Reunified Germany during Cold War

galanx

Sorry, not sure if this should go in the books forum, but what was the book, spy/thriller type published in the 70s or early 80s, where East and West Germany secretly plotted to reunite and break away from the Warsaw Pact and NATO respectively? IIRC it involved the deployment of an advanced nuclear cruise missile system aimed at both sides.

Totally implausible, but, what if? Assume the system is deployed and gives Germany a MAD capability with at least the USSR and Britain.
 

M79

Not totally implausible.

It was proposed to let East Germany reunite with the West and even let the whole be a NATO country *if* there would be a definitive peace treaty had Beria come to power in 1953ish.

As for some sort of "Operation: Odin's Eye" or whatever you want to call it, why not? Put it around 1975 or 1981 and you might have a winner, though I doubt anyone will be happy with the idea of a resurgent Germany especially if she lays claim to chunks of Poland.
 

Steffen

I don´t buy it. The idea of national bolshewism or how you might call it is, after the war, purely existent in the minds of writers like John Le Carré. After the blocks settled in let´s say 1950, there is no real chance for reunification.

Most people in decision-making areas in the west distrusted the East and Stalin´s satrapes wholeheartedly and Eastern Germany wasn´t exactly souvereign in it´s foreign policy considerations and, as I have to add under Ah.com rules, not even a souvereign nation at all.
 

Doctor Haider

M79 said:
Not totally implausible.

It was proposed to let East Germany reunite with the West and even let the whole be a NATO country *if* there would be a definitive peace treaty had Beria come to power in 1953ish.

As for some sort of "Operation: Odin's Eye" or whatever you want to call it, why not? Put it around 1975 or 1981 and you might have a winner, though I doubt anyone will be happy with the idea of a resurgent Germany especially if she lays claim to chunks of Poland.
Click to expand...

As I remember the Berias's plan was the neutral united Germany. West Germany should pay a price for unification namely stay out of NATO.

Very stupid proposal if you ask me because USSR had no means to keep Germany neutral after the proposed reunification.
 
Last edited:

SunilTanna

I think you're thinking of Barbarossa Red, which I do remember reading when it was still future history.

My HAZY memory is that the German Chancellor wants to pull out of NATO to make a reunited neutral Germany armed with (French?) nuclear weapons. At some point the USSR gets annoyed, and invades. Later it turns out the German Chancellor was a Soviet agent all along, and the whole point of the proposal was to be an excuse for a Soviet invasion.

This page I found via Google looks like the same book: http://www.fantasticfiction.co.uk/j/dennis-jones/barbarossa-red.htm
 

carlton_bach

Doctor Haider said:
As I remember the Berias's plan was the neutral united Germany. West Germany should pay a price for unification namely stay out of NATO.

Very stupid proposal if you ask me because USSR had no means to keep Germany neutral after the proposed reunification.
Click to expand...

Well, they *would* have had a military presence just across the border and a nuclear strike force woith the ability to hit anywhere inside Germany (which was more than you could say for most of NATO).

From the perspective of 1953, the plan would have made sense. It replaces a large, expensive-to-defend chunk of the border between NATO and the Soviet sphere with a neutral, finlandised regime and deprives the West of valuable industrial potential, strategic depth and population to a much greater extent than the Soviets (swap the GDR for the FRG - any day). The USSR back then knew how inferior its forces really were, and Stalin and his crew feared NATO aggression. In addition, the Soviets had somewhat unrealistic estimation of the future prospects of Communism in Western Europe in the 50s, so they would not have expected their allies to lose hold completely. And even if not, the deneutralisation of unified Germany would have been a casus belli, so NATO would have to think twice about accepting them even if the Germans had wanted in.

Not that I think the Soviets wouldn't have used every trick in the book to be backseat drivers in the new Germany, but even if their attempt had failed the outcome would have benefited them and hurt NATO.
 

Doctor Haider

carlton_bach said:
From the perspective of 1953, the plan would have made sense. It replaces a large, expensive-to-defend chunk of the border between NATO and the Soviet sphere with a neutral, finlandised regime and deprives the West of valuable industrial potential, strategic depth and population to a much greater extent than the Soviets (swap the GDR for the FRG - any day). The USSR back then knew how inferior its forces really were, and Stalin and his crew feared NATO aggression. In addition, the Soviets had somewhat unrealistic estimation of the future prospects of Communism in Western Europe in the 50s, so they would not have expected their allies to lose hold completely. And even if not, the deneutralisation of unified Germany would have been a casus belli, so NATO would have to think twice about accepting them even if the Germans had wanted in.
Click to expand...

