Rhodesia remains under White rule

Ibn Warraq

Banned
I have heard up until 1995 Mugabe was a almost a nice guy, but after 1995 he suddenly changed into this African Hitler-type, racist-type facist ruler.

What went wrong?

From what I've heard that's a bit of a stretch. There were many complaints about Zimbabwe basically being a one party state with severe limitations on opponents in the late 80s and early 90s, but Mugabe unquestionably became much, much worse. I think he went from being maybe a little better than Daniel Arap Moi to being as bad if not worse than Khaddafi.
 

Ibn Warraq

Banned
Or perhaps he simply sees what very few leaders of African countries have seen, and that holding onto power indefinitely is unhealthy, just as being the CEO of a company for too long is unhealthy. Off the top of my head, I can only think of Mandela, Julius Nyerere of Tanzania and Quett Masire of Botswana who stood down voluntarily, without being forced out by term limits, or without being voted out.

Mugabe would have been seen in the same light as Mandela now if he'd stood down anytime before 1995. The Matabeleland massacres of the early '80s and the assasination of Herbert Chitepo would all have been conveniently forgotten.

I don't see South African or British pressure making him stand down.

And yeah, apparently there are a number of Zanu-PF bigwigs who are privately backing Simba Makoni's presidential run, but are too scared to speak out. The irony of Makoni running is that he could split the opposition vote, and allow Mugabe to sneak in (which he will probably do anyway, with all the rigging and intimidation which will undoubtedly occur).

This is a good example of why I think George Washington set a good example when he decided to step down after two terms and why I think term limits are a good idea.
 
Who came with that theory?

not sure

if it was syphilis that caused him to go gaga then he was probably infected somewhere between 85 and 94.

I find it unlikely that he has got syphilis though - insanity occurs as a consequence of tertiary or neurosyphilis and it's very unlikely he would have survived 10+ years once the infection got to that stage, especially with the apparent health he currently enjoys

although if he has gone insane due to untreated syphillis he's going to get a very unpleasent death
 
What doomed Ian Smith's Rhodesia more than anything was a fact that the Rhodesian cabinet figured that they could win, led by van der Byl, who I might point out was probably the biggest, stupidest idiot in the history of colonial Africa. This guy ticked off and/or disgusted EVERYBODY, even Smith.

The best case scenario IMO is for 1980 to go as OTL, but in 1982 have Mugabe, Nkomo and Smith continue to work with each other. A large number of Rhodesians - something like half - had no intentions of leaving even with a black leader, and what drove them out was Gukurahindi and Mugabe's personal army, the Fifth Brigade. So, keep Mugabe and Nkomo from going their separate ways, and you keep Gukurahindi from going down, which in itself is massively helpful to Zimbabwe's economy.

van der Byl and the like would have ditched (as in OTL) but you'd find that the remaining whites would have played the game like Smith, Timothy Stamps and Roy Bennett did - competence over race. Not easy in Zimbabwe, but not impossible.

White rule? Impossible. It couldn't stand. If what they got in 1980 at Lancaster stood, that would have been about as good as it got. Best case for the whites is that the half of the Rhodesian whites stay (leaving Zimbabwe's white population by 1990 at about 130,000-140,000) and that Mugabe allows a handful of white seats to stay, say 5 or 6. Smith would occupy one probably until he died, and would have likely stayed the de facto leader of Zimbabwean whites. But what happened in 1980-81 was as good as it could have got. When Mugabe sacked Nkomo in 1982 and then accused him of plotting against him, then the crap began.

As for the theory of Mugabe have syphilis, keep in mind that several studies have proven that for many, syphilis attacks the mental functions first. Marius may well be correct in what happened.
 

Trolim

Banned
As far as insurgency being big and bad:

From everything I've read, whites in Rhodesia treated the black population much better than in South Africa, so rebelliousness was much more minor than you would think with the smaller white population.
 

Neroon

Banned
Slightly Off-topic, but related question: Lets say things in Rhodesia happen quicker and Mugabe also goes "Dark Side" faster than OTL, with basically the OTL nastyness happening while Apartheid is still on in South Africa. What would happen there?
Would all the Whites be scared into clinging on to power whatever the cost?
Would Apartheid still fall, but with some sort of European style minority protection laws only for whites in this case?
Or total escalation until it all falls apart?
 
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