Republican Victory in Spanish Civil War

Arctofire

Banned
Okay, so I've got a great idea for a timeline. My only issue is that I don't think my historical knowledge is date specific and detailed enough to attempt to write a full on timeline, even though I've got the basis idea of what I want it to be about.

The idea is that the Republicans win the Spanish Civil War. In our timeline, the military struggle was hindered by constant pandering to Britain and France for aid, which never came. In Felix Morrow's: Revolution and Counter-Revolution in Spain, it reveals the disastrous naval policy followed by the Naval Minister Jose Giral and later Indelecio Prietro, ordering sailors to retreat from Malaga even though it could easily have stopped the Moorish armies from invading Andalusia. The Communist Party pursued an entirely non-communist line when it sacrificed revolution for the Popular Front government, which was ineffective and disastrous when it came to managing the war effort. They remained not only loyal to the popular front government, but also served as one of its most right wing factions, and was a prime factor in leading Largo Caballero's fall from power.

The POUM potentially could have led the Republicans to victory. By far the most successful Trotskyist party in history, at the start of the war it could boast a higher membership than the PCE, having over 70,000, due to the heroic role it has played in the Asturian Miners Strike of 1934. Their biggest mistake however, was sticking with the Popular Front government and being insufficiently critical of the decisions it made, also underestimating the reactionary role of the Communist Party. Earlier mistakes were its sectarianism, it's refusal to work within the PSOE Young Socialists, which led the Stalinists to win them over to their side.

What if in an alternate timeline, Andres Nin sharply denounces the war policy of the Popular Front government, and called for immediate revolution against the fascists and the overthrow of the bourgeois Republicans, calling them spineless and undeserving of the people's sacrifice? The decreased role of the PCE, as well as the POUM's more active role, allows it to gain positions in the government, and Largo Cabellero is increasingly drawn to their conclusions. The Republican Left, PSOE Right, and Stalinists are expelled from the government and Popular Front, and the new workers government re-organises the militias into a fighting army, combining the revolutionary zeal of the soldiers prevalent at the start of the war, with an organised military policy. Having a centralised command, ordering the complete priority of the economy for arms production, reduces needs on foreign forces. Because the Moorish armies are crushed, the nationalists are isolated, only holding Castile and Gacilia, which eventually fall under Republican control in 1938.

Spain, which renames itself to the Iberian Union, as Catalonia and the Basque country become semi independent states, is a socialist country fundamentally different to that of the Soviet Union. It is democratic, and the workers have a huge say in the planning of production. Stalin is immediately hostile to the new workers republic, and this increases when Iberia condemns the Nazi-Soviet Pact as opportunistic and a completely betrayal of the socialist cause. It is also the only country that opens it's borders to Jewish refugees, who seek asylum in millions to escape the Nazi's.

History elsewhere in Europe largely continues on the same way for the next year or so. When Hitler invades Poland the allied powers declare war, and France falls within six weeks. However, a major difference is that Britain decides to surrender to the Nazi's. In our timeline, it was somewhat apparent that the communist threat had subsided somewhat, and the prime enemy for Anglo-French dominance in Europe was Hitler. This is why Churchill ultimately convinced parliament of the need for no surrender. However, with socialist Iberia right on the southern border of France, Churchill's violent anti-communism overturns the threat of Britain losing hegemony over Europe, and he supports Lord Halifax, who makes peace with Hitler and Mussolini, in exchange for light terms.

Hitler largely ignores Spain to focus on the Soviet Union, whilst Mussolini attempts to invade the Iberian Peninsula, knowing how isolated it is on the international scene. However, the Italian's have poor luck, their naval invasion is a failure, and they are unable to make any sufficient progress with the Spanish waging a constant guerrilla war. In addition, numerous divisions mutiny, and Mussolini is forced to abort the operation. His regime survives for another 15 years.

Due to the obsessive ethnic cleansing of eastern Europe, Hitler's forces are bound to loose against the Russian's, having united all of his enemies firmly against him. The Eastern Front proceeds similar to this timeline, however, with Britain out of the war and the American's too busy fighting Japan, the Soviets manage to occupy all of Germany, and start to proceed towards France. The British and Americans swoop in at the last minute, to liberate France before the Soviets do, after Hitler has already surrendered.

