[Revolutionary France AH] - Napoleon Bonaparte and Lazare Hoche swap commands?

See above. Napoleon Bonaparte is given command of the Expedition d'Irelande in 1796. Meanwhile Lazare Hoche is given command of the Army of Italy. As part of this supposition, suppose the Expedition is able to land safely on Irish soil and isn't forced back by poor weather.

Can Napoleon actually pull off the liberation of Ireland despite the superiority of the British at sea and the dubious quality of the Irish rebels? Could Lazare Hoche replicate or exceed the success that Napoleon had managed? How would failure or success here impact Napoleon's IRL path of becoming emperor? Would Ireland be able to stay independent in the long term?
 
See above. Napoleon Bonaparte is given command of the Expedition d'Irelande in 1796. Meanwhile Lazare Hoche is given command of the Army of Italy. As part of this supposition, suppose the Expedition is able to land safely on Irish soil and isn't forced back by poor weather.

Can Napoleon actually pull off the liberation of Ireland despite the superiority of the British at sea and the dubious quality of the Irish rebels? Could Lazare Hoche replicate or exceed the success that Napoleon had managed? How would failure or success here impact Napoleon's IRL path of becoming emperor? Would Ireland be able to stay independent in the long term?

So what you're saying is that Napoleon's got weather control powers? Something something easy joke about fog and Austerlitz.

In all seriousness, if we hand-wave a way for the Irish Expedition to land, Napoleon can probably seize control of the island with the resources at hand. The French fleet, however, probably can't keep the Royal Navy at bay and you end up with a situation reminiscent of what happened OTL in Egypt with the French expeditionary force accomplishing its objectives on land but isolated by the British at sea. Except Britain's right next door and will a raise a substantial army for the express purpose of ejecting the French. So it would not be unreasonable to expect things to go badly once the French fleet is run off. Then again, Napoleon's the best example of the Great Man theory of history for a reason, so anything might happen once the relief/reconquest army shows up.

If the Irish Expedition ends as the OTL Egyptian foray did -- with an agreed evacuation of the French expeditionary force -- you've probably butterflied away the Emperor of the French, as Napoleon doesn't gain the laurels of being the peacemaker of Campo Formio and lay the groundwork for the First Consulate. Hoche-in-Italy is probably worthy of a TL unto itself, as that basically butterflies 80% of the Napoleonic Wars as we know them regardless of whether the Army of Italy wins or loses.
 
So what you're saying is that Napoleon's got weather control powers? Something something easy joke about fog and Austerlitz.
Heh. Nah, just saying they actually land so he gets to do something rather than get sent back after months of not years of fucking around on the French coast ala Hoche.

In all seriousness, if we hand-wave a way for the Irish Expedition to land, Napoleon can probably seize control of the island with the resources at hand. The French fleet, however, probably can't keep the Royal Navy at bay and you end up with a situation reminiscent of what happened OTL in Egypt with the French expeditionary force accomplishing its objectives on land but isolated by the British at sea. Except Britain's right next door and will a raise a substantial army for the express purpose of ejecting the French. So it would not be unreasonable to expect things to go badly once the French fleet is run off. Then again, Napoleon's the best example of the Great Man theory of history for a reason, so anything might happen once the relief/reconquest army shows up. If the Irish Expedition ends as the OTL Egyptian foray did -- with an agreed evacuation of the French expeditionary force -- you've probably butterflied away the Emperor of the French, as Napoleon doesn't gain the laurels of being the peacemaker of Campo Formio and lay the groundwork for the First Consulate.

See, I'm kind of curious about this. The Irish would have been far more amenable to Napoleon and his military leadership in my opinion, though that might have soured quickly if he needed to levy taxes to pay his regulars. But he's also a dagger right at the side of Britain and probably one of the best commanders who could defend Ireland from British landings. So I'm curious if he could: (1) defend the island successfully and only be forced out by negotiation (2) guarantee Ireland's independence somehow so his departure isn't a stab-in-the-back myth (3) leverage the Ireland expedition into a follow up attack on Britain itself somehow, which seems impossible. In addition, the presence of a heavy French force in Ireland seems like something that would tie up British attention and forces (both land and sea), which I'm curious as to if it might have effects elsewhere (like in say, India). I mean, I don't expect a Bonaparte success at all in this campaign but I am curious how much a French force actually landing would change the course of Irish independence.

Hoche-in-Italy is probably worthy of a TL unto itself, as that basically butterflies 80% of the Napoleonic Wars as we know them regardless of whether the Army of Italy wins or loses.

Feel free to go for it, I'm more here about the Irish independence bit than swapping Bonaparte and Hoche. Given Hoche died 9 months after the whole Ireland affair I don't know how that might go though in a situation where he lives.
 
