alternatehistory.com

This timeline was written by a friend, as part of an online nation simulation game we're about to run. Please critique this for plausibility.

January, 1869: The Ezo Republic is proclaimed in Hakodate by Enomoto Takeaki, with remnants of the former Shogunal fleet and disaffected samurai and shogunate loyalists. Along with most of the navy, the rebellious shogunal supporters also bring with them vast sums of the former shogunate’s wealth. The rebellion enjoys the support of France, represented by Jules Brunet.

February, 1869: The Ironclad Ship USS Stonewall is sent to Sendai as per a previous agreement of purchase by the Imperial government, and the US flag is raised over the vessel, as the US government seeks to maintain neutrality in the Boshin conflict. Imperial forces have yet to pay the full price of the ship, but they protest nonetheless, and demand immediate transfer of the ship. American naval leaders waffle, and due to the diplomatic maneuvering of Jules Brunet, France purchases the USS Stonewall from America, removing American responsibility for the ship. The ship was originally constructed by France, who in turn sells the the ship to the Franco-Japanese forces gathering in Hakodate, bolstering the Ezo Republic’s naval forces. The fact that this deal included some rather exorbitant loans (with rather high interest rates) is of little concern to the desperate Republican government.

April, 1869: Imperial forces consolidate control over the mainland, and prepare their naval forces for the invasion of Ezo, the last holdout of Shogunate forces. Shogunate forces in Northern Honshu flee to Ezo.

May, 1869: A more aggressive shogunate navy is sent to pressure imperial forces near Sendai. The battle of Miyako Bay takes place near Sendai, and ends with Imperial forces suffering some losses but driving the Shogunate’s forces from threatening the mainland.

The Imperial forces, emboldened by their victory, move towards Hakodate to end the rebellion once and for all. Under the combined command of Enomoto Takeaki and Jules Brunet, the Franco-Japanese fleet decisively defeats the Imperial navy, crushing any hope for the landing of ground forces in the immediate future. The anniversary of the battle, May 19, 1869, is celebrated as a national holiday.

June, 1869: Having proven their viability, the French and British increase their support of the Ezo Republic, and officially recognize the government as the legitimate government of Japan. The Meiji government is incensed, but with its navy crippled and few foreign nations willing to sell any naval armaments, the imperial government continues to pursue a desperate military solution.

September, 1869: A final attempt is made to invade the Ezo Republic by Imperial forces. With France now entirely behind the small republic, and European powers increasingly angry with anti-foreigner incidents and resentment in Meiji controlled territory, the Imperial forces are horrendously outmatched.

Imperial forces attempt to force a landing, enjoying vast superiority on the ground, but Franco-Ezo naval forces manage to impede the landing to such a degree that only a small contingent of Imperial forces reach land. Without supplies, and with Ezo having had months to fortify and receive generous French foreign aid, Imperial forces are gradually whittled down to surrender.

Purely apocryphally, witnesses at the time describe a storm that hampered the deployment of Meiji ground forces, buying the Franco-Ezo navy time to destroy their naval escorts. This is heralded as the “Third Divine Wind”. No historical evidence exists to corroborate this story. The battle of Tsugaru marks the last military action of the Ezo War.

January, 1870: With its navy in tatters, and the Ezo Republic growing in strength under French protection, the Meiji government abandons attempts to militarily secure the island. It instead switches to a campaign of propaganda against Ezo, and diplomatically opposes its recognition. All travel to and trade with to the Republic is forbidden, and all associated with the Republic see their lands seized and titles invalidated, as the Meiji government pursues its historical feudal reforms.

1870: With the Meiji government pursuing a more aggressive anti-samurai and anti-feudal campaign, many illegally make the voyage to Ezo to escape repression. These migrants are aided by elements of the shinsengumi and European merchants, who smuggle the individuals on their ships to bolster the Republic’s small population base. The Republic also opens itself to Christianity at the behest of its French benefactors, and many Christians in Kyushu and Southern Japan migrate to the Republic to escape religious persecution.

The Ezo Republic has still not declared independence - while there are some pressures to do so, it maintains itself as the “legitimate” government of Japan. President Enomoto Takeaki steadfastly adheres to this philosophy, and turns the focus of his presidency toward developing Ezo into a “fortress of traditional Japanese values.” Somewhat contradicting these intentions, significant reforms are pushed through Congress, streamlining the government and establishing positions more in line with Western standards. Prince Kitashirakawa Yoshihisa is elevated to position of Emperor by the Ezo Republic’s government as a concession to Northern Honshu loyalists and more extreme future Homeland-faction samurai within the Republic. President Enomoto maintains his authority, and the rival claimant Emperor Enjuu (延寿) does not rule in any legal sense. The nation remains a Republic.

1871: Horace Capron, an American who had arrived in Ezo in 1870, is hired by the Japanese government as a technical advisor in order to modernize the economy and provide an economic base for the otherwise undeveloped and rather barren island Republic. His efforts bear fruit over the coming 5 years, and combined with European trade and investment, Ezo sees rapid economic growth. This further encourages economic migrants from Imperial Japan, providing vital manpower for Ezo. The economic growth also helps offset the heavy burden of the salaries to Samurai and other feudal era-elite, as Ezo’s bureaucracy becomes burdensome due to its maintenance of pre-Meiji titles. Most of these samurai are set to work in the development of the country, much to their chagrin, or to the growing armed forces.

