Revival of Mongolia as a military power

[Arkenfolm]

Sadly, the Dzunghar genocide by the Qing crushed the last chance of a powerful Mongolia.

On a population of one million people? With so many on subsistence agriculture?

No.

If AK-47s flowed freely as they do as in parts in the Middle East, they probably could. But those aren't soldiers, they're tribal levies most concerned about defending their own land or raiding other tribes.

 

[Cryptic]

pop 1.7 million per 1980 IISS
maybe 40k regular army with 100k militia ?

Though I think 100K militia could be raised, Mongolian terrain is not militia friendly.

There are very few, if any natural choke points, built up areas, forests or mountains where militia can leverage partial training with easily defensible terrain. As a result, unless the militia can also be motorized, it is not going to do any good. Additional bad news is that China was motorizing an increasingly large number of units and slowly but steadily developing fully mechanized units.

 

[CV12Hornet]

Though I think 100K militia could be raised, Mongolian terrain is not militia friendly.

There are very few, if any natural choke points, built up areas, forests or mountains where militia can leverage partial training with easily defensible terrain. As a result, unless the militia can also be motorized, it is not going to do any good. Additional bad news is that China was motorizing an increasingly large number of units and slowly but steadily developing fully mechanized units.

Most likely the militia would be horse-mounted, given how many of them would be nomadic herdsmen not that far removed from their Mongol ancestors.

 

[Count of Crisco]

I have toyed with a scenario with a fractured China collapsing in the 1910s into a several large warring states. In such a situation I then have the USSR support a Mongolian SSR as a buffer between themselves and the chaos of China. Later installing further communist states in Manchuria and other regions after WWII.

In such a situation Mongolia could hold onto significant territory, namely inner Mongolia. And if it is stable enough even get a boost in population sufficient enough to support a large economy and military

Such a state would however likely be heavily beholden to the USSR to build up it's infrastructure and heavy industry.

 

[Bob in Pittsburgh]

No matter how you cut it the population, the industrial base, the terrain; there was no way Mongolia could be a military power in the 20th century.

 

[Glory2Cabinda]

How its barely populated and has next to no industry?

 

[Arkenfolm]

There are very few, if any natural choke points, built up areas, forests or mountains where militia can leverage partial training with easily defensible terrain. As a result, unless the militia can also be motorized, it is not going to do any good. Additional bad news is that China was motorizing an increasingly large number of units and slowly but steadily developing fully mechanized units.

There are actually a decent amount of mountains and valleys in Mongolia where a defense could be conducted, particularly in the west of the country.

How its barely populated and has next to no industry?

It's among the least densely populated countries in the world, has barely 3 million people, and most people are pastoralists or agriculturalists. Nowadays the economy is shifting toward mining where it will follow a trajectory similar to countries like Bolivia that rely heavily on that industry. However, in the recent past, most of its people lived very similarly to how they had for centuries.

 

[Blue cat]

Good point
How many then at the most you think ?

pop 1.7 million per 1980 IISS
maybe 40k regular army with 100k militia ?

In your view what would be the motivation for the population to go along with this ? While I can see another nation potentially providing the funds and perhaps equipment it seems a challenge to me for another nation to actually motivate the population to want to do this if they didn't already have a desire to do so ?

 

[fasquardon]

Can the soviets revive Mongolia as a military power to pose a threat to Chinese on their northern border after the sino Soviet split of 1960s?

No.

Mongolia just doesn't have the people.

For the Mongols to be a serious threat to China you'd have to go back to the 18th Century and give ALL the luck to the Dzungars.

fasquardon

 

[Monk78]

In your view what would be the motivation for the population to go along with this ? While I can see another nation potentially providing the funds and perhaps equipment it seems a challenge to me for another nation to actually motivate the population to want to do this if they didn't already have a desire to do so ?

misplaced nationalism
essentially a fascist like desire to revive the glories of the old mongolian empire this time with the approval of their slavic overlords

 

[Monk78]

Most likely the militia would be horse-mounted, given how many of them would be nomadic herdsmen not that far removed from their Mongol ancestors.

combination of mechanized units core perhaps 3 motorized divisions and rest is militia ?

 

[CV12Hornet]

combination of mechanized units core perhaps 3 motorized divisions and rest is militia ?

That's smaller than what the Mongolian People's Army actually had in the 1980s.

 

[Emperor Norton I]

Mongolia becoming a modern military power is basically like Montana becoming militarized.

 

[Monk78]

Montana leads states in right wing extremist groups

POCATELLO Montana has the most right wing extremist groups in the country, with Idaho second, estimates a sociologist who has studied the so called hate groups.

www.bozemandailychronicle.com

 

[Monk78]

That's smaller than what the Mongolian People's Army actually had in the 1980s.

What numbers do you have for let’s say 83 or 84

I have like just 25k in army

 

[CV12Hornet]

What numbers do you have for let’s say 83 or 84

I have like just 25k in army

The source I had said four motorized divisions; most likely these are hollow units awaiting the 150,000 or so reservists they had.

 

[Sapa Inka Wiraqucha]

Population too low, and most of it lives a nomadic lifestyle (so the infrastructure is not there).
Everyone here seems to acknowledge that in some way, but they try to fix this by making Mongolia someone else's puppet and have it be made powerful that way.
Personally, I think that's just a cop-out. Mongolia's basically just the middle of bumfuck nowhere by now; Asian flyover country, if you will.

 

[David T]

Can the soviets revive Mongolia as a military power to pose a threat to Chinese on their northern border after the sino Soviet split of 1960s?

Choibalsan wanted to have Mongolia declare war on Germany, but Stalin told him that Mongolian forces were not numerous enough to make a difference. https://books.google.com/books?id=FWmmBgAAQBAJ&pg=PA143 I think that gives you some idea of Soviet perceptions of Mongolia's military strength.

Not that Mongolia didn't have any military role: It declared war on Japan on August 9, 1945--the last declaration of war in World War II. In the few remaining days of war, it helped to liberate Inner Mongolia. (Choibalsan apparently hoped that Stalin would let him unify Outer and Inner Mongolia, but Stlain was not going to do something that would alienate the Chinese--both Nationalist and Communist--that way.) And of course years earlier it had fought alongside the Red Army at Khalkhin Gol. But a major military power (as opposed to a marginally useful satellite army)? No. It just wasn't populous or economicaly advanced enough for that.

 

[Lemonfish]

The only way I could think of is Ungern-Sternberg survived and he somehow conquer outer Mongolia and Eastern Siberia, than his new "Khanate" miraculously survived to modern day. Even all of these ASB things happen, it still would be a lot weaker than TTL Russia and China.