The Iberian Union becomes the most progressive state in Europe. Led by their second president, Andres Nin of the Workers Party of Marxist Unification (POUM), they easily repair the war damage with the help of millions of Jewish, Italian, and German immigrants striving to give back to the country that did so much to help them. They condemn the German expulsions as a retaliatory genocide, adding that the German people are not the Nazis, and campaign tirelessly for nuclear disarmament, de-colonisation, and international collaboration. A public single payer healthcare service is set up, millions of new council houses are built, agriculture is collectivised and modernised using up to date technology, and the Catalans and Basques are given their own republics, to co-exist with Spain within the Iberian Union. It is also a place of free expression, where censorship is very mild compared to the rest of the continent. It becomes one of the fastest growing economies in Europe, unemployment virtually zero, a pioneer in science and technology, a fast emerging great power, and boasting one of the highest qualities of life in the world, comparing favourably with the likes of Britain and Sweden.

Relations with Stalin are very cold, with him accusing Spain of revisionism whilst Spain retorts and says that he has completely betrayed the socialist cause. Iberia sides with Yugoslavia in the Stalin-Tito split, and the countries become close allies, co-operating on the military and economic front. Increased Democratic Socialist presence from Iberia leads to Milovan Djilas becoming President of Yugoslavia in 1953. Klement Gottwald of Czechoslovakia is also led into supporting the Iberian camp, and this leads Czechoslovakia to lend their support to defend Hungary from a Soviet invasion in 1956, leading almost to a full scale confrontation between Democratic Socialist/Trotskyist camp, and the Stalinist camp.

With Chile turning red in 73, and with increased prestige abroad, socialism largely conquers the globe. Capitalism's brief restoration in Russia is short lived, as the Trotskyists soon take over in the 1990s to overthrow Yeltsin, and Britain, having been a Republic since 1948, turns communist in 1987.
 
It would be an early set back for European fascists, however if the Republicans win then I could see Hitler invading or at least bombing Spain with Italian support after the Fall of France.
 

Arctofire

Banned
It would be an early set back for European fascists, however if the Republicans win then I could see Hitler invading or at least bombing Spain with Italian support after the Fall of France.

Spain wasn't part of Hiter's plan for Lebanstraum though. I still think he'd focus on the USSR and leave Spain to Mussolini. Also, even if they were to invade, they could very well be unsuccessful. Spain has the natural borders of the Pyrenees mountains, which make Blitzkreig far more difficult to pull off than the mostly flat land of eastern Europe and the low countries. They might start to invade but quickly realise that it is not worth the effort, and that Russia is a higher priority.
 

Marc

Donor
A Republican Spain is very likely to be seem as a major threat to Germany. Considering that Spain will almost certainly ally with France, Great Britain, and the Soviets. As for the Italians, A la Yugoslavia, Germany would get sucked, and bogged into Spain. (Tragic for the deaths, but a good thing for a quicker end to the hell on on Earth of Nazi Germany).
But perhaps more significantly, a failure in Spain might have significant effects in Germany itself.
 
Last edited:
What if in an alternate timeline, Andres Nin sharply denounces the war policy of the Popular Front government, and called for immediate revolution against the fascists and the overthrow of the bourgeois Republicans, calling them spineless and undeserving of the people's sacrifice? The decreased role of the PCE, as well as the POUM's more active role, allows it to gain positions in the government, and Largo Cabellero is increasingly drawn to their conclusions. The Republican Left, PSOE Right, and Stalinists are expelled from the government and Popular Front, and the new workers government re-organises the militias into a fighting army, combining the revolutionary zeal of the soldiers prevalent at the start of the war, with an organised military policy. Having a centralised command, ordering the complete priority of the economy for arms production, reduces needs on foreign forces. Because the Moorish armies are crushed, the nationalists are isolated, only holding Castile and Gacilia, which eventually fall under Republican control in 1938.

Several problems here. Are the PSOE Right, Liberals/Republicans, and Stalinists expected to just be twiddling their thumbs here? The POUM's purging and marginalization of everybody who isen't them basically shatters any possability of a broad unity on the Left, which IOTL came about as a response to the extra-legal actions on the part of the Right. This likely leads to right-leaning elements coalescing around a moderate-right cohalitions of the legitimate government, military leaders, ext. against the radicals and moves public sympathy in the conservative direction (Including possible outside support by the liberal democracies) and triggers the Stalinist left, with Soviet funds and supplies, to fight for their lives as well. If anything, the Civil War would only be extended and rendered more destructive/multilaterial.
 

