Rhodesia/Angola/Mozambique/South Africa Alternate History

If you have apartheid survive through the 1990s. South Africa could pick up Russia and China as sources of investment and protection from sanctions.

But then you run into the problem of the fact that White South Africans will be faced with massive instability pretty much all the time. Beyond the economic issues of this, not many people want to live in a totalitarian state, even one where their self-appointed leaders rule it unquestioningly.
 
But then you run into the problem of the fact that White South Africans will be faced with massive instability pretty much all the time.
You could get around this with a stronger Russia during the 1990s under Putin-esque leader or another great power protector like China also using friendly African countries to get around western sanctions would help

not many people want to live in a totalitarian state, even one where their self-appointed leaders rule it unquestioningly.
Apartheid was relatively democratic for the White population
 
Apartheid was relatively democratic for the White population

Rick Turner, David Webster, Marius Schoon, Ruth First, Max du Preez, Jacques Pauw, Albie Sachs, Anton Lubowski, Beyers Naude, Donald Woods, Helen Suzman, and a couple of others would like to have a word with you.
 
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You could get around this with a stronger Russia during the 1990s under Putin-esque leader or another great power protector like China also using friendly African countries to get around western sanctions would help


Apartheid was relatively democratic for the White population
I don’t see why any of those pod’s would lead to a stronger Russia in the 1990’s. And wouldn’t a stronger post-cold war Russia just continue the Cold War politicking? They already have a powerful network of allies in Africa with the ideological justification of opposing South Africa and white supremacy. Regardless the Sanctions weren’t the only, or the biggest, economic problem caused by apartheid. There was a massive skills shortage caused by deliberate undereducation that couldn’t be solved by white immigration. The South African economy was in a terrible state because of apartheid even before the sanctions. I don’t think it’s possible to develop a sustainable South African economy without ending, or substantially reducing, economic segregation and I don’t that’s possible in the long-run without fundamentally undermining white minority rule.
 
I wanted to imagine how these countries might have survived into the present day.

My POD's would be
  • Slightly earlier settlement of Angola and Mozambique, so that they have a slightly larger white population. I saw another thread imagining something like this called Angola Avante .
  • Portugal becomes democratic at some point and ITTL Angola and the southern part of Mozambique both do a Rhodesia and become independent. They both receive support from South Africa/Rhodesia.
  • United Party wins in 1948 and because of this South Africa has a more liberal form of segregation like Rhodesia. No apartheid means the British allow Namibia/Botswana/Lesotho/Swaziland to join SA.
  • In 1922 Northern Rhodesia votes to join Southern Rhodesia.
  • At some point SA becomes a republic.
  • At some point they form some kind of economic community like the EEC.
  • At some point they form some kind of military alliance like Nato.
  • SA still develops nukes.
  • Late 80s/Early 90s these four nations start coming under more severe sanctions, however they aren't too severe because of these four countries huge natural reserves.
  • They ride out the 90s and the commodities boom of the 2000s helps strengthen their position.
  • During the same period of the last bullet point they develop stronger ties with China because of China's need for raw materials. They also encourage white migrants from the ex-USSR which helps them develop closer ties with Russia.
Thoughts?
They could try to legitimize their rule somehow, not sure though.
 
I don’t see why any of those pod’s would lead to a stronger Russia in the 1990’s. And wouldn’t a stronger post-cold war Russia just continue the Cold War politicking? They already have a powerful network of allies in Africa with the ideological justification of opposing South Africa and white supremacy.
You could have Gorbachev maintain the Union only be removed from power in the mid 1990s.

There was a massive skills shortage caused by deliberate undereducation that couldn’t be solved by white immigration.
Did this affect the white population ?

Rick Turner, David Webster, Marius Schoon, Ruth First, Max du Preez, Jacques Pauw, Albie Sachs, Anton Lubowski, Beyers Naude, Donald Woods, Helen Suzman, and a couple of others would like to have a word with you.
Like I what said it was relatively democratic as long as you didn't oppose apartheid.
 
