While I generally agree with you RB, I think you're making RFK more conservative than he actually was. Reading his stuff, this is a man whose first and foremost concern was poverty. Certainly he was not a social democrat, but this is a guy who was by no means a conservative in the more modern sense. I mean he did say that if he was in the same position as Che, he would be a revolutionary too.
That all aside, as a devout Catholic I could see him being sympathetic towards the IRA and Sinn Fein like Ted and many other Irish Catholic Pols (even moderates like Richard Neal, who I think Bobby would be a lot like). Also I doubt he would support Thatcher's policies on detanement without trial and busting the unions. He opposed Hoffa in large part because he wasn't acting in the best interests of the union but rather for himself.
Of course we can't prove alot of this stuff, becuase we're speculating on a reality that didn't happen. But personally I'll take my center-left Bobby from my research.
Let's not make this into a flame war, because I think with all history, alot of it's influenced by the historian. Im a Progressive Texas Democrat, Poli Sci & History Double Major...and even I think Evan Thomas' RFK His Life is fairly even handed. With that book, I was definatly schooled on how intensley Moralistic Bobby was, which is rare coming from a man with a Law background(Bobby lived in a heaven and hell type of world, not the "It Depends" of Carter)
I think Bobby could have won in '76 against Reagan vairy handidly, as Bobby's the only one who can cut WWC voters away from him at the knees. That leaves Reagan with the South(Ex. TX if Bentsen the VP), the midwest and the Pacific Coast could be a toss up. But I think If Bobby sweeps the Rust Belt, than he's fine. Legislation wise, I can't see him pushing through that much different legislation than Carter did as Jimmy had a fairly Moderate approach. Health Care's probably a lock, and we may get a solid commitment on Alternative Energy, but probably little difference.
If we can get the Hostages released in a quickly manner, and can prop up the economy long enough to get inflation undercontrol, then I think it's reasonable to see that Bobby narrowly wins re-election in 1980. On the Republican Side, it's the Bush v. Dole slugfest that we never really got IOTL(Primaries are way more fun when the candidates can't stand each other). As a Conservative Midwesterner, Dole probably reminds too many within the party of a Dull Reaganite, as the party swings back to the moderates.
We are also assuming that Bush's career stays the same ITTL, I mean there could be enough butterflies, that maybe Ford decides to give the Veep spot to him in '74? Or maybe Bobby keeps him in at CIA Director, which even Bush knew at the time was a political dead end(Carter had this weird thing about wanting all of his own people at Key postions). But let's say he does somehow get the nomination in '80...You have the battle of the Passionate vs. the seemingly un-empathic Bush, and I honestly think that although it would be a civil contest, RFK would wipe the floor with him in the debates.
How might Bobby's second term go...I think it could be very rough. the '81-82 Recession was largely a direct result of Volcker's monetary policy, but It was something that had to be ridden out for the prosperity that we saw in the later decades. We definatly wont' see Supply Side ERTA under Bobby, and he might see that we need more of a fiscal stimulus, tax breaks for business or if were using Bill as our case study, we probaly get a stronger version of the EITC and FICA. Still Republican's will make huge gains in the '82 midterms, and praying that the recovery from the Recession isn't felt for another two years.
But when the economy does turn around, I think Vice President Bentsen has a very good shot running for Bobby's third term. If Dole is the nominee, they both have the expeirence to make good Presidents but my god would that be a boring General Election. All Bentsen has to do is to forge an electoral map simmilar to Carter's in '76 and he's golden; relying on the South as his base rather than WWC voters in the Rust Belt. Assuming that something big like Iran-Contra comes out, and maybe a lackluster solution to the S&L Crisis could make Bentsen a One Term President. As for candidates who could beat him in an election(I get so tired of seeing the same candidates over and over) I like New Jersey Governor Tom Kean or Big Jim Thompson of Illinois.
But going back to the POD, what kinda of Senate Career might Bobby have if he serves till '77. Could he get on the Judiciary, and be one of the main players grilling the Nixon cabinet about their involvement in the watergate scandal? Can He get Nixon impeached before he's resigned? How much of an opposition leader would he be to Nixon/Ford's Domestic Policy?