These modernizing moves see the first resistance to the Ezo Republic by the locals of the island(s). Those original Japanese inhabitants, alongside the Ainu inhabitants, revolted against the Ezo Republic and are summarily crushed. Periodic resistance by locals against the “invading southerners” continues intermittently.

France suffers its defeat at the hands of Prussia, and Germany is formed. This largely does not affect France’s support of Ezo, as its naval forces were not vital to its combat against Prussia, but it does endear the Meiji government to the new German government. Germany finds an ally in Meiji Japan, and Germany sends technical advisors to bolster Meiji Japan’s army and navy.

1872: Russia recognizes the Ezo Republic, hoping to earn France’s favor and prevent the Franco-Ezo naval forces, some of the most powerful in the pacific, from making any moves against Russia’s far east possessions. Meiji protests, and many within the Meiji government note Russia’s intransience.

1873: President Enomoto is handily re-elected as president of the Republic in a vote by the Samurai class. Representing the first balloted elections in Japanese history, the election is organized across the republic, with proof of samurai class membership (in the form of an official government seal) the only requirement for voting. Enomoto runs unopposed, but is constitutionally barred from any further terms.

1874:Germany sends foreign advisors to Meiji Japan, and the Meiji government commissions the construction of two armored frigates and an assortment of lighter naval ships. This alarms the Ezo Republic, but most importantly, it alarms the British government, who is increasingly wary of Imperial Germany’s designs. Britain increases its investment in the industry of the Republic, and any lingering distrust due to British support of the Imperial faction in the Ezo War is mostly forgotten.

The ordered warships are not to be completed for at least five years (1878), but would greatly upset the naval balance of power in the Far East.

1875: The United States of America opens the first American Missionary School in Hakodate, and American and European missionaries flock to the Republic in their efforts to convert the populace to Christianity. While Catholicism is most popular due to Kyushu migrants and French missionary work, protestantism is increasingly popular among the new converts and merchant classes. A number of notable catholic converts achieve positions of power in the Republic’s government, and religious refugees continue to trickle in due to anti-Christian, anti-foreigner sentiment in Meiji. The rise of Christianity, and the growing importance of American trade, influence America further toward Ezo relative to Meiji Japan. Yet, America still maintains trade ties with Meiji, and American merchant vessels are often the only source of trade (and smuggling) between the two rival states.

The rise of Christianity begins to inflame some tensions within the Republic, with many traditional samurai viewing the religion with suspicion, and its converts as traitors to the traditionalist cause. 1875 sees the formation of two important factions within Republican politics - the Homeland Faction and the Sakoku faction. The Sakoku faction periodically organizes violence against Christian converts in an attempt to limit foreign influences. President Enomoto largely pursues a policy of toleration and non-intervention, though his son Masayoshi notably marries a Japanese Christian woman.

1876: Merchants and non-Samurai petition President Enomoto to expand their role in government, protesting the exclusive suffrage that is extended only to official samurai. Many protesters note that some prominent merchants have effectively purchased samurai status from corrupt government officials, married into samurai families, or simply produced forged samurai credentials for purposes of enjoying the benefits of the status. Angry samurai, fearing yet another reversal of their status, chase the protesters with their weapons and beat and kill 12 protesters.

President Enomoto addresses the crowd in Hakodote, and through his intervention, manages to disperse the crowd and call off the violent samurai counter-protesters. As a concession to the protesters, samurai and non-samurai are granted equal rights under the law in terms of justice, but voting is still restricted exclusively to the samurai class, and the special pensions given to samurai are maintained. This satisfies some protesters, but spurs the launch of rival non-samurai factions. Katsu Kaishu, the descendant of a minor samurai family and a merchant representing Sapporo in Congress who openly exposed corruption in the sale of samurai status to non samurai, leaves the Republican faction and founds the “Merchant Faction,” representing the interests of the new monied classes.

The violent protests and deaths are remembered as the August 9th incident, and spur the creation of the Freedom Party. The party operates underground from its base in Sapporo, with periodic harassment by the authorities seeking to limit its influence. Come election time in 1877, the party announces its own “true” election to take place in Sapporo for the second Sapporo seat, currently held by a member of the Sakoku faction, with the franchise expanded to all male citizens. The authorities explicitly forbid any such mock election, and threaten the party leaders with imprisonment should they follow through.

January, 1877: The election for second President of the Republic is months away (May), as President Enomoto is constitutionally forbidden from running for re-election. Among many members of his Republican Faction, there is a desire to amend the constitution so as to abolish term limits. This may be easier said than done, and would require the cooperation of the homeland faction in order to succeed. Enomoto has thus far not taken a firm position on this issue, and has sometimes hinted at a desire to retire from politics, or at least, acceptance of a smaller role. Enomoto’s consensus based politics has somewhat soured his relationship with some in the Republic, who equate his compromise and moderation with indecisiveness and standpatting. The other parties in Congress are opposed to the amendment to abolish term limits to various degrees, though few openly question the merits of Enomoto’s leadership.
Top