Republican Victory in Spanish Civil War

Of course, any hope of axis victory cames through the seizure of Suez. In OTL, with Gibraltar and Malta in british hands, the germans and italians came close, up to El Alamein, very near Alexandria, the last major british naval base. So I assume that with Gibraltar (and then Malta) in axis hands, and U-boat bases in Spain, they would have a much better chance to do so.

Close in terms of distance does not equate to close in terms of real chances, as a look at the logistical situation of the two sides at the time of that closeness will tell.
 
If he invades Spain first, Stalin is warned and more prepared. I guess he could always leave some garrisons in the Pyrinees and invade the USSR as in OTL. But Spain would have to be dealt with, the sooner the better.


Would Stalin necessarily care what happens to Spain?
 
Right, but that logistial situation would be much better with Gibraltar and Malta in german hands.

Gibraltar has no direct impact, none. It might, however, help in letting Malta fall.
Malta would have an impact on Italian shipping - not sunk if Malta is in Axis hands.

However, that was but one of the bottlenecks. Availability of stuff to send was another; the stuff handling capability of the North African ports was another; the long long stretch of desert, with no railway, from those ports to the front line was another. None of the three would be improved by the fall of Malta.
 
Bump

Gibraltar has no direct impact, none. It might, however, help in letting Malta fall.
Malta would have an impact on Italian shipping - not sunk if Malta is in Axis hands.
Surely a German-controlled Gibraltar has more of an impact than that? If the UK cannot safely send shipping through the Straits, that changes the strategic situation of the entire Western Med.? Althoguh you do mention a coupleof points like that.
However, that was but one of the bottlenecks. Availability of stuff to send was another; the stuff handling capability of the North African ports was another; the long long stretch of desert, with no railway, from those ports to the front line was another. None of the three would be improved by the fall of Malta.

Certainly.

Back to the OP: any more views on the original question(s)?
What do you think the consequences of a Republican Victory in the Spanish Civil war would be for WW2 ?

* Would Hitler be compelled to invade Spain?
* Would Franco (If he survives) and the Nationalists seek asylum in Germany or Italy?
* If they did win would the Spanish Government be just another Puppet of Stalin?
For myself, I would like to add:
- what sort of government might emerge after Republican victory? In 1936, '37, '38, '39?
- how might the above question be affected by Western aid to the Republicans?
 
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