Even if Napoleon loses, could he set things up in such a way that an insurgency continues after his defeat? It's not like there's any shortage of nationalist or anti-British sentiment in Ireland, and even if he's utterly crushed, there will still be a remnant of his army and the Irish rebels that's well-equipped and trained. And I think he's good enough at what he does to not be utterly crushed even in the event that he does lose.
 
I would like to see a timeline where Napoleon decides to "go native" and limits himself to being ruler Ireland and fiercely defending it from the British. Even to the point stabbing France itself in the back should he need to align as a neutral in any Revolutionary France vs. British wars. Might he get Ireland at a seat in the table and gain a French colony or two? Irish Guadeloupe or Martinique, Irish Louisiana? The British give Ireland the Channel Islands or Minorca to get Ireland to be more than just neutral, be actually pro-British, free trade open door, and blockade France along with declare war and supply ships and men. Napoleon leads an Irish contingent that along with British regulars and Austrian and Prussian forces reinstate the French Bourbons. Napoleon's intelligence and strategic ability impresses the Duke of Wellington and others. He becomes a minor man of action that creates a modern state in Ireland that is an envy of the world in using the metric system and industrializes amazingly fast. Alternatehistory.com writes "what ifs" regarding if Napoleon (or would be O'Nappy?") had stayed in the French army.
 
There's an alternative military history book entitled The Napoleon Options where Hoche succeeds in freeing Ireland from British rule even though he had to land at Berehaven, at the end of the Bearra (sic) peninsula. Despite this being probably one of the worst places in Ireland for a landing, in terms of distance from major objectives with poor or non-existent roads, he was able to move inland, defeat British resistance and gather support from Irish volunteers. Eventually Ireland is lost to British control and (various other PODs) so is British undisputed control of the seas, forcing it to seek peace and recognize both the French and Irish Republics.

The essay ends with a lasting peace signed in 1797 or 1798. Bonaparte tries a coup against the Directorate but this is suppressed, implicitly by Hoche.

So Napoleon being in charge of the Irish expedition may well generate a similar loss of Ireland, though whether this forces the British to make peace is less certain. The POD (death of Jarvis in December 1796) that led to Cape St. Vincent being an indecisive battle may not be replicated and so it's probable that Napoleon will be cut off from reinforcements, unlike the essay TL. And even if there is a peace recognizing Ireland as independent, that doesn't meant that Napoleon won't provoke further wars later, with Britain using that excuse to attempt to reoccupy Ireland.
 
Interesting. Link to the book?

And even if there is a peace recognizing Ireland as independent, that doesn't meant that Napoleon won't provoke further wars later, with Britain using that excuse to attempt to reoccupy Ireland.
Mhm. I would fully expect a French-liberated Ireland to only last so long as France could prop it up, be it Napoleon or Hoche as liberator. In a world Napoleon continues on to become Emperor Ireland might only last as long as the Seventh Coalition, if that. If Ireland does last longer or at all, then it would need other allies. America seems an easy one based on shared republican and anti-British traits, but an Irish-alignment with France could be doom either way.

As a sidenote, from what I've been able to research, the United Irishmen were estimated before the invasion to have as many as 40,000 potential fighters at a conservative estimate, while the Irish Yeomanry (A British government organized militia) had 18,000 while Protestant leaders in Ulster had another 5,000 to offer. This was in 1798, and was part of the initial spread of "Orangeism" across the Protestant community in Ireland. At it's largest in 1803 the Yeomanry counted as many as 80,000 Protestants (and Catholics) under arms.
 
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Interesting. Link to the book?

Mhm. I would fully expect a French-liberated Ireland to only last so long as France could prop it up, be it Napoleon or Hoche as liberator. In a world Napoleon continues on to become Emperor Ireland might only last as long as the Seventh Coalition, if that. If Ireland does last longer or at all, then it would need other allies. America seems an easy one based on shared republican and anti-British traits, but an Irish-alignment with France could be doom either way.

As a sidenote, from what I've been able to research, the United Irishmen were estimated before the invasion to have as many as 40,000 potential fighters at a conservative estimate, while the Irish Yeomanry (A British government organized militia) had 18,000 while Protestant leaders in Ulster had another 5,000 to offer. This was in 1798, and was part of the initial spread of "Orangeism" across the Protestant community in Ireland. At it's largest in 1803 the Yeomanry counted as many as 80,000 Protestants (and Catholics) under arms.
The Napoleon Options (editor Jonathon North) (my version) can be obtained from Amazon. There's also a newer edition, same name, I don't know if it differs.

Yes, there seems the potential for massive resistance to the Irish Republic, amounting to a civil war. It does depend on to what extent a secular Republic could calm Presbyterian fears and whether the ideals of the FrenchRevolution can appeal to the Irish peasantry and bourgeoise.
 
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