What if the Teutonic Knights had won decisively against Alexander Nevsky during their battles? Could the Teutonic Order keep Pskov, and the parts of Karelia they had captured, and if so would they go for more?
If the Teutons won, expect a lot of Germanization of the east and the destruction of Orthodox Russian culture. Best case scenario: Kievan Rus' partitioned between the Teutonic Order and the Golden Horde, with Kiev going to the latter, and Lithuania going to the former.
The thing I was thing is, Novogorod would just be one in a series of Russian principalities to conquer. Are you saying the death of Novogorod would have a dominoe effect?