Arctofire

Banned
Several problems here. Are the PSOE Right, Liberals/Republicans, and Stalinists expected to just be twiddling their thumbs here? The POUM's purging and marginalization of everybody who isen't them basically shatters any possability of a broad unity on the Left, which IOTL came about as a response to the extra-legal actions on the part of the Right. This likely leads to right-leaning elements coalescing around a moderate-right cohalitions of the legitimate government, military leaders, ext. against the radicals and moves public sympathy in the conservative direction (Including possible outside support by the liberal democracies) and triggers the Stalinist left, with Soviet funds and supplies, to fight for their lives as well. If anything, the Civil War would only be extended and rendered more destructive/multilaterial.

Yeah, because they totally got tons of support from the western powers didn't they? *sarcasm*

All of this does not add up to facts. The right republicans had literally no support from the populace. The overwhelming majority of the people of Spain were in favor of revolution, with the CNT and the POUM being the forces with the most support and enthusiasm.
 
I'm having a little trouble trying to understand how the POUM, at best a splinter minority party in the constellation that was the Spanish Left, could plausibly become so prominent. The only figure I can find for membership suggests at most 30,000 in 1936, so I'm interested in where your figure of 70,000 comes from.

The biggest problem here is that you've made a sweeping claim that the vast majority of Spanish people were in favour of revolution [presumably discounting all the people supporting the Nationalists] which I'm not sure is rooted in the reality of events. The various Republican factions definitely fluctuated in support throughout the period, and while there was as you claim a growing appetite for revolution in some sections of society but there was a reaction against it in others. One of the reasons the PCE became more powerful during this period is that it presented an ordered, structured, contrast to what some saw as the chaos of factions like the Anarchists and the POUM. Also, in 1936 the various Republican factions, the PSOE Right, and others did have their own regional strongholds and loyal groups - the Assaultos, the armed police important in supporting the Republican cause in the early months of chaos, were largely loyal to the various Republican groups and not the anarchists or the POUM. If Nin tries to seize power he runs the risk of fracturing the Republican side at a critical stage.

Secondly, I'm not sure how the POUM comes to power in your scenario. Suppose Nin, as you suggest, denounces the sitting government. Isn't he just a minority crank raising a needless protest in a time of emergency? How does he garner effective support for expelling groups ranging from the Republicans to the PCE? Especially as the Republicans hold many of the positions of power in the Government? More importantly, how does he convince the anarchist powerbrokers like the UGT and CNT to back him and his faction? Conceivably the best he can hope for is maybe wielding more power in the Cabellero Government that is likely to come in as OTL via popular pressure, and here the POUM would just be one voice among many.

Finally, I think you are underestimating the negative impact of pushing out the PCE. Although they were small, their influence was because they represented the Soviet Union. Marginalizing the PCE runs the risk of turning off that source of material and aid. Yes the Soviets swindled the Republicans and took their gold reserves, but they were still the only international group providing arms and equipment in any real numbers. More than that, without the wider Comintern the International Brigades never occur. Yes, you'd get individuals and small groups, like Orwell, turning up of their own volition, but you won't get the tens of thousands the Comintern could mobilize. The morale impact of these brigades, more than there combat potential, was a real asset to the Republican cause. Essentially by having the POUM take over you piss off Moscow, which can hide behind the International Non-Intervention agreement and not provide help, without making the Republicans easier for the British/French/Americans/etc to support.
 

Arctofire

Banned
I'm having a little trouble trying to understand how the POUM, at best a splinter minority party in the constellation that was the Spanish Left, could plausibly become so prominent. The only figure I can find for membership suggests at most 30,000 in 1936, so I'm interested in where your figure of 70,000 comes from.

The biggest problem here is that you've made a sweeping claim that the vast majority of Spanish people were in favour of revolution [presumably discounting all the people supporting the Nationalists] which I'm not sure is rooted in the reality of events. The various Republican factions definitely fluctuated in support throughout the period, and while there was as you claim a growing appetite for revolution in some sections of society but there was a reaction against it in others. One of the reasons the PCE became more powerful during this period is that it presented an ordered, structured, contrast to what some saw as the chaos of factions like the Anarchists and the POUM. Also, in 1936 the various Republican factions, the PSOE Right, and others did have their own regional strongholds and loyal groups - the Assaultos, the armed police important in supporting the Republican cause in the early months of chaos, were largely loyal to the various Republican groups and not the anarchists or the POUM. If Nin tries to seize power he runs the risk of fracturing the Republican side at a critical stage.

