Result of Austria-Hungary immediately invading Serbia in 1914?

What would the result of an immediate invasion of Serbia be?

  • Russia intervenes on Serbia’s behalf, Germany backs Austria, and a war similar to OTL breaks out

    Votes: 10 24.4%
  • Austria quickly forces Serbia to terms giving Russia no chance to do anything

    Votes: 17 41.5%
  • Austria gets bogged down, but Russia still does nothing and Serbia eventually gets forced to terms

    Votes: 2 4.9%
  • Austria gets bogged down, and Russia then gets involved, triggering a war similar to OTL

    Votes: 13 31.7%
  • Serbia takes Vienna, then Budapest, then the world

    Votes: 3 7.3%
  • Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    41
If Austria had not waited and launched an invasion of Serbia almost immediately after the assassination of Ferdinand, how do things play out in your view?

Also, if Serbia is successfully subdued without Russian intervention, how much (if at all) does this enhance Austria’s security situation?
 
I’ll explain in more detail later but essentially Britain is key here and would likely not condemn Austria, handicapping any Franco-Russian response
 
The French General Staff gamed this out in 1912. They concluded that if the Russians waited until the Austrians were fully committed to Serbia and couldn't pull out B staffel, then the Russians would gain a decisive advantage. The Austrians would be thrown hopelessly on the defensive in Galicia and it should be enough to win the war

Unfortunately, no one remembered the study in 1914
 
The French General Staff gamed this out in 1912. They concluded that if the Russians waited until the Austrians were fully committed to Serbia and couldn't pull out B staffel, then the Russians would gain a decisive advantage. The Austrians would be thrown hopelessly on the defensive in Galicia and it should be enough to win the war

Unfortunately, no one remembered the study in 1914

Germany will not sit by and watch her last ally be partitioned by Russia and Serbia
 
Germany will not sit by and watch her last ally be partitioned by Russia and Serbia
No one said Germany would sit still Germany is however still going West.

The Austrians are still going to have to fight but the balance in Galicia is going to favor the Russians even more

The British will fight just like they do in OTL
They care only about preserving their Empire. It just won't matter as the Austrians are going down hard
 
The British will fight just like they do in OTL
No they won’t, the British press was the most sympathetic to the Austrians out of all the powers barring Germany. Grey was very susceptible to public opinion which would likely not support any British intervention.

Honestly saying “it’d be just like OTL” should be banned on this site, just leads to excessive laziness
 
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No they won’t, the British press was the most sympathetic to the Austrians out of all the powers barring Germany. Grey was very susceptible to public opinion which would likely not support any British intervention.

Honestly saying “it’d be just like OTL” should be banned on this site, just leads to excessive laziness

Britain needs something to distract from the Irish home rule issue. and an invasion of Belgium a country which they guaranteed gives them that something.
 
Britain needs something to distract from the Irish home rule issue. and an invasion of Belgium a country which they guaranteed gives them that something.
Lots of faulty assumptions here:
The first is the false connection between a quick Austrian strike and the implementation of the Schlieffen Plan, and the second being that a German invasion through Belgium guarantees British intervention
 
Lots of faulty assumptions here:
The first is the false connection between a quick Austrian strike and the implementation of the Schlieffen Plan, and the second being that a German invasion through Belgium guarantees British intervention

The errors are yours I'm afraid.

First, the Germans will use the Moltke plan. They never considered any other. That means an attack on France via Belgium

That Austria attacked without warning violated diplomatic norms. The brutal invasion of a neutral country would clearly show the aggressive intent.

The British vital interests of preserving France as a great power and preventing the channel coast from coming under German control remain.

You have offered no reasons to the contrary. Assertions without reason are laziness not saying a POD changes little
 
First, the Germans will use the Moltke plan. They never considered any other. That means an attack on France via Belgium
Semantics, it’s obvious that I was referencing any plan that saw Germany marching on France.

That Austria attacked without warning violated diplomatic norms. The brutal invasion of a neutral country would clearly show the aggressive intent.
This “brutal invasion” would be met with much more sympathy as long as it finished up quickly and did not result in the end of Serbia. Even if within two weeks a major European conference forced Austria to completely withdraw fron Serbia, it would be a sufficient “show of strength” that Austria was still a power whose interests had to be considered.

The British vital interests of preserving France as a great power and preventing the channel coast from coming under German control remain.
Yes, the difference that I propose is that instead of gambling France away with a war, Britain would keep her in place and advise caution to Russia and France.
 
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Are we really gonna have another 50 page discussion on British intervention?
I'm not looking to debate British intervention, rather point out that the British press and popular opinion were very sympathetic to the dual monarchy after Sarajevo, and they would feel strongly enough to force Grey to "reign in" Russia, Serbia, and France, if Austria forced Britain to an action, rather than the historical case where Grey pretty much left everyone to their own devices until the very end.
 
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Nobody among the ruling class (royalty etc) wanted to see any crowned head being killed off. It was all family after all. So nobody would really encourage Serbia in this.

I think that the consensus has always been that IF AH could invade within a day, occupy Belgrade and threaten the rest unless reparations were made, Europe would have applauded them.

Why would Germany get involved before a lot more had happened? Especially in a shooting match with France? Sure there was only one plan, but Germany was not the first to mobilise (I believe Germany was the last of the Powers).

The thing that might swing the entire scenario of 'instant peace again' is that AH wanted a showdown with Russia before it became too late. The Russian modernization and the rapid build-up of railway capacity was no good to AH (with its rather huge Slav population).
 
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