Maybe you're right. Interesting. If USSR keeps much less military forces in Eastern Europe than in OTL two possible consequences follow:

1. USSR spends much less money for military purposes and its economy becomes less militarized as a result.
2. Soviet geopolitical activity increases in other areas of the world or/and the USSR invests more money in the soviet navy.
 

carlton_bach

Doctor Haider said:
Maybe you're right. Interesting. If USSR keeps much less military forces in Eastern Europe than in OTL two possible consequences follow:

1. USSR spends much less money for military purposes and its economy becomes less militarized as a result.
2. Soviet geopolitical activity increases in other areas of the world or/and the USSR invests more money in the soviet navy.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, the USSR remains paranoid, so I doubt they'd really significantly reduce their military force. We have to remind ourselves periodically that they expected the US and its allies to come rolling across their borders any day.
 

Slowpoke

An interesting side-effect would be that the USSR invests more in their space programme, so they end up with a guy on the moon in the mid-60's.
 

giroton

Banned
If it happens in the 1980's then Germany can reunite
If it's while Stalin live then Germany will become a warzone.
 

carlton_bach

giroton said:
If it happens in the 1980's then Germany can reunite
If it's while Stalin live then Germany will become a warzone.
Click to expand...

I would rather suspect the opposite. In 1980, the USSR lives in the illusion of parity, buoyed up by the calamities the past decade hasd heaped upon America. It also has a powerful nuclear deterrent against the CONUS. During Stalin's lifetime, the USSR had a flimsy pretense of military might and a pitifully inadequate arsenal of nuclear weapons with next to no way of delivering them to the main enemy. Stalin knew he was always negotiating from a position of weakness, which made him aggressive, but cautious. Breshnev assumed he was negotiating from a position of strength which is much more dangerous.
 

giroton

Banned
I don't know if it's possibile that Stalin would back down if he was dealing was a strengthened Germany but then again you might be right. I will think about it.
 

aktarian

I read somewhere that Stalin didn't insist that Austria be divided as well but rather unified but strictly neutral because he had hopes for something similar with Germany. Unified but neutral on austrian rather swiss or swedish model. They form neutral zone in central Europe which with Yugoslav split would extend into Balkans as well.

There would be no EEC as French wouldn't see the need for ECSC but we might see France, Italy, Benelux and maybe/later Spain, Portugal, UK, Denmark and Norway forming one such group while Germany and Austria would likely do something similar or at least remove customs. Sweden might join as well. With collapse/transformation of communism (later, no huge military drain on soviet economy) they would either join or develop close ties. If E Europe develops Comecon-like bloc they could be part of it as well.
 

B_Munro

1980's Cold War unification? Er, (waves hands wildly) Soviet civil war, troops pulled out of Eastern Europe, revolt breaks out everywhere, hardliners eventually win but by that time German reunification a fait accompli?

Carlton, you're right that a neutralized Germany probably would have been a better deal for the USSR than what they got, but the trouble was that the Western powers knew it too, and really disliked the idea, as did Adenauer: even if Beria or Stalin were enthusiastic about the notion [1], it wasn't going to fly.

(So, to pull it off we need Beria (or at least a Stalin with rather different ideas than OTL) + Someone Else as German leader. Who seems like a possible candidate?)

Bruce


[1] Stalin seems to have floated the idea mainly so it could be shot down and so he could blame the West for continued German division...
 

carlton_bach

B_Munro said:
Carlton, you're right that a neutralized Germany probably would have been a better deal for the USSR than what they got, but the trouble was that the Western powers knew it too, and really disliked the idea, as did Adenauer: even if Beria or Stalin were enthusiastic about the notion [1], it wasn't going to fly.
So we need Beria (or at least a Stalin with rather different ideas than OTL) + Someone Else as German leader. Who seems like a possible candidate?)
Click to expand...

You could have the SPD win the 1949 elections. They might be naive enough to fall for it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top