Rhodesia, The Dream Of Cecil And A Powerful South Africa

Clearthor

Banned
This has been discussed to some degree before, but it usually falls into the realm of uncertainty and jumping ahead in time quickly after 2 pages.

For those interested, you might have heard of the 1922 October referendum in what was then Southern Rhodesia. The choice was between responsible government or Union with South Africa.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Rhodesian_government_referendum,_1922

Prior to this, there was a referendum in Northern Rhodesia (Zambia) about joining the Southern one much earlier than occurred in OTL. 1922 February.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Rhodesian_amalgamation_referendum,_1922


The implications if the two Rhodesia's united with South Africa I believe are much more vast and far reaching than many might believe. The common assumption is that as in OTL minority rule falls apart due to revolution/reform/sanctions, or that a pariah Apartheid state exists to this day.

However I don't think it is that simple.

Most of the prior discussion exclude Zambia/Northern Rhodesia from the equation. This is critical. The one thing that made South Africa significant in the world was it domination of the precious metal market during the second half of the 20th century, much thanks to it's gold.

In similar ways, a country like Saudi Arabia is excused for human rights violations due to the influence it possess on the oil market.

So the goal here is that in the ATL there is no official sanctions or pariah status given onto South Africa, that it encourages vast immigration from Europe, and that it becomes a significant power on the world stage.
This also includes a non-discriminatory (no official Apartheid) state in Southern Africa and in the end with a relatively large European minority (15-20% of the population).

A tall order, but I believe doable if one thinks outside the box.
Try to keep an open mind as we navigate through possible occurrences and implications. This is my first post, one I plan to thoroughly enjoy as well.

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To start off, the Rhodesian referendums need to be successful to ensure a large resource rich state and a United Party victory in 1948, decisively defeating the National Party which implemented Apartheid and strict immigration policies in OTL.

A good POD would be sometime before the referendums. I don't think one should just assume they should be successful without coherent reasoning.

Amalgamation (Unity) of Northern Rhodesia with Southern Rhodesia was supported by Francis Chaplin, who was Administrator of both Northern and Southern Rhodesia. Opponents included Leopold Moore, a prominent politician and Advisory Council member.

Now the first idea is what needs to have happened to woo the majority of the 1 727 voters to vote for unity instead of crown colony.

Feel free to share your thoughts on this. :)
 
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NoMommsen

Donor
I am anything else than educated on polical developments in that region, but ...

As far as I understand your two wiki sources, the plans for a responsible goverment in Southern Rhosesia as well as its approval by the commision of Earl Buxton were/might be known in Northern Rhodesia before their February referendum.

Maybe some 'campaigning' of South Africa and the esp.(?) British South Africa Company, viewing an even larger, possible gain after an successfull amalgamation process with a then unified Rhodesia, with 'economic' arguements/promises (what might include some bribing ;)) could turn the tide, even if only with a narrow margin in the Northern Rhodesia referendum.
 

Clearthor

Banned
One of the larger reasons for Northern Rhodesia voting against unity with the South was that there were more whites in Rhodesia. This meant they would lose economic and political power as Southern Rhodesia becomes the de facto economic powerhouse of the country.

Perhaps some sort of special representation could have been arranged for NR?

Or a bit more radical, Cecil Rhodes surviving his heart attack in 1902 (Age 48) and championing the unity? Or some other public figure.
 
To what extent would Northern and Southern Rhodesia change the demographics of South Africa, both in terms of race and in terms of English/Afrikaans or English/Boer numbers?
 

Clearthor

Banned
To what extent would Northern and Southern Rhodesia change the demographics of South Africa, both in terms of race and in terms of English/Afrikaans or English/Boer numbers?

Well they would add about 40 000 whites and 3 million blacks, about 90% English. This gets added to South Africa's 1.4 million whites, 600k coloureds, 200k Asians/Indians and 5.8 million blacks.

Vast amount of immigration has not started in Rhodesia yet.
 

Clearthor

Banned
The 1946 population would be about 2.4 million whites (100k of that from the Rhodesias) 1.44 million Afrikaners, 960k English speakers.

Coloureds would number about 1 million and Asians/indians about 300k

Blacks would number about 13.2 million.

All these figures are from OTL sources. The turning point comes during the 1948 elections where if the Rhodesia's were added to the country, they would overwhelmingly vote for the United Party. OTL the United party did win the popular vote but did not win the majority of seats. This put the Nats in power OTL, who implemented Apartheid and strict immigration control to preserve "Afrikaner" culture.