Secondly, I'm not sure how the POUM comes to power in your scenario. Suppose Nin, as you suggest, denounces the sitting government. Isn't he just a minority crank raising a needless protest in a time of emergency? How does he garner effective support for expelling groups ranging from the Republicans to the PCE? Especially as the Republicans hold many of the positions of power in the Government? More importantly, how does he convince the anarchist powerbrokers like the UGT and CNT to back him and his faction? Conceivably the best he can hope for is maybe wielding more power in the Cabellero Government that is likely to come in as OTL via popular pressure, and here the POUM would just be one voice among many.

Finally, I think you are underestimating the negative impact of pushing out the PCE. Although they were small, their influence was because they represented the Soviet Union. Marginalizing the PCE runs the risk of turning off that source of material and aid. Yes the Soviets swindled the Republicans and took their gold reserves, but they were still the only international group providing arms and equipment in any real numbers. More than that, without the wider Comintern the International Brigades never occur. Yes, you'd get individuals and small groups, like Orwell, turning up of their own volition, but you won't get the tens of thousands the Comintern could mobilize. The morale impact of these brigades, more than there combat potential, was a real asset to the Republican cause. Essentially by having the POUM take over you piss off Moscow, which can hide behind the International Non-Intervention agreement and not provide help, without making the Republicans easier for the British/French/Americans/etc to support.

The people who supported the nationalists were very few in number, virtually none of the working class. Despite the result of the 1936 elections being pretty neck to neck, the establishment will 'always' have a significant advantage against the underdog. The campaign expenditure for the nationalists was 5 times more than the Republicans, and yet the Popular Front still won. Most people voting Nationalist did so sub-consciously and in the spur of the moment, and would most definitely have withdrawn any support they'd had for them when they rounded up, tortured, and shot civilians as well as seeking to end democracy. Nationalist soldiers in most cases fought because they didn't have a choice. An election is also just snapshot of actual public opinion, and only around 70% of the population voted at all. It is similar to modern elections, why do people so often vote against what is in their best interests by voting Conservative in Britain for example? It's because lots of people aren't invested in politics, and these tend to be the people who either don't vote, or vote how they are told to vote by the establishment. However, military coups and the threat of dictatorship almost always unite the populace overwhelmingly on the side of democracy.

During the July Days, there was major conflict between the right wing Republican government and the grassroots CNT, UGT, and POUM. Barcelona more than anywhere had completely abolished capitalism, and destroying the communes and re-asserting government and capitalist control greatly demoralised the Republican cause. The working classes overwhelmingly supported the CNT and collectives, and had the POUM managed to persuade the CNT, UGT, PSOE left, and the Socialist and Libertarian Youth organisations, they would have had complete support from the populace, who wanted to completely do away with capitalism to a greater or lesser extent depending on area.

The lack of arms from the Soviet Union would be a disadvantage yes, but the USSR in doing that made it conditional on essentially maintaining capitalism in Spain. Weapons were withdrawn from the populace post 1937 and only given out to the official Republican army. When numerous leftists have been tortured and executed by the side you are fighting for, what difference does it make who's side you're on if they're both the same? This is the conclusion many made and it led to many desertions.

If the Navy swoops in at the start of the war to destroy the Moorish invasion, then the rest of the war would have been much easier for the Republicans, as they really only have to deal with Castile and western Spain, which is isolated and surrounded. If the POUM had followed the approach of the PCE with a centralised army, but fought the war on an anti-capitalist basis, that would have bolstered morale considerably. They also could have produced their own ammunition factories in Spain, rather than the USSR making them entirely dependent on their aid.

If the Communist International refused to help the Spanish, they would be exposed and Stalin would be considered a traitor to the revolution. If initially International Brigades are set up, I doubt the whole thing would just stop if the Kremlin withdrew its support, rather support for the Kremlin would dwindle.
 
Last edited:
The Falange had a relatively small base of support but they weren't the critical element of the Nationalists. The Republicans lost because of failure to cooperate and because their Red Terror alienated moderate Catholics both in Spain and around the world who would otherwise be neutral (something which also contributed to lack of international support).
 
Yeah, because they totally got tons of support from the western powers didn't they? *sarcasm*

All of this does not add up to facts. The right republicans had literally no support from the populace. The overwhelming majority of the people of Spain were in favor of revolution, with the CNT and the POUM being the forces with the most support and enthusiasm.

