Results of Neutral Spain in the early 19th century

So, say the secret treaty that gave France back Louisiana failed. The alliance between Spain and France is terminated, but Spain doesn't join the following coalitions. They become neutral, and just mind their business.

What could result from this? Could Minister Godoy stay minister of Spain? Could Charles IV remain King of Spain? Or is the king king too incompetent that it's inevitable he gets overthrown by Ferdinand VII? What are the long term effects of this for the Spanish Empire?
 
Neutrality is not an option. Napoleon won’t allow it. See Portugal for exhibit A.

Spain had been looking for a way to get out of their alliance, and had mobilized for joining the coalition, but Prussia lost in record time and Spain stood down and made some flimsy excuse. Shortly after, Nap attempted a takeover.

This was a war where you were on one side or the other. Spain was still at war with Britain, who wasn’t going to just let them drop out and sit on the sidelines. As with Portugal, Britain would force them to open ports, which is unacceptable to France.
 
Neutrality is not an option. Napoleon won’t allow it. See Portugal for exhibit A.

Spain had been looking for a way to get out of their alliance, and had mobilized for joining the coalition, but Prussia lost in record time and Spain stood down and made some flimsy excuse. Shortly after, Nap attempted a takeover.

This was a war where you were on one side or the other. Spain was still at war with Britain, who wasn’t going to just let them drop out and sit on the sidelines. As with Portugal, Britain would force them to open ports, which is unacceptable to France.

I see your point. Let us just say for the purpose of this scenario either Napoleon is suddenly diplomatic and just rules France or is gone altogether.

Perhaps Spain could join the League of Armed Neutrality to remedy the Portugal effect? If this is impossible, let us allow Spain to stay in the alliance until the end of the Second Coalition, and have no more wars with France vs. everyone afterwords.
 
Ok. Hand wavium, Spain is neutral. Pretty major results. Charles could remain King. Nap, otl, had his hand in stirring up anti Charles sentiment, which is now butterflied away. Godoy could remain in charge, having twice earned his moniker prince of peace. Sans major crisis, the two bumblers could muddle along.
The country isn’t ripped apart.
The colonies still have the beginning of separatist sentiment, but without the mother country in chaos, the sentiment stays in the background. For how long is a guess.
The war was pretty devastating to Spain, so magically eliminating it changes everything.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Neutral means exactly what though? Napoleon wanted all of Europe to boycott Britain. Britain wanted countries to keep their ports open to British goods. How is this bring resolved? How will Napoleon react? Napoleon wanted to assemble an European navy capable of challenging the British navy who were blockading French ports. To accomplish this he wanted Dutch, Spain and Portugal to give him their navies. Godoy was detested by Ferdinand and was afraid that the king was going to have him arrested and executed. So he negotiated with Napoleon to align Spain with France and together both would invade Portugal to get its navy and force it to close its ports to Britain. Godoy’s reward would be all Portuguese land south of taugus river as his personal kingdom.

So what is going to happen with Portugal. Will France be allowed to cross Spain to attack Portugal? What will happen when per iOTL the French army steals and plunders Spain to replenish its meager supplies? Any actions by Spain to support France would put Spain on the French side and against Britain.
 
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