run, even if he dies as young as he did in OTL.
Most definitely older children are likely etc
 
Most definitely older children are likely etc
Yes. As I've said in other threads -- in fact, this topic is what got me to join this forum! -- I think Monmouth and Isabella wedding and having children in the 00s may well be the key to English victory in the Lancastrian War. (At least insofar as reclaiming the Angevin Empire territories.)
 
Yes. As I've said in other threads -- in fact, this topic is what got me to join this forum! -- I think Monmouth and Isabella wedding and having children in the 00s may well be the key to English victory in the Lancastrian War. (At least insofar as reclaiming the Angevin Empire territories.)
Oh? Interesting, will have to have a look :)
 
If Henry Bolingbroke gets the Crown peacefully than he may get the support of parliament to put down the rebellions in Wales and Scottish border war. Henry Bolingbroke may also live a lot longer due to his health not the claiming due to the extreme stress he was under in OTL. He woke up in 1404 or 1405 screaming his enemies are burning him alive. He my also get his war with France as well there is another butterfly why is that the child of Thomas Duke of Gloucester may also survive thereby preserving a male line an direct descendant of Edward III. Alternatively if the nobility is United then I believe the crown would pass to House Mortimer
 
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