Results of different WW1 alliances

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Deleted member 1487

I know that this must be completely done to death by now, but how could France, Britain, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottomans face Germany and Russia? Would it even be possible with the reinsurance treaty? Would Germany even be willing to throw Austria to the wolves and buddy up with Russia or even possibly partition Austria-Hungary (which honestly makes the most sense to me for both sides-German parts of Austria to Germany; Russia get Slovakia, the Czech parts of Bohemia and Moravia, and Galicia; Romania gets most of Transylvania; Serbia the Southern Slav parts; Italy enough to wet their beaks; and Hungary into a rump state).

Of course this probably would erupt into a wider war, as France and Britain try to prevent the old man of Europe from being broken up and aggrandizing their neighbors. It would also mean that Russia now has only one direction to expand:Asia, something that the Brits want to prevent. Germany is now very strong and dangerous to both the British and French.
 
I know that this must be completely done to death by now, but how could France, Britain, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottomans face Germany and Russia? Would it even be possible with the reinsurance treaty? Would Germany even be willing to throw Austria to the wolves and buddy up with Russia or even possibly partition Austria-Hungary (which honestly makes the most sense to me for both sides-German parts of Austria to Germany; Russia get Slovakia, the Czech parts of Bohemia and Moravia, and Galicia; Romania gets most of Transylvania; Serbia the Southern Slav parts; Italy enough to wet their beaks; and Hungary into a rump state).

Of course this probably would erupt into a wider war, as France and Britain try to prevent the old man of Europe from being broken up and aggrandizing their neighbors. It would also mean that Russia now has only one direction to expand:Asia, something that the Brits want to prevent. Germany is now very strong and dangerous to both the British and French.

Hmm. I'd have to think about that. A-H would have to maintain a force to guard a against Italy & Serbia, and that would leave the Hapsburgs and the Ottomans to face off against Russia while the former also have an extremely long border with Germany. If nearly the entire Ottoman army is available against Russia, with Entente transport & logistical help plus British imperial expeditionary forces, Russia will have serious problems in its southern theater. Germany won't be able to commit quite as much force against France due to the A-H border. It doesn't look too good for Russia and Germany.
 
Let's see...

Germany can buy stuff from the States at nearly no danger of interception (Vladivostok-Trans Siberian-Prussia), though that has its own disadvantages.

Austria-Hungary goes crunch. Given their poor showing against the Serbs OTL, and the lack of the German army to hold off the Russian Steamroller, the Dual Monarchy is split apart very quickly.

France has an easier time of it. The Germans and Russians are likely to focus on knocking the obviously weaker opponent out as quickly as possible, so the Alliance is likely to hold a generally defensive posture on the Western Front.

Britain may or may not jump in. If Germany is fighting Austria-Hungary, Italy will join up with the Germans. This could stretch the French Army far enough that a flanking attack through Belgium isn't required. Of course, going through Highway Benelux is traditional for any German invasion of France...
 

Deleted member 1487

Hmm. I'd have to think about that. A-H would have to maintain a force to guard a against Italy & Serbia, and that would leave the Hapsburgs and the Ottomans to face off against Russia while the former also have an extremely long border with Germany. If nearly the entire Ottoman army is available against Russia, with Entente transport & logistical help plus British imperial expeditionary forces, Russia will have serious problems in its southern theater. Germany won't be able to commit quite as much force against France due to the A-H border. It doesn't look too good for Russia and Germany.

I'm somewhat surprised that you say so. In the long term, you are right; Russia is vulnerable all over her southern flank: the Ukraine, Caucasus, etc.
But the Austro-Hungarians are going to fold badly and very quickly. Serbia is going to attack, Romania is extremely likely to join in, Galicia is indefensible, as the Russians can now deploy in Congress Poland with at least another army or two, even with extra armies deployed in the Ukraine for defense. The 7th army is freed up if Romania joins in and the 9th and 10th Russian armies can be deployed where ever they are needed. The Germans can keep 4-5 armies in the West and deploy the rest against Austria's industrial heartland. Austria itself would fall before the BEF or French could deploy north of the Balkans.

Once Austria-Hungary folds, which could be in a few months honestly, with remaining element along the Adriatic coast holding out with French and British troops. Hungary would probably cut a deal, seeing the writing on the wall. Where does this leave everyone else? The French offensive into Alsace-Lorraine has fallen apart, there have been some landings in the black sea, but the Russians can reinforce faster than the Entente can bring in men, the Ottomans are bogged down in the Caucasus. Eventually Germany is going to force their way through Belgium, which widens the front and draws French and British attention back to Western Europe leaving the rest as a side show. Can the Ottomans hold the line with limited British and French support? The Russians will probably have the Balkan and Caucasian theater while the Germans can concentrate 80-90% of their forces in the West.