You could have Gorbachev maintain the Union only be removed from power in the mid 1990s.


Did this affect the white population ?


Like I what said it was relatively democratic as long as you didn't oppose apartheid.

A place is hardly democratic if you can't oppose one of the tenets that a country is built on.

And even if you didn't oppose apartheid openly, there was no real freedom of movement, association, speech, etc.
 
Did this affect the white population ?
Yes, that’s the whole point. It’s why apartheid was loosened in OTL. It dragged down growth and made business more difficult for the white middle class. By preventing black people from entering skilled employment apartheid drove up the wages of skilled white labour to the point where it undermined the economy. In the last twenty years of apartheid South Africa went through 6 recessions. The white middle class felt it and it was then who pushed for a weakening of economic apartheid.
 
Botha might have adopted United Party policies. Limited African representation in the parliament, a race federation, as well an alternative to Bantustans, and integration. A federal council, earlier end to land restriction, pass laws and armed forces, controlled by the bantu.

How do you get a "race federation" and Bantustans but also integration?

How do you end land restrictions but still have Bantustans ?

The premise seems impossible
 
The United party was opposed to bantustans. The terroritories were to be part of the republic on a federal basis. Similar to Australian and us native reserves
 
I wanted to imagine how these countries might have survived into the present day.

My POD's would be
  • Slightly earlier settlement of Angola and Mozambique, so that they have a slightly larger white population. I saw another thread imagining something like this called Angola Avante .
  • Portugal becomes democratic at some point and ITTL Angola and the southern part of Mozambique both do a Rhodesia and become independent. They both receive support from South Africa/Rhodesia.
  • United Party wins in 1948 and because of this South Africa has a more liberal form of segregation like Rhodesia. No apartheid means the British allow Namibia/Botswana/Lesotho/Swaziland to join SA.
  • In 1922 Northern Rhodesia votes to join Southern Rhodesia.
  • At some point SA becomes a republic.
  • At some point they form some kind of economic community like the EEC.
  • At some point they form some kind of military alliance like Nato.
  • SA still develops nukes.
  • Late 80s/Early 90s these four nations start coming under more severe sanctions, however they aren't too severe because of these four countries huge natural reserves.
  • They ride out the 90s and the commodities boom of the 2000s helps strengthen their position.
  • During the same period of the last bullet point they develop stronger ties with China because of China's need for raw materials. They also encourage white migrants from the ex-USSR which helps them develop closer ties with Russia.
Thoughts?

The basic issue is that white racial supremacy is inherently unstable , politically and economically. White-only governments, however less harsh than the Nats, will always be opposed - by whichever racial group you pick and also by a significant number of whites. And the economic effect of segregation means opposition from capital
 
How about this.
1966: John Vorster becomes Prime Minister
1968: South Africa gives KaNgwane to Swaziland and an enlarged QwaQwa to Lesotho
.

This was opposed by then governments of Lesotho and Swaziland OTL . Any independent African government going this route would have been ostracised - as ended up happening with Kamuzu Banda, just for collaboration
 
This was opposed by then governments of Lesotho and Swaziland OTL . Any independent African government going this route would have been ostracised - as ended up happening with Kamuzu Banda, just for collaboration

This may be true for Lesotho, but not for Swaziland. Saziland actively pursued a irredentist goal of annexing KaNgwane. There was a level of negotiation on this with the RSA, but it was shelved due to popular outcry in KaNgwane. Should this have been successful, I don't see it being impossible for Lesotho wanting a similar deal.
 
This may be true for Lesotho, but not for Swaziland. Saziland actively pursued a irredentist goal of annexing KaNgwane. There was a level of negotiation on this with the RSA, but it was shelved due to popular outcry in KaNgwane. Should this have been successful, I don't see it being impossible for Lesotho wanting a similar deal.

What is being ignored in this approach is that such irridentism requires accepting the Bantustan system as legitimate - and thus accepting white ownership of most of the land in South Africa - and this was anathema to most African leaders
 
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