In ATL the United Party comes to power. They did have plans to eventually allow blacks to vote, but it is never specified when this would happen. Also, they would have obviously pushed more for immigration from Europe during the post-war years than South Africa did in OTL.
 
In ATL the United Party comes to power. They did have plans to eventually allow blacks to vote, but it is never specified when this would happen. Also, they would have obviously pushed more for immigration from Europe during the post-war years than South Africa did in OTL.

Any chance TTL's South Africa would be more willing to accept European refugees before and during the war? Including Jews?
 

Clearthor

Banned
Any chance TTL's South Africa would be more willing to accept European refugees before and during the war? Including Jews?

Depends. I think a larger state (all the countries combined with more space) with a more attractive entrance (going through Cape Town instead of braving the Rhodesian bush to find some land) might attract some more but not a significant difference from OTL.

However, ATL South Africa might actively try to balance out it's population there to more reflect the rest of the country, but this is mere speculation. Also, the resources there could be developed faster than OTL, meaning an earlier drive for immigration from job seekers.

How many Jews and other refugees actually fled Europe between 1920 and 1940? We could assume an x percentage more taking South Africa as an option in this scenario between those dates.
 
Would some greater form of "federalism", initially as a compromise to appease the Rhodesian whites by design and the Afrikaner by accident, giving just enough independence to bridge you to this union have worked? Would this have permitted the various peoples to co-exist without the fear of being assimilated? My understanding is that more than just the whites feared being lost in the mix. Could this take you to the modern prosperous SA possible given its resources and diverse populace?
 

Clearthor

Banned
Would some greater form of "federalism", initially as a compromise to appease the Rhodesian whites by design and the Afrikaner by accident, giving just enough independence to bridge you to this union have worked? Would this have permitted the various peoples to co-exist without the fear of being assimilated? My understanding is that more than just the whites feared being lost in the mix. Could this take you to the modern prosperous SA possible given its resources and diverse populace?

Well, the only section of the population with any real fear of cultural assimilation were the Afrikaners. Due to the influx of workers at the mines from black homelands and overseas, it drove them to vote for the National Party.

I doubt federalism will work for this scenario as the point is that nationalist elements die out in favor of a more open door immigration policy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fagan_Commission https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sauer_Commission
 
I doubt federalism will work for this scenario as the point is that nationalist elements die out in favor of a more open door immigration policy.

Thank you, but those two reports basically left the options open, we know how the Afrikaners voted, my assumption is that within a "federal" structure the pressure feels less, especially as the Afrikaners get to "rule" within their enclaves much like SA worked under the later Aparteid, a "separateness". My only contacts in SA were English and Zulu so I have a very limited notion that is skewed to their perspectives. From them I get that the many groups were not clamoring to assimilate, if greater economic opportunity had occurred for all groups they might have bridged over Aparteid or it might have been watered down enough to give this "Greater SA" the time it needed to move towards integration. Although I could see even deeper retrenchment by the Afrikaners if the "English" populace now seems dominant so there you go!
 

Clearthor

Banned
Union of South Africa in 1946:

JMfOp8L.png
 

Clearthor

Banned
The Cold War should be interesting, do you think Angola and Mozambique will still fall to communist rebels as OTL? I understand Portugal left due to the revolution at the homefront, but perhaps they can maintain the colonies or if need be cede them to South Africa?
 
Well they would add about 40 000 whites and 3 million blacks, about 90% English. This gets added to South Africa's 1.4 million whites, 600k coloureds, 200k Asians/Indians and 5.8 million blacks.

Vast amount of immigration has not started in Rhodesia yet.

This is incorrect, Afrikaners made a substantial portion of early immigrants to the Rhodesias, and in 1921, members of the Dutch Reformed Church 20% of the white population in Southern Rhodesia. By 1951, that number had dropped to 13.5%. In Northern Rhodesia, 20% of the European population were members of the Dutch Reformed Church by 1951. South African born immigrants outnumbered British born settlers until 1949.
 
Yah, Afrikaners made up an important early population of white Rhodesians in both parts. They retained their influence post mass post war British migration.
 

Clearthor

Banned
This is incorrect, Afrikaners made a substantial portion of early immigrants to the Rhodesias, and in 1921, members of the Dutch Reformed Church 20% of the white population in Southern Rhodesia. By 1951, that number had dropped to 13.5%. In Northern Rhodesia, 20% of the European population were members of the Dutch Reformed Church by 1951. South African born immigrants outnumbered British born settlers until 1949.

Let's just stick to "whites" for now when talking statistics. It gets too complicated trying to divide it between Afrikaners and English speakers.
 
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