The POD is that instead of assassinating RFK, Sirhan Sirhan tries to kill President Johnson as he initially planned to do in OTL. However, the attempt is foiled by the Secret Service and Sirhan goes to jail. Kennedy continues his presidential campaign and comes close to the nomination, but he narrowly loses to Vice President Humphrey at the convention.

Humphrey still loses in November (but perhaps does better due to butterflies) and Nixon takes office on January 20, 1969. How does RFK's career pan out during the Nixon years?
 
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Nixon would be terrified of RFK in 1972. He was terrified of running against Ted Kennedy in 1972 of the OTL, because he thought Ted would ride a wave, beat him, and be an heir apparent to the John Kennedy administration. That would likely mean many hours of those tapes devoted to screwing Kennedy before he screwed him, and possibly wiretaps and harassment. Nixon resented the Kennedy family immensely. RFK audited Nixon's mother on her death bed if I remember that correctly. "Bay of Pigs", which conspiracy theorists say was Nixon investigating the assassination, was actually Nixon trying to find proof JFK botched the Bay of Pigs landing to blame him and discredit his legacy because he so resented it. He sought out people in the administration who were Kennedy supporters to get rid of them. He really was spiteful and he is going to go Watergate against Robert Kennedy.
 
Nixon might actually be more careful and micromanage his staff more if going against Bobby. Nixon kind of loosened the leashes on his staff way too much and that's the major cause of the break in. But yeah, Nixon would be terrified of Bobby in '72.
 
Nixon might actually be more careful and micromanage his staff more if going against Bobby. Nixon kind of loosened the leashes on his staff way too much and that's the major cause of the break in. But yeah, Nixon would be terrified of Bobby in '72.

No doubt RFK would use his position in the Senate to critique Nixon's economic and foreign policies. By 1972 Kennedy would overshadow Humphrey as the unofficial leader of the Democratic Party and he'd be the frontrunner for the nomination. I don't think he'd beat Nixon, but he could run a close race and perhaps redeem himself in '76.
 
If Wallace doesn't run as an independent, then that helps Nixon against RFK in the South while hurting him in the North. I think Kennedy would at least hold down the core Democratic vote and get somewhere between 45-47% in the popular vote. Nixon would probably still win due to the strong economy and his foreign policy successes, but you wouldn't see the OTL landslide. Nixon gets 50-53% of the popular vote. But if butterflies see Wallace avoid his assassination attempt and he goes third party, then you'd see an extremely close race a la 2004.
 
Likely sits '72 out and runs and wins in 76.

Looking back, any Democrat would be smart to sit out 1972 since Nixon benefitted from an improving economy and Kissinger's "peace is at hand" press conference. But in 1971 Nixon wasn't popular as the war dragged on and the economy had just endured a mild recession. I think Kennedy probably runs, and has a fair shot at keeping the race close. Given his popularity he might be given a second chance in 1976. If Nixon could pull it off, then so could RFK.
 
Looking back, any Democrat would be smart to sit out 1972 since Nixon benefitted from an improving economy and Kissinger's "peace is at hand" press conference. But in 1971 Nixon wasn't popular as the war dragged on and the economy had just endured a mild recession. I think Kennedy probably runs, and has a fair shot at keeping the race close. Given his popularity he might be given a second chance in 1976. If Nixon could pull it off, then so could RFK.

72 is only close IMHO if Wallace isn't shot and runs third party, as that would cost Nixon the south (I doubt Kennedy would win anything there this is southern strategy Nixon). Barring that, Nixon wins the south and the west while Bobby wins a few states in the rust belt and the north east. Barring Watergate and/or Agnew's scandals coming out before November 72, I think Nixon wins and wins with ease.
 

kernals12

Banned
Most Presidents are reelected. When they aren't, it's because of a poor economy almost always. The economy was strong in 1972. The only way Nixon could lose is if someone mails the "smoking gun" tape to the Washington Post before the election.
 
72 is only close IMHO if Wallace isn't shot and runs third party, as that would cost Nixon the south (I doubt Kennedy would win anything there this is southern strategy Nixon).

This could potentially happen due to butterflies. There's speculation that Nixon made a deal with Wallace to stop an IRS investigation into his brother in exchange for Wallace not going third party. (This was before he was shot). Kennedy was actually quite popular with Appalachian voters and white working class people in the South (although not with segregationists, who hated him). If Nixon views Wallace as a greater threat to Kennedy than to himself, then perhaps butterflies lead to Wallace going third party and under different circumstances he is never shot. And even if there actually was no behind the scenes deal, butterflies resulting from the POD could see Bremer attempting to shoot not Wallace but Nixon - his original target. I doubt Bremer would succeed, but if 1972 is a three way race then that helps RFK against Nixon.
 
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