Methinks you have swallowed more than a few sips of the cherry Kool-aid. I'm not denying the assorted Socialist factions had quite a bit of support, but not only was part of this the result of their aligning with the legitiment government (whom they did subsume) but also split between many competing factions and ideologies who would have balked at a purist, purging force such as you suggested. The Nationalists were far better at forging a coalition to fight as a united front, and if the moderates are getting bullets from the Left in a wave of Red terror are likely to join with those who are willing to accomidate them. This includes local police, loyalist military units, ect. who in our timeline instead fought the coup attempt, and with the Left going on a radical rampage and NOT tainting the Liberal-Republican cause with the red and black brush of anarchism the political calculus for the Western Democracies in terms of deciding on their involvement.

You're chucking a bolder into the pond and claiming it won't make ripples
 
A Republican Spain is very likely to be seem as a major threat to Germany. Considering that Spain will almost certainly ally with France, Great Britain, and the Soviets. ...

I don't see anything certain there. It depends on who the leaders of the moment are, how distracted Germany/Hitler are, ect... OTL the Spanish government owed the Axis a great deal of favor, but gave little support. Cant see any automatic support for France.

If the Axis do invade a Spanish republic its going to be the napoleonic intervention redux. Lots of irregular warfare, massacres, and British led Allied incursions. A bleeding would for the Axis, possibly losing them the war sooner.
 

Arctofire

Banned
Methinks you have swallowed more than a few sips of the cherry Kool-aid. I'm not denying the assorted Socialist factions had quite a bit of support, but not only was part of this the result of their aligning with the legitiment government (whom they did subsume) but also split between many competing factions and ideologies who would have balked at a purist, purging force such as you suggested. The Nationalists were far better at forging a coalition to fight as a united front, and if the moderates are getting bullets from the Left in a wave of Red terror are likely to join with those who are willing to accomidate them. This includes local police, loyalist military units, ect. who in our timeline instead fought the coup attempt, and with the Left going on a radical rampage and NOT tainting the Liberal-Republican cause with the red and black brush of anarchism the political calculus for the Western Democracies in terms of deciding on their involvement.

You're chucking a bolder into the pond and claiming it won't make ripples

Of course it would make ripples, a socialist Spain would shake the world!
 

Arctofire

Banned
A Republican Spain is very likely to be seem as a major threat to Germany. Considering that Spain will almost certainly ally with France, Great Britain, and the Soviets. As for the Italians, A la Yugoslavia, Germany would get sucked, and bogged into Spain. (Tragic for the deaths, but a good thing for a quicker end to the hell on on Earth of Nazi Germany).
But perhaps more significantly, a failure in Spain might have significant effects in Germany itself.

Well I think because of this, Hitler would want to focus on the USSR after lack of success on the Spanish front.
 
The last way I want to sound is like an apologist for Franco, but as bad as he and his ilk were I've long held a similarly dim view of the Republican side. The country seemed to be going down one authoritarian path, and the backlash against it sent them down one governed by a different ideology. If the Republicans win, does Spain go communist?
 

Arctofire

Banned
The last way I want to sound is like an apologist for Franco, but as bad as he and his ilk were I've long held a similarly dim view of the Republican side. The country seemed to be going down one authoritarian path, and the backlash against it sent them down one governed by a different ideology. If the Republicans win, does Spain go communist?

Yes, but democratic communist, how Karl Marx and Leon Trotsky intended it to be.
 
The last way I want to sound is like an apologist for Franco, but as bad as he and his ilk were I've long held a similarly dim view of the Republican side. The country seemed to be going down one authoritarian path, and the backlash against it sent them down one governed by a different ideology. If the Republicans win, does Spain go communist?
The winning leftist forces turn the guns on each other and get steamrolled by Germany and Italy after the Fall of France, who instate a fascist collaborator government and use Spain to attack Gibraltar. Landings in southern Spain become part of alt-Operation Torch in 1942 and 1943, and after the war Spain is a liberal republic and NATO member, with both the far-left and far-right marginalized thanks to CIA meddling.
 

Arctofire

Banned
The winning leftist forces turn the guns on each other and get steamrolled by Germany and Italy after the Fall of France, who instate a fascist collaborator government and use Spain to attack Gibraltar. Landings in southern Spain become part of alt-Operation Torch in 1942 and 1943, and after the war Spain is a liberal republic and NATO member, with both the far-left and far-right marginalized thanks to CIA meddling.

You gravely seem to underestimate the difficulty of invading Spain, and the priorities of the German and Italian forces.
 

Marc

Donor
Well I think because of this, Hitler would want to focus on the USSR after lack of success on the Spanish front.

It might actually act as a short term (a year or so) delay in Hitler's ambitions, as the Wehrmacht digests what caused that level of operational failure.
 
Top