Actually, I don't see this being favorable for the Entente in the long run either, even with the Ottomans helping out. Though this means the Ottomans survive the war intact, that would probably be the only major result they would get. With an undistracted Russia, the Ottomans are not likely to breakthrough in the Caucasus and I doubt the French and British with Ottoman support would get very fall in Ukraine or the Crimea. The Balkans may stay 'hot' for a while after Austria collapses, but I don't see this being a major theater of war past 1914 (or whenever the war actually starts).
 
If Germany decides to throw it's lot with Russia then could they try to keep the war from starting so the Russians can modernize their military in 1917? That was one of the reason the Germans wanted to go to war then so they could knock them out before that happened. In fact if Germany allies to Russia then could they try to get the Russians to modernize sooner? Either way the Italians are likely to join Germany to get the parts of AH they've wanted for a while now and since they will also be going against France, that also means the possibility to get Savory, Nice, and Tunisia. So it's practically guaranteed that the Italians will join the war on Germany's side, maybe even from the start. So that means the French are even more strained.

Once it becomes clear that AH is going to be partitioned Serbia (if it hasn't already), Romania and italy will join the Central Powers.
And depending on how the Russians do against the Ottomans, the Greeks might also join the CP to get something as well.
This means that the Germans will now only have to deal with the French and unlike OTL they won't be tired, exhausted, or lacking in troops.

So basically a CP victory.
 

wormyguy

Banned
If nearly the entire Ottoman army is available against Russia, with Entente transport & logistical help plus British imperial expeditionary forces, Russia will have serious problems in its southern theater.
Except that's not possible due to logistical constraints.

It's also worth noting that Austria is a write-off, as it's a virtual certainty that the Germans will be in Vienna and Prague and the Russians in Budapest within a month. Italy, Serbia, and Romania almost certainly join in too. That leaves the Ottomans, France, and Britain against Russia and Germany. In other words, the two most powerful countries (Russia and Germany) in Europe vs. 3 (Britain), 4 (France), and a distant 5 (the Ottomans). Italy, Serbia, and Romania, as mentioned above, almost certainly join the Central Powers to gain a piece of the Austro-Hungarian pie, and after Austria's capitulation Greece probably joins the CPs, and Bulgaria might, to carve off bits of the Ottomans. The Russian troops freed up from fighting both Germany and Austria are orders of magnitude larger than any Ottoman troops that might be freed up (and, rather, it will be the reverse of OTL with more having to be committed to Europe due to the Austrian collapse), meaning that it's likely that within 5 months the Russians are in Konya and Baghdad and the German-Greco-Italian combined force has captured Constantinople. That leaves Germany, Italy, and presumably a Russian expeditionary force to take out France and the BEF, which shouldn't take longer than a three-month offensive, if they haven't sued for peace already.





One scenario that I am interested in is the OTL alliances, except that the Italians are in the Central Powers camp and the Ottomans remain neutral.
 
Except that's not possible due to logistical constraints.

It's also worth noting that Austria is a write-off, as it's a virtual certainty that the Germans will be in Vienna and Prague and the Russians in Budapest within a month. Italy, Serbia, and Romania almost certainly join in too. That leaves the Ottomans, France, and Britain against Russia and Germany. In other words, the two most powerful countries (Russia and Germany) in Europe vs. 3 (Britain), 4 (France), and a distant 5 (the Ottomans). Italy, Serbia, and Romania, as mentioned above, almost certainly join the Central Powers to gain a piece of the Austro-Hungarian pie, and after Austria's capitulation Greece probably joins the CPs, and Bulgaria might, to carve off bits of the Ottomans. The Russian troops freed up from fighting both Germany and Austria are orders of magnitude larger than any Ottoman troops that might be freed up (and, rather, it will be the reverse of OTL with more having to be committed to Europe due to the Austrian collapse), meaning that it's likely that within 5 months the Russians are in Konya and Baghdad and the German-Greco-Italian combined force has captured Constantinople. That leaves Germany, Italy, and presumably a Russian expeditionary force to take out France and the BEF, which shouldn't take longer than a three-month offensive, if they haven't sued for peace already.





One scenario that I am interested in is the OTL alliances, except that the Italians are in the Central Powers camp and the Ottomans remain neutral.
I think it's also a CP victory scenario since while Italy's troops might not be that useful they do help because Italy a part of the CP means less troops against Austria, which means more troops against Serbia, Romania, and Greece. And More troops against France. France almost lost the war from just the German's, the Italians might possibly stretch the French beyond what the can manage.
 

