Let's say World War 1 ends in a stalemate in 1916 or 1917 - the CP retains much of their gains from the Eastern Front which includes AH's occupation of Serbia. What would Serbian resistance to the occupiers look like? How effective would it be?
Maybe I worded this wrongly, my apologies - I'm saying if a WW1 stalemate results in a peace where the CP retains their Eastern European gains but Western Europe's borders are restored to pre-1914 borders.That's not a stalemate, it's a Central Powers victory.
Did Austria-Hungary actually plan on annexing Serbia? I think the Hungarians would have had quite a few complaints about that. If you mean resistance against a puppet government, it would probably be strong in the beginning, weaken over time, then flare up every now and then when the puppet state's popularity takes a dive.Maybe I worded this wrongly, my apologies - I'm saying if a WW1 stalemate results in a peace where the CP retains their Eastern European gains but Western Europe's borders are restored to pre-1914 borders.
I was referring to Serbian resistance against a puppet government set up in Belgrade which is supported by Austro-Hungarian occupational forces - how effective could Serbian resistance prove to be?Did Austria-Hungary actually plan on annexing Serbia? I think the Hungarians would have had quite a few complaints about that. If you mean resistance against a puppet government, it would probably be strong in the beginning, weaken over time, then flare up every now and then when the puppet state's popularity takes a dive.
Resistance against the Soviets after WW2 accomplished pretty much nothing and fizzled out by the 1950s. The only significant popular revolt was in Hungary; that uprising was crushed with ease by the Red Army. It's worth noting that Hungary's puppet government at the time of the revolt was Stalinist, and the more moderate succeeding government faced much less resistance. I don't think resistance in Serbia would be any more significant or effective, as long as Austria-Hungary isn't too brutal or too incompetent.I was referring to Serbian resistance against a puppet government set up in Belgrade which is supported by Austro-Hungarian occupational forces - how effective could Serbian resistance prove to be?
How similar would AH and the USSR be in occupation?Resistance against the Soviets after WW2 accomplished pretty much nothing and fizzled out by the 1950s. The only significant popular revolt was in Hungary; that uprising was crushed with ease by the Red Army. It's worth noting that Hungary's puppet government at the time of the revolt was Stalinist, and the more moderate succeeding government faced much less resistance. I don't think resistance in Serbia would be any more significant or effective, as long as Austria-Hungary isn't too brutal or too incompetent.
Could Serbian resistance be strengthened by Serbian soldiers arriving from Salonika and other fronts abroad?I suppose this depends in part on what the new government in Serbia is like, and how oppressive it is. Still, remember that even IOTL, the Serbs lost a quarter of their population. They'd be pretty well gutted, most likely. And guerrilla fighters rarely won before WW2, so they probably wouldn't fare well.
Could Serbian resistance be strengthened by Serbian soldiers arriving from Salonika and other fronts abroad?
If Vienna wants to maintain their Serbian puppet state, then it would probably require occupational forces to attempt to put down any armed movements that want to expel A-H from their lands and re-establish an independent Kingdom of Serbia. For the rest, I'm not completely sure - what do you think could happen?Perhaps, but I think we still need more context. Are the A-H troops to stay in Serbia indefinitely? What aims do the rebels have beyond ending the occupation? Have they given up on Bosnia or not? Are Germany and Bulgaria willing to help keep them down? What ambitions do the Austrians have for the new government, besides an end to irredentism aimed at their territories?
Is a liberation of Serbia from CP occupation plausible at all?Resistance would be massive, especially after 1916. OTOH, even the most widespread and popular resistance movement isn't necessarily effective in its goals. I can see the resistance giving A-H a bloody nose, and making a nightmare for whichever puppet governments ends up in place; but a successful liberation of Serbia in the context of a CP victory scenario doesn't sound very likely.
There are many variables that could lessen - or expand and prolong - this resistance. The nature of the puppet government, the refugee situation, the duration of direct A-H occupation...The degree to which Serbian soldiers from the Salonika front would be able to return is also fairly important.
Resistance would be massive, especially after 1916. OTOH, even the most widespread and popular resistance movement isn't necessarily effective in its goals. I can see the resistance giving A-H a bloody nose, and making a nightmare for whichever puppet governments ends up in place; but a successful liberation of Serbia in the context of a CP victory scenario doesn't sound very likely.
There are many variables that could lessen - or expand and prolong - this resistance. The nature of the puppet government, the refugee situation, the duration of direct A-H occupation...The degree to which Serbian soldiers from the Salonika front would be able to return is also fairly important.
Is a liberation of Serbia from CP occupation plausible at all?
How much could arriving Serbian soldiers affect the Serbian resistance?
How long would Bulgaria be willing to fight against Serbian resistance?Bulgaria would never allow it. If there's even a hint the Habsburgs are going to have to evacuate, if have no doubt Sofia is going to step in to bolster the counter-Revolutionary forces to prevent the reemergence of a Serbia capable of trying to challenge their Balkan hegemony
Is a liberation of Serbia from CP occupation plausible at all?
How much could arriving Serbian soldiers affect the Serbian resistance?
Maybe I worded this wrongly, my apologies - I'm saying if a WW1 stalemate results in a peace where the CP retains their Eastern European gains but Western Europe's borders are restored to pre-1914 borders.
Could a rump but independent Serbia survive?#1: IMO a permanent liberation is very unlikely, if not completely implausible.
#2: A lot. If they return (or rather, when they return, because at least some of them are definitely finding their way back), that's a huge influx of manpower and weaponry to the resistance movement. In OTL, the Serbian resistance movement was demographically gutted, but they still managed to present a serious headache. Once the soldiers return, it stops being a serious headache and becomes a genuine threat to the CPs new order in Serbia.
Fine, a CP victory in the East.It's still called a CP victory