Richard I of England

That would be the case if one brother held all the titles and then passed them all on to the next brother. But what Henry did was award all his titles to all his sons (and, tellingly, refused to actually allow his eldest to actually have any power despite having the title) and then whenever one was removed from the succession (i.e. by dying) each son was forced to surrender all their titles and pass them on to the next son - at least with the prime roles, anyway. In a primogeniture case, each successive "oldest surviving" son would just start accumulating titles through succession, or acquire them at once, but wouldn't lose any. What Henry was doing wasn't primogeniture, it was "ranked-by-importance". As a standing member of the chain of succession, John would claim superiority to his nephew.

The problem is that when Henry died it went to the oldest son, Richard. You don't see John given Normandy and/or Anjou, you see Richard getting (in right of his father, since Eleanor's still alive and kicking) Normandy and Anjou and England - same as Richard's own son is getting unless Richard develops a soft spot for John for some reason.

So for the succession, I'd say it was definitely primogeniture. That Henry in life played games with empty titles doesn't really give John a legitimate position.

Besides, all this is moot as, as I mentioned, the meddling of Philip Augustus would mean that, valid claim or no, John would eventually be manipulated into open rebellion during which he would claim the crown of England, anyway...
But it would have a great deal to do with whether or not anyone supports him as a legitimate claimant as opposed to just an ambitious and unpopular prat.
 
Would John's position as Lord of Ireland help him at all?
Could the Regency counter Philippe by offering John another go at becoming King of Ireland?

I do think John is more likely to claim a role in the Regency - likely full Regent - instead of the Throne if he's unlikey to be supported as King.
He could even end up a Richard III figure with Arthur playing Henry VII
 
Would John's position as Lord of Ireland help him at all?
Could the Regency counter Philippe by offering John another go at becoming King of Ireland?

I do think John is more likely to claim a role in the Regency - likely full Regent - instead of the Throne if he's unlikey to be supported as King.
He could even end up a Richard III figure with Arthur playing Henry VII

That seems sensible to me - and most interesting.
 
Ok so at Richard's death c1199 we have young King Henry III c8 years old Duke of Normandy & Aquitaine, Count of Anjou-Maine-Touraine, under the Regency of his uncle John, Lord of Ireland, Earl of Gloucester. William Marshall and his grandmother Eleanor coDuchess of Aquitaine also act as advisors.
Arthur is Duke of Brittany and supported by Phillipe over possible claims to AMT.
 
Ok so at Richard's death c1199 we have young King Henry III c8 years old Duke of Normandy & Aquitaine, Count of Anjou-Maine-Touraine, under the Regency of his uncle John, Lord of Ireland, Earl of Gloucester. William Marshall and his grandmother Eleanor coDuchess of Aquitaine also act as advisors.
Arthur is Duke of Brittany and supported by Phillipe over possible claims to AMT.

Marshall's not Earl of Pembroke yet, correct?

And this looks good. Philippe might wait until he has an excuse to bring out the Arthur card, but if Arthur asserts a claim there, Phillip backing it up - at least long enough to cause trouble - seems likely.
 
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