So, say the secret treaty that gave France back Louisiana failed. The alliance between Spain and France is terminated, but Spain doesn't join the following coalitions. They become neutral, and just mind their business.
What could result from this? Could Minister Godoy stay minister of Spain? Could Charles IV remain King of Spain? Or is the king king too incompetent that it's inevitable he gets overthrown by Ferdinand VII? What are the long term effects of this for the Spanish Empire?