This website is literally crawling with " could napoleon beat russia in 1812" threads with many Pods dating from this. And yet.......the equally brutal Peninsuler war, which arguably did more then russia to wear down and crush the french-dooming them to a drawn out in an endless guerilla war against spanish guerillas backed by the British army and their navy.The french were too streatched logisticly, they failed to win the hearts of the peasants while the british where able to constantly resupply thanks to their navy.The french were doomed.
Or where they? The british army faced compliet anniahlation on several occasions: at corunna, at Fuentes de Oñoro in 1811, at talavera and at Bussaco. If it had, the destruction of its only major army would doubtless have made the british cut all ties to the peninsuler and possible begin to open peace negotiations ( thoigh how coopretive napolon will be is debatable). Either way, its difficult to see how Britain can now outright beat napoelon. Russia and austria will be less likely to oppose napoleon as well.
The Spanish guerillas still remain of course, but its worth noting that prior to british arrival all spanish armies had been comprehensivly crushed by superor trained, led, diciplined french armies. By 1811, virtually all spanish armies had been crushed by the french. Only the guerillas remain.
Even here, its doubtful that spanish success could ever be achieved. Spanish guerillas were ill led, ill trained, very fractured and often fought each as much as the french. Many guerilla "heroes" were simple bandits and oppotunists who terrorised to local SPANISH population. And by the end of the war? Less then 18% of french troops were killed by guerillas, and there where whole regiments of " liberal spanish fought alongside the french.
Its highly possible then that starved of british assistance, the flames of resistance would gradually die and The french may become established as rulers in spain.In this case, what is the result for the world?
Arguably, span will be better of as it will become more liberalised, the spanish inquisition stopped and it will rapidly modernise ( it may even keep its empire for longer.
For the rest of europe-especally Brityain the situation looks less optimistic. And with peace finally settling on europe, napoelon may be tempted to look to spains possesions in america.......
But what is your opinion?