As much as I do know about Germany, Russia, and the period between 1914 to 1991, it's still quite basic, and as such this feels to me like a situation where more than one person writing the timeline would be better. It would help me learn more as well.
If you want I'd be happy to help out with any ideas you need to bounce around.
hlovell said:
First of all, I'm going to use the start of WWI as a POD. Would it be better if Germany kept itself from invading Belgium and Britain stayed out of the war, or if the POD had Britain still enter the war on Belgium's behalf, but have the war end in a white peace?
Britain needs to enter the war to create the necessary conditions for the OTL attempted revolution in Germany. A major aggravating factor was the lack of food supplies thanks to the British blockade. If there's no blockade then Germany won't have problems feeding herself. Remember the French and Russian Revolutions both started as bread riots; food can be a very powerful thing in a revolutionary situation.
One possibility for a PoD and flow of events is if, care of butterflies and small lucky breaks, the Germans just win the
First Battle of the Marne by a hair. They manage to hold the field and repel the Franco-British counter-attack but when the dust settles are too worn out, low on supplies, and otherwise unfit to pursue the retreating Allied forces. In the chaos following the confrontation the Germans do better in the race to the sea pushing the front lines just short of Calais. Paris holds but it now stands on the front line, more of France is under German occupation, and the Allied line is in a much more precarious position.
From there the situation in the West devolves into a bloody stalemate while in the East it goes more or less as OTL. The Entente, out of desperation, buys Italy's participation with promises of the return of all Italian-claimed land in Austria-Hungary. Owing to their poorer position, more difficult supply situation, and other factors the Allies are eventually beaten by the Germans when their final offensive in the wake of the Russian Revolution in 1917 manages to seize Paris but at great cost. German civilians back home, starving, tired of military dictatorship, and soldiers who have given all they've got for no real gain start going on strike and otherwise airing their grievances loudly and publicly. The Kaiser, fearing revolution at home, agrees to a relatively soft peace which includes the return of all lost colonies overseas so he can get the army home in time.
This proves to be a fatal mistake when returning soldiers, ordered to fire on their friends, family, neighbors, and in some cases former comrades in arms, instead mutiny and turn on their masters. Led by the Spartacists and Rosa Luxemburg Germany falls to revolution while a defeated, exhausted Italy follows suit shortly after. France and Russia just barely hang on by a thread before later going fascist while Britain retreats into splendid isolation and watches Europe burn for a couple of decades.
hlovell said:
Reason why I ask is because I want to see what things would be like if the German Socialist Union inherited the African and Pacific colonies from the Kaiser, including Tsingtao and Samoa, which would all later gain independence in the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s.
If they're keeping them it would likely be under some kind of structure that claims the locals are equal members of the socialist state or something along those lines. Otherwise ideologically keeping colonies runs directly afoul of some pretty basic tenets of socialist ideology.
hlovell said:
Second, if Rosa Luxemburg/Kurt Eisner is Lenin, who would be Stalin? I briefly thought about Ernst Thälmann, but I'd like other's opinions.
I would highly suggest you read
Wir Sind Spartakus for a much better explanation of the situation. Short version: there won't be a Stalin analogue in Germany. The political culture, kind of system they were envisioning, and internal situation wouldn't have allowed for it especially if Rosa Luxemburg is the one leading the revolution. The
Left/Council Communism which was favored by the Germans at the time is a very different beast from Leninist/Stalinist State Communism and is, in many key ways, very democratic in some ways moreso than the modern American system is. There won't be a Stalin clone running around because dictatorship would be extremely unlikely to develop.
Odds are also if Italy is inspired by to launch a similar revolution (not hard, they almost did OTL in the
Bienno Rosa) it would unfold along similar lines.
hlovell said:
Also, how do you think the aftermath of WWI and the interbellum period go in this timeline? What German analogues do you think would work for Russia, and what Russian analogues for Germany?
When Spain blows up (that was a ticking time bomb waiting to happen) in a rather interesting reversal of roles from OTL the Germans and the Italians will be sending supplies and volunteers to assist the revolutionaries in the CNT against the Spanish Army which could lead to a Red Spain. That could be the moment that pushes the Puchoviks and the French into seriously preparing for war against the Reds. Heck maybe the fall of Spain to Communism c/o German and Italian support could be the one last push that leads to a fascist takeover in France.
hlovell said:
I think I've established Drakov and the Puchoviks as coming to power in 1933 just as Hitler did in OTL.
Doable assuming the war happens more or less as OTL in terms of time frame.
One possibility to consider would be Stalin ending up in the Puchoviks secret police apparatus. He was enough of a survivor and slimeball that I could see him joining up with the Okhrona when things start getting hairy for the Bolsheviks.
hlovell said:
As for the start of WWII in this timeline, I'm uncertain on how I should go about it. Should I make it a joint German-Russian invasion of Poland like OTL, or what could I do?
First you need to figure out who is fighting, what causes it, and what their objectives are. If you have the very likely possibility of Germany and Russia in a mutually antagonistic relationship in the years leading up to the war that's going to lead to a very different beginning than OTL. No matter what geography dictates the first blows will be struck in Poland.
hlovell said:
Also, how would the German Socialist Union incorporate the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria-Hungary, Denmark, and other countries into its realm?
Successful socialist revolutions in most cases would work. Belgium could be involuntarily incorporated as fallout from the German Revolution/Civil War seeing as most of the country was occupied by the Germans for the duration of the war. Otherwise Socialist Germany is going to be busy rebuilding from the damage of war and revolution, inciting further revolutions where possible, and trying not to incite any overt response from the rest of Europe so overt conquest is almost definitely right out.
maybe Drakov could be a really strong verison of a Shogun while reducing the Tsar to a mere figurehead.
Which does have precedent in militarist Japan and Fascist Italy where technically the King did have final say but Mussolini mostly ran the show. Considering the fascist movement's love affair with all things traditional, reactionary, and otherwise ultraconservative keeping the Tsar in place or even better restoring the Tsar (whether that restoration is bullshit or genuine is up to you) would gel perfectly especially when they're going for extremist Orthodox Christianity which was always one of the key pillars of support for the Tsar's rule.