Deleted member 1487

Italy won't be a player for the CPs in the early stages if at all. Basically it was too vulnerable to interdiction by sea from the British. So long as Britain is in the war, Italy cannot join in. It would probably get the Italian parts of the AH empire as buy off not to join the Entente and to open a clandestine trade to get around the British blockade. Greece too cannot join the way, as its trade is far too vulnerable to the Entente navies. There would be a revolution if it was disrupted. Bulgaria might very well join in too if it thinks it can get some Ottoman territory, but it would require German assistance to be able to get through the stubborn Ottoman resistance and forts leading to Istanbul. I could definitely see the Russians wanting to take part in that move, where their manpower would be helpful: think German technical expertise and artillery, Bulgarian experience in the area, with Russian manpower pushing ahead.

I guess it comes down to which side is willing to compromise. The destruction of AH is going to be confirmed, and it the Entente will either have to accept it, or be willing to fight for years to perhaps get some bones at negotiating table after having their economies destroyed.
 
This is probably going to be a CP victory. Why? Several reasons.

Austria is being attacked on all sides and will fall as fast as the CPs can occupy it. The Ottomans won't be in much better shape, given how they performed in 1912 against just Greece, Serbia, and Bulgaria. Add Germany and Russia against them and they get beaten very quickly. By the time the dust settles in the Balkans, the Germans are going to be able to concentrate their whole strength on the Western Front, along with the Italians. That doesn't bode well for the French. Also, the BEF will probably be smaller ITTL due to the need for troops to face the Russians in the Balkans,Persia, and Afghanistan.

One side effect of this; Japan is almost certainly going to join in on this, since they will want to get even more out of Russia while Russia is distracted in the West. So they will probably be an Entente power. However, once things go sour in the Balkans and Austria falls, I suspect they will start having second thoughts. Russia will probably take some initial losses in the Far East, and in the Middle East for that matter, but once they can bring a large part of their forces out of the Balkans and into the East they will start getting all of their losses back and more besides.
 
Everyone seems to be ignoring how, much as their interests often contrdicted, Austria and Germany pretty much acknowledged after 1871 that they wouldn't, couldn't directly quarrel. For both sides, the Austro-German alliance was a pillar of domestic support from the pan-Germans (who were collectively the third faction in the Reichsrat) as well as, and sometimes more than, an entirely calculated foreign-policy choice.

Austria had enough domestic troubles as it was, what with the, ah, abrupt end of the Stuergkh regime, and the Social Democrats and Kaiser Karl trying to conspire to make peace and all that. I can hardly see how she would weather one defeat without outright mutineering.

So, if Germany really justs need to send a shock-army down the Danube hullooing before Austria starts to fall to bits, I really don't see how the Austrians are supposed to last.

Germany has eight or so armies to play with. To attack France with a vast, bold, risky manouvre was thought necessary to crush the French before the Russians could mobilise. If Germany and Russia are best buds, this is of course unnecessary, so Germany doesn't need "the same forces" against France: it needs three armies, tops, for the French to bash their heads against ineffectually while the bulk to the German forces are free to utterly compromise the lengthy Austrian border by their superior numbers and take Prague and Vienna as the Hapsburg state topples over.

The Austrians, with six armies in 1914, managed to not defeat Serbia while simultaneously being defeated by Russia (it was German pricks elsewhere that halted the Russian tide in Galicia). They weren't bad soldiers , they were just stretched to the limit of their resources by two fronts. Three or four, including a domestically disastrous one that happens to be too long to defend effectively, is right out.

The Ottomans will indeed have a vastly improved logistical and troops situation, but the Russians have at least a couple more armies going south. The Caucasus favour the defender, so I predict it will just settle down somewhere not terribly far from the pre-war frontier to either side. Eventually, the Russians can just throw everything south, and damn, there are a lot of them; but by that time the *Entente will probably be looking for terms anyway.

Britain has six excellent divisions, and needs time to mobilise anything else. Where do we send them? To a France which will shortly have the entire German army coming down on it like a ton of bricks, while the Italians possibly help themselves to a share of the spoils? Probably (the French considered it a political gesture), but I doubt it will do much good to anyone.

The Germans and Russians frankly can't lose. When you take the continent's two top land-powers, with the biggest and the best army in the world, which in OTL spent all their time being scared shitless of one-another (diplomatically as well as domestically, this scenario is supremely unlikely: Germany and Russia are perfectly capable of building a working alliance, but it's hardly likely when both of them happen to be reaching peaks of their power that made other people a bit jittery), and have them to take on everybody else, that's the expected result.
 
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elkarlo

Banned
I think you could make a POD with Bismark. If he didn't get AH in line after their war with each other, AH could have gone a different alliance route.
 

Typo

Banned
Japan would be on the Entente side, in exchange for western concessions in allowing them to pretty much have Manchuria.
 
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