RFK runs earlier

What if Robert Kennedy had run for president when Allard Lowenstien asked him to do it? If he is not competing with McCarthy for the anti war vote, although I don't see him winning New Hampshire, he wins the rest of the primaries by landslides. He can claim victory in California earlier and has a good chance of missing Sirhan Sirhan. His peformance would look very impressive to the party leadership so he has got a better shot at the nomination and then could lead a united party to victory.
 
What if Robert Kennedy had run for president when Allard Lowenstien asked him to do it? If he is not competing with McCarthy for the anti war vote, although I don't see him winning New Hampshire, he wins the rest of the primaries by landslides. He can claim victory in California earlier and has a good chance of missing Sirhan Sirhan. His peformance would look very impressive to the party leadership so he has got a better shot at the nomination and then could lead a united party to victory.

If RFK jumps in earlier, dunno if LBJ goes ahead with his planned SOTU retirement announcement. But if he does, then HHH gets in earlier and sticks to his OTL proxy strategy. The only place where all 3 were on the ballot- SD- HHH got crushed by nearly 2-1 in his birth state, 50-30-20.

Why wouldn't RFK win NH? He has 100% name ID, loads of money and it's in his New England backyard. McCarthy only "lost" by 700-odd votes, almost certainly that can flip.

If he gets in earlier that means a slower campaign pace, so butterflies probably ensure his survival.
 
Kennedy becomes THE anti-war/anti-LBJ candidate with McCarthy out of the race. He probably wins New Hampshire and Wisconsin, as well as any other primaries he enters. If he does that, then he enters the convention in a very good position to win the nomination. He might still get shot, but the odds of Sirhan Sirhan doing it are far less likely.
 
I agree with the consensus.

RFK takes New Hampshire with a solid victory, McCarthy is unable to gain traction even if his hatred of RFK gets him into the race, LBJ announces he won't run, HHH gets smashed.

With an early RFK entry only LBJ can stop him and if LBJ doesn't run (which is a probability, despite disliking RFK) Humphrey won't get enough establishment support.

Naturally this changes everything. RFK rolls into the convention with every primary a victory, which with Oregon a win also keeps the "Kennedy has never lost an election" thing alive. Mayor Daley will throw his weight around to support RFK. The establishment of the Democratic Party basically gives in at that point.

Without OTL Chicago, or at least with a much smaller convention problem, RFK rolls into the general an odds-on favourite.

Meanwhile in sunny Miami Nixon is watching his support waver, as there were serious doubts IOTL that Nixon could beat RFK. Rockefeller remains unacceptable, but butterflies could easily lead to the almost-happened "what if" of Miami where Reagan and Rockefeller prevent a Nixon first ballot victory. With Nixon blocked Reagan almost certainly makes his OTL 1976 gambit to announce a liberal VP (Mayor Lindsay, probably) and after a few ballots…
 
Nixon is still the nomination's favorite though. He'll implicitly make Kim Campbell's "charisma without substance is a dangerous thing" argument against both Kennedy and Reagan, along with experience. The Northern WWC vote is totally freefloating in this scenario, which puts the Midwest minus Indiana into play.

For VP, Nixon probably takes Agnew because of Wallace as per OTL. Kennedy takes Sanford or maybe Sanders. Tossup all the way to Nov. 5. Doubt there'll be debates unless they pay for it themselves or hold a joint town hall to avoid including Wallace.
 
I still stand by the theory that RFK had little chance in 68.

LBJ *hated* RFK and was obsessed with idea of being stuck between the Kennedy's and seen as a mistake.

He still controlled a lot of party machine in 68, this was prior to reforms and majority of delegates were still controlled by the party boss and caucus type states. So LBJ and southern bosses likely could have blocked nomination.

If RFK gets nod, LBJ would work behind scenes to insure his defeat.

Now RFK in 76 is very possible...
 
You all convinced me that he would win New Hampshire. That means he and his brother have an undefeated record. It also means all the primaries except New Hampshire are landslides. That would be look impressive to Daley and the other party leaders.
 
You all convinced me that he would win New Hampshire. That means he and his brother have an undefeated record. It also means all the primaries except New Hampshire are landslides. That would be look impressive to Daley and the other party leaders.

That's what the limited primaries were for, after all- to prove electability for the handful who controlled 75% of the delegates. Through the primaries RFK shows he can a) hold the NDC together b) has the organization/fundraising to win in November. A campaign largely separate from the national party, like Nixon's then and Obama's later, is certainly helpful considering the DNC was broke.

Also, that frees up Big Labor for downballot races. RFK should have some coattails, maybe Dems pick up 10-15 House seats.
 
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