RFK '68 Landslide?

[Deleted member 145219]

Or more likely runs and loses in 1972.

I really question whether RFK would run in 1972 after losing the nomination in 1968. Now if he didn't run in 1968, I could see him going for it in 1972. And the prospect of Nixon imploding in 1972 can't be disregarded.

 

[Deleted member 145219]

Polls showed RFK would have done worse against Nixon than Humphrey. Nlr do I think RFK would win the nomination.

No Democrat is winning in a landslide in 1968.

I wouldn't read too much into those hypothetical polls. A lot happened in the five months after RFK's death and there's no way to know for sure how things would have played out with him alive.

 

[odieluck]

I wouldn't read too much into those hypothetical polls. A lot happened in the five months after RFK's death and there's no way to know for sure how things would have played out with him alive.

I mean at least the well polished aspect should be helping Bobby out here a little, right? He’s more handsome, more charismatic, and a better speaker than either Nixon or Humphrey, and that matters a lot in American politics. Jumping in early with a consistent message of steady withdrawal from Vietnam with a peace deal, and being tough on crime and the causes of crime and some proto-Obama hopey changey stuff (which Humphrey couldn’t do as much since he was tied to Johnson) and that’s not a bad package for people I don’t think. There’s got to be some truth to all that, right?

 

[Mynock]

I really question whether RFK would run in 1972 after losing the nomination in 1968.

He would run in 1972 for the same reason Muskie, McGovern and indeed McCarthy ran in 1972. With the benefit of hindsight 1972 is an election to sit out for a prominent Democrat, but in 1971 that isn't what it looks like.

Now if he didn't run in 1968, I could see him going for it in 1972.

Why would him running in 1968 mean he wouldn't run in 1972. Candidates do run two cycles in a row. Reagan comes to mind instantly, as well as Tom Dewey, Adlai Stevenson, John Edwards, Henry Jackson, George Wallace, Gary Hart, Jesse Jackson and the list goes on. You can bet if Gore won 2000, McCain would run in 2004. Probably my biggest pet peeve for RFK TLs is sidestepping 1972, when really you need a pretty good reason for him to stay out.

And the prospect of Nixon imploding in 1972 can't be disregarded.

Possible, especially if he is up against a Kennedy.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Okay so since a fight to the death between Johnson and Kennedy seems the most plausible, does Kennedy win all the primaries and Johnson get most of the delegates in states without primaries? Are there any primaries that LBJ could actually win or would Kennedy snowball after New Hampshire?

Kennedy would probably win all those he and McCarthy split, but Johnson, probably through surrogates and favorite sons would hold onto primary states like Ohio and Florida. Johnson, being the incumbent President and all, likely heads to Chicago with a delegate lead, maybe enough of one to give him the first ballot win if RFK can't get enough of the bosses on his side.

I’m very curious about the convention.
Assuming they both have a convention showdown:
What’s the worst it can go in terms of ugliness?
What’s the best it can go?
What’s the most likely way it would go?

Worst? The convention fails to select a nominee for multiple ballots, the confrontations between the Chicago police and the anti-war protestors grow more violent up to and including the staff of anti-war candidates, and it drags on with violence on the convention floor until the Party is figuratively (and maybe literally) burned to the ground and whoever the nominee is, Kennedy, Johnson, a compromise, loses in a landslide in November,

Best Case? Daley is convinced (somehow) to keep things restrained, Kennedy manages to talk the protesters down, you get a calm-ish convention that selects either Kennedy or a broadly amendable compromise pro-peace candidate that enters the general without Chicago as an anchor around their neck.

Most Likely? Probably closer to worst then best, a contest between LBJ and RFK at Chicago, two men whose personal vendettas are far longer then their political ones, is an intra-party bloodbath waiting to happen. LBJ's presence is only going to embolden the protestors, the fact that he's the President is going to further tighten up security measures, and couple it with the willingess and the desire of many police officers to pick a fight, and what you get is a pressure cooker waiting to pop.

 

[odieluck]

Kennedy would probably win all those he and McCarthy split, but Johnson, probably through surrogates and favorite sons would hold onto primary states like Ohio and Florida. Johnson, being the incumbent President and all, likely heads to Chicago with a delegate lead, maybe enough of one to give him the first ballot win if RFK can't get enough of the bosses on his side.

Worst? The convention fails to select a nominee for multiple ballots, the confrontations between the Chicago police and the anti-war protestors grow more violent up to and including the staff of anti-war candidates, and it drags on with violence on the convention floor until the Party is figuratively (and maybe literally) burned to the ground and whoever the nominee is, Kennedy, Johnson, a compromise, loses in a landslide in November,

Best Case? Daley is convinced (somehow) to keep things restrained, Kennedy manages to talk the protesters down, you get a calm-ish convention that selects either Kennedy or a broadly amendable compromise pro-peace candidate that enters the general without Chicago as an anchor around their neck.

Most Likely? Probably closer to worst then best, a contest between LBJ and RFK at Chicago, two men whose personal vendettas are far longer then their political ones, is an intra-party bloodbath waiting to happen. LBJ's presence is only going to embolden the protestors, the fact that he's the President is going to further tighten up security measures, and couple it with the willingess and the desire of many police officers to pick a fight, and what you get is a pressure cooker waiting to pop.

Hmm… this seems like a good point for LBJ to have a well timed rage induced heart attack just bad enough for him to have to bow out a week before the convention, but not bad enough for him to have to be 25th-ed. Just enough to make it clear to himself and to Lady Bird that he can’t serve a second term (after all OTL he died just after Nixon’s second inauguration). Then Humphrey might jump in but everyone will have consolidated behind Kennedy at this point. If LBJ isn’t there then there’ll be less tension coming from the protestors, and less security. Then it’s a big hippie love fest and they all sing and dance.
Right? Right…? No? Darn it.

But in all seriousness could LBJ’s health forcing him to get out at the right time be a way to get around this? I don’t know how Daley could be convinced, he seems like a stubborn old “I’ll run this place the way I want and we’re keeping those hippies in line” sorta guy, but there must be some believable storyline where he can.