Republicans Win '08,Democratic Primary Candidates for '12?

There would be no such race in this scenario. Obama, unless he decided to run for governor, would be skating to re-election against what would likely be only token Republican opposition. And even if he ran for governor, that seat isn't going Republican. Kirk only won a narrow plurality against Ginnoulias, who was a weak candidate and fundraiser.
This. I remember this race, Illinois really didn't get all that Republican in 2010 despite the rest of the country heading in that direction. Kirk only won narrowly against a weak candidate and Pat Quinn even managed to beat Bill Brady. In the event that a Republican is President in 2008, Illinois will go even bluer.
 

Wallet

Banned
The only way for the GOP to win in 2008 is John Edwards being the Democratic nominee.

Obama doesn't run and Edward takes his place as the younger alternative to Hillary. His affair doesn't come out until after he is the nominee. He loses but still wins the popular vote.

Hillary wins in 2012 in a massive landslide, considering McCain would have made things so much worst
 
This. I remember this race, Illinois really didn't get all that Republican in 2010 despite the rest of the country heading in that direction. Kirk only won narrowly against a weak candidate and Pat Quinn even managed to beat Bill Brady. In the event that a Republican is President in 2008, Illinois will go even bluer.

That seat seems to be cursed. Peter Fitzgerald defeated Moseley Braun in '98, and then Obama won it in '04, and Kirk won it in 2010. It's flipped parties in the last three elections, and it looks likely to keep that streak alive, at least for this year.
 
That seat seems to be cursed. Peter Fitzgerald defeated Moseley Braun in '98, and then Obama won it in '04, and Kirk won it in 2010. It's flipped parties in the last three elections, and it looks likely to keep that streak alive, at least for this year.
Yup, and I will do my part to keep it alive this year and do my part to kill that streak in 2022.
 
The only way for the GOP to win in 2008 is John Edwards being the Democratic nominee.

Obama doesn't run and Edward takes his place as the younger alternative to Hillary. His affair doesn't come out until after he is the nominee. He loses but still wins the popular vote.

Hillary wins in 2012 in a massive landslide, considering McCain would have made things so much worst
I agree that Obama sitting it out and Edwards beating Hillary in the primaries and his scandals coming out in the general is the only way McCain wins in 2008, unless Bush's second term goes significantly different for the better. McCain of course would then go on to be the Republican version of Jimmy Carter and get trounced by Hillary (or Obama) in 2012.
 

Minty_Fresh

Banned
I agree that Obama sitting it out and Edwards beating Hillary in the primaries and his scandals coming out in the general is the only way McCain wins in 2008, unless Bush's second term goes significantly different for the better. McCain of course would then go on to be the Republican version of Jimmy Carter and get trounced by Hillary (or Obama) in 2012.
Bush's second term might have gone better had global energy prices stayed a bit more stable, as while the Housing Crisis was probably going to happen ever since the 70s, the economic crash easily could have happened a few years down the road.

More deft handling of Katrina, and not going after Social Security reform in 2005 would make him likely hovering in the 40s in approval rating. Having Iraq ironically be a lot worse in 2004 but somehow not cost him the election might help. The Surge worked, and worked well, but it was only able to work because the Army had to stand aside in Baghdad, let the Shiites and Sunnis wage war, and let the Shiites win, for the Surge to work. The Shiites clearing the Baghdad Suburbs of Sunnis earlier on lets a Surge become possible and work earlier on, and the War might not become unpopular among independents as a result.

One thing that Bush did well throughout his Presidency was staying above the growingly partisan media culture developing. This helped him in some regards and hurt him in others. Maybe if he decides to wade into that a bit more, he could inspire greater tribal loyalty on the right and therefore not lose Conservatives over Immigration reform. But I doubt this.
 
Bush's second term might have gone better had global energy prices stayed a bit more stable, as while the Housing Crisis was probably going to happen ever since the 70s, the economic crash easily could have happened a few years down the road.

In order for Energy Prices to stay stable, the Middle East would need to be more stable, and in order to do that, Iraq needs to be avoided or handled much differently. With regards to The Housing crisis, I would agree.

More deft handling of Katrina, and not going after Social Security reform in 2005 would make him likely hovering in the 40s in approval rating..
I agree that this would help and hovering in the 40s is still better than the low 30s and 20s, but hovering in the 40s is still not popular and thus the Democrats would still have the edge.

Having Iraq ironically be a lot worse in 2004 but somehow not cost him the election might help.

Given how close the 2004 election was, a worse Iraq would most likely result in Bush losing, as it was his administration that pushed for and made the case for the war. Having it blow up in their faces would hurt.

One thing that Bush did well throughout his Presidency was staying above the growingly partisan media culture developing. This helped him in some regards and hurt him in others. Maybe if he decides to wade into that a bit more, he could inspire greater tribal loyalty on the right and therefore not lose Conservatives over Immigration reform. But I doubt this.

This could help, but the Republican base doesn't decide general elections and I agree with you that it is unlikely to happen.
 
Republican winning in '08? Nominate someone like Jim Edgar (basically a blue-state red governor, a moderate bipartisan-appeal kinda guy).
 
Some candidates who haven't been mentioned as much before:
  • Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont: Bernie now has a few years as Senator under his belt, and if the economy doesn't bounce back, he'll be as much of an attractive candidate as he was in 2016 OTL. If the liberal wing of the party expands too much though, he could suffer from it.
  • Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware: Remains in the Senate instead and possibly nears the position of President pro tempore, remaining highly visible. While he did lost the primary in '08, he would still be more visible than any of the governors, for example, and he could still have been eligible as a running mate if someone else incorrect was nominated.
  • Fmr. Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee: There was a lot of media interest in '08 around him and even still some in this cycle. He could be marketed as a compromise between the pragmatic Clinton wing and the progressive wing of the Democratic party.
  • Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts: I don't think he'd gain any traction, realistically, but he was supposedly looking to run again for a while, and if there's an opening and nobody to fill it, we might at least see a campaign.
  • Gen. Wesley Clark: I don't know much about him yet, but I know there was still some interest in him running again in '08, and army generals remain appealing to moderates.
  • Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia: I don't actually know much about him beyond the basics, but his name floats around a lot.
I'm sure I'm missing a few lower-profile possibilities, but obviously Obama and Clinton, both of whom would likely remain in the Senate, would hold a lot of momentum long before any of these guys had a chance, and yes, that includes the loser - even if they don't end up running, it can and will create butterflies that crowd the race.
 
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