Return to the Phoney War after victory over France

Tucknak

Banned
After the victory over France, Hitler is either convinced by Raeder or Goering that an invasion of Britain is to difficult, or shifts his attention towards the USSR and leaves Britain alone. The war at sea is still going on, but there is no BoB and no attempts of invasion.

Besides saving some 4000 aircraft and a lot of fuel for the invasion against the USSR, does this approach weaken American support for Britain? Does this approach present a difficulty for the British Bombing campaign?
 
Lot of people think Stalin wouldnt be caught off guard...sending more forces to the border...but they could all get captured anyway
 
After the victory over France, Hitler is either convinced by Raeder or Goering that an invasion of Britain is to difficult, or shifts his attention towards the USSR and leaves Britain alone. The war at sea is still going on, but there is no BoB and no attempts of invasion.

Besides saving some 4000 aircraft and a lot of fuel for the invasion against the USSR, does this approach weaken American support for Britain? Does this approach present a difficulty for the British Bombing campaign?

If Luftwaffe had not bombed London(by mistake the first time) the RAF would not have attacked Berlin.
 
If Luftwaffe had not bombed London(by mistake the first time) the RAF would not have attacked Berlin.
Maybe not at the time they did in OTL, but I wouldn't be sure they never were going to. After all, they did bomb cities before London.
 
Does this approach present a difficulty for the British Bombing campaign?
Yes its really terrible for the British...
They get to build up slowly without the panic of OTL and with US still sufficiently scared after the FoF that they are willing to support GBs build up....
They give up on a very ineffective bombing campaign that achieved few results early on for the first few years....
They get a much reduced BoA or at least one with more MPAs to reduce loses.....
They get to send far more to the Med that massively hurts the Italians and leads to far fewer British loses.....
 

elkarlo

Banned
If Luftwaffe had not bombed London(by mistake the first time) the RAF would not have attacked Berlin.
But if they did it just once to get Churchill to attack Germany with bombers, it'd be a boon. No BoB and the RAF attacking Germany in vein would until heavy US involvement, work in Germany's favor. Iotl RAF attacked France a lot and lost around 220 fighters in 41 for half that against the Luftwaffe. Which also means that the pilot loss rate was probably 4-5 to one in Germany's favor
 
But if they did it just once to get Churchill to attack Germany with bombers, it'd be a boon. No BoB and the RAF attacking Germany in vein would until heavy US involvement, work in Germany's favor. Iotl RAF attacked France a lot and lost around 220 fighters in 41 for half that against the Luftwaffe. Which also means that the pilot loss rate was probably 4-5 to one in Germany's favor
Daylight fighter sweeps have very little to do with strategic bombing by night. No BoB is clear signal to the British that the Germans have given up on invading and so they can free up resources for the Middle East and Far East.
 
So, does this mean he doesn't do anything in Northern Africa and leaves the Italians out to dry?
 
So, does this mean he doesn't do anything in Northern Africa and leaves the Italians out to dry?

As tempting as I find this premise to be, the UK had a lot of holdings in Africa and the Mediterranean that would sooner or later draw them into a war with the axis. I can very well see a proxy war where the Nazis and the UK unofficially fight alongside the Italians and the Greek. Same for the Suez region and of course Malta.
 
Germany isn't going to ignore Britain, it's a flank in the war and the distance between them is at the lowest point a dozen or so miles.

The Luftwaffe not going all out for aerial supremacy would be a major turn, though. It's still going to attack all the Channel ports, bomb the shipping, and attack anything it knows are control and command stations, because it wants theatre supremacy. The difference here is that the theatre here is the Channel, and not the whole of Southern England.

The main question, as raised, is about the bombing of population centres, as opposed to docks, etc that are located within them or on their peripherary.
 

elkarlo

Banned
Daylight fighter sweeps have very little to do with strategic bombing by night. No BoB is clear signal to the British that the Germans have given up on invading and so they can free up resources for the Middle East and Far East.
Doesn't mean they'll do that. Fighter sweeps and attacks may very well be the priority. Just because it's logical to us, doesn't mean it's what they'd do.
 
Doesn't mean they'll do that. Fighter sweeps and attacks may very well be the priority. Just because it's logical to us, doesn't mean it's what they'd do.

But I'm not just talking about fighters, I'm talking about all the other resources that were tied down waiting for an invasion that never came.
 

elkarlo

Banned
But I'm not just talking about fighters, I'm talking about all the other resources that were tied down waiting for an invasion that never came.
True, but it doesn't mean that they'll move with after sight. Public opinion is still a major factor and easing fears is a real thing. Plus many units had to be rebuilt and retrained and probably weren't fit going overseas yet
 
True, but it doesn't mean that they'll move with after sight. Public opinion is still a major factor and easing fears is a real thing. Plus many units had to be rebuilt and retrained and probably weren't fit going overseas yet

And yet even when they did think an invasion was imminent they sent reinforcements to the Middle East. If the BoB doesn't happen there may be advantages for the Nazi's but there are also advantages for the British, you can't simply handwave them away.
 

elkarlo

Banned
And yet even when they did think an invasion was imminent they sent reinforcements to the Middle East. If the BoB doesn't happen there may be advantages for the Nazi's but there are also advantages for the British, you can't simply handwave them away.
I'm not hand waving. I just don't think the British had much to send that was in a state of readiness. Being sent overseas messes up ones organization.
Plus they'll just best up the Italians more. No one wants to see that. I know you can best up my grandmother
 
I'm not hand waving. I just don't think the British had much to send that was in a state of readiness. Being sent overseas messes up ones organization.
Plus they'll just best up the Italians more. No one wants to see that. I know you can best up my grandmother

Sorry but with no BoB, no Blitz and no invasion barges gathering across the channel that will change British strategy. At the very least they can free up more ships for convoy escort duties and more units can be earmarked for the Middle East as they become available.
Really though its academic, the Germans can't ignore the British at their back and allow them the regroup and rearm, they want the British out of the war before they turn east. Ironically one of the things that influenced the timing of Barbarossa was the hope that with the USSR crushed the British would realize there was no hope of defeating Nazi Germany and make a deal. Leaving the British to their own devices is a recipe for disaster.
 

elkarlo

Banned
Sorry but with no BoB, no Blitz and no invasion barges gathering across the channel that will change British strategy. At the very least they can free up more ships for convoy escort duties and more units can be earmarked for the Middle East as they become available.
Really though its academic, the Germans can't ignore the British at their back and allow them the regroup and rearm, they want the British out of the war before they turn east. Ironically one of the things that influenced the timing of Barbarossa was the hope that with the USSR crushed the British would realize there was no hope of defeating Nazi Germany and make a deal. Leaving the British to their own devices is a recipe for disaster.
I agree with everything save the last part. Churchill loved his schemes. I wouldn't discount his whacky plans. Guy was on board invading northern Germany via the Baltic in WWI afterall. Iirc
 
Sorry but with no BoB, no Blitz and no invasion barges gathering across the channel that will change British strategy. At the very least they can free up more ships for convoy escort duties and more units can be earmarked for the Middle East as they become available.

OTOH, with the Germans not bombing Britain could make for Lend Lease Act.not passing. Having Edward R Murrow reporting from London on calm skies over England doesn't really ramp up sympathy for the UK, right after reports of the RN whacking the French fleet at Mers-el-Kebir
 
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