RFK A New Democrat?

I'm of the mind that Kennedy would have appealed more to both the white working class and the new left than Humphrey did. If I had to predict an electoral result, it would be something along these lines:

Robert F. Kennedy/Terry Sanford (D): 43% of the PV, 271 EVs
Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew (R): 42% of the PV, 211 EVs
George Wallace/Curtis LeMay (AI): 15% of the PV, 56 EVs

The race comes down to three states: California, Illinois, and Ohio. I think Kennedy wins all three. California because of his superior support among Latinos and African-Americans, as well as the Democratic Party's organization in that state (Jesse Unruh) being more strongly aligned with him than with HHH. Illinois because Kennedy wins over more ethnic Catholics in Cook County, and Ohio because he is better with white working class voters than Humphrey.

Truman's three saving states in 1948 would be what saves RFK in 1968, but I'm not convinced that he can stand up to the Nixon machine. Towards the end, Nixon got complacent campaigning against Humphrey because he had such a wide lead. Nixon would throw everything plus the kitchen sink at a Kennedy, plus more. He wouldn't let his guard up for a minute.

Unruh did jack-all to help HHH in 1968, but his backing of RFK isn't all a rose story:
Willie Brown: A Biography said:
Contrary to post-assassination myths, the Kennedy campaign in California was chaotic and disorganized. Unruh and the California politicians clashed with each other and with the East Coast consultants Kennedy sent to the state to straighten things out. Unruh tried to manage every detail, and details began to escape him. Kennedy almost did not get on the California ballot because lawyers dispatched by Unruh to the secretary of state's office barely made it before closing. Meanwhile, the Kennedy staff treated the Californians brusquely, and tensions grew. Well-meaning volunteers were haughtily turned away from the campaign organization. Finally, Kennedy sent campaign aide Steve Smith to California, and he set up an office next to Unruh's. Everything in the campaign from then on had to go through both Unruh and Smith for approval.
I do think that the California race would be a closer one, but no cigar. Nixon has people in his state, too.

Finally, it is true that Kennedy did better than Humphrey among the white working class in 1968. McGovern also did better than Humphrey among this "Wallace crowd" in 1972, most notably in Wisconsin. I expect Nixon to do his best to pry this group from Kennedy, like he did from McGovern IOTL. And I think this would be enough to defeat RFK. This group would later be known as Reagan Democrats for a reason.

If you are going to get an RFK presidency, though, that map is the most plausible pathway I see.
 
What would the vote tally be for 1972 then? It all depends on the Republican nominee, and I think Reagan might decide to wait for 1976.
 
Another bump. Let's look at 1976-onward. Would Bill Clinton and people like the New Democrats have a different philosophy altogether, since the issues of welfare and UHC will probably be solved? Would RFK be remembered as a progressive, or something else entirely? Do the traditional liberals decline, as they do IOTL? And what of the effects on our cities and our entertainment (Music, TV, Movies, Video Games)? More people living there in the 70s, less sprawl, more mass transit investments? Several factors, directly and indirectly affected by RFK's survival and presidency, will play a role in shaping our future, affecting our lives and the lives of others, in America and the rest of the world.

P.S. Still wondering who might be a good Republican nominee for 1972. I really don't think Reagan will run.
 
Last edited:
Another bump. Let's look at 1976-onward. Would Bill Clinton and people like the New Democrats have a different philosophy altogether, since the issues of welfare and UHC will probably be solved? Would RFK be remembered as a progressive, or something else entirely? Do the traditional liberals decline, as they do IOTL? And what of the effects on our cities and our entertainment (Music, TV, Movies, Video Games)? More people living there in the 70s, less sprawl, more mass transit investments? Several factors, directly and indirectly affected by RFK's survival and presidency, will play a role in shaping our future, affecting our lives and the lives of others, in America and the rest of the world.

P.S. Still wondering who might be a good Republican nominee for 1972. I really don't think Reagan will run.

You wouldn't have "New" Democrats as there wouldn't have to be the ideological counter-revolution in response to the major changes of the 1970s. As for party organization and reform, RFK will probably push for much of what the McGovern-Fraser Commission ended up proposing. But he will also understand the need to keep party bosses happy, so you'll see super delegates (or a similar concept) earlier. The ideological development of the party will most likely follow a course not too different to what actually happened, but with a very different flavoring (if that makes any sense). You'll still see the emergence of the New Left, especially in the Northeast and West Coast. But with Kennedy in the White House, it won't be as vitriolic and obstructionist as it was with Nixon. In essence, Bobby will be a transition figure from the New Deal Coalition to the New Democratic Coalition (different from today's Democrats). The South will still go Republican, and probably faster without Jimmy Carter on the top of the Democratic ticket. But there won't be as great an exodus of the White Working Class as there was in OTL. They will be joined by minorities, women, and young people. The Republicans will still coalesce around the three branches of conservatism (social, economic, and foreign policy), but they won't receive the same levels of support from the WWC.

Culturally, the biggest changes would be the absence of Nixon. He played a major role as a bad guy for the counterculture, pop music, and comedy. So those things change. You might also get a faster tech revolution if Kennedy maintains higher levels of funding for R&D. But that might not be the case if he has to fund his anti-poverty programs and can't get equal levels of spending cuts in the military or tax increases.

As for 1972, Reagan would be the favorite if he ran. Rockefeller's pretty washed up after two disappointing tries at the nomination. If Reagan sits out you have a "seven dwarves" situation where there really isn't a big name who could beat Bobby. Either way, if the economy is in good shape and the war in Vietnam is over, Kennedy has got to be the favorite for reelection.
 
As for 1972, Reagan would be the favorite if he ran. Rockefeller's pretty washed up after two disappointing tries at the nomination. If Reagan sits out you have a "seven dwarves" situation where there really isn't a big name who could beat Bobby. Either way, if the economy is in good shape and the war in Vietnam is over, Kennedy has got to be the favorite for reelection.

Reagan might not run, he might not risk running against a popular incumbent. If he doesn't run, what would your be Republican nominee? Dominick, like in RogueBeaver's The Impossible Dream? Someone else. Also, what would your ideal list of legislation passed in an RFK Presidency be like?
 
Well, I study the history of public policy, I know the 1960s and 1970s rather well and can certainly provide a list of good secondary sources, and I did write a paper a long time ago on RFK and may be able to dig up some primary sources that I used if I still have them somewhere.

Have you dug out that paper yet Steven? And the sources?
 
Top