Dr. Strangelove
Banned
Yet the conditions in 1960 are not the same as 1945.
Well, if you want anarchist galore, *points to sig*
Republican Victory in Spanish Civil War
- Thread starter General Mung Beans
- Start date
Yet the conditions in 1960 are not the same as 1945.
Well, if you want anarchist galore, *points to sig*
General Mung Beans
Banned
Yet the conditions in 1960 are not the same as 1945.
Well, if you want anarchist galore, *points to sig*
It's quite plausible that conditions may arise which would result in a Communist revolution.
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
Do tell such conditions. But I'd like to see that commie revolution succeding in a country with many other political factions that would unite against the commies (from anarchists to fascists), with Britain and America having a heavy interest in such communist revolution not succeeding and the Soviet Union UTTERLY, COMPLETELY unable to provide any help whatsoever to the local communists.
Now, if you think that a communist revolution would succeed in such conditions, I'll have to ask you why Italy never turned red, seeing how italian communists were infinitely more powerful and united than the spanish communists never dreamed to be, and could get an easier soviet support through Yugoslavia.
Oh, and the word "plausible" is normally applied to, well, plausible situations.
General Mung Beans
Banned
Like Italy's?
The USA didn't have a strong Communist party. Also it may happen it depends on the place, the time, the people and a good matter of chance thrown in.
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
Exactly. And Spain 1945 is neither the place, the time or the people, with or without chance.
maverick
Banned
It'd say Spain between 1938 and 1975 is not the place...neither is Spain after 1975 though...
Goldstein
Banned
I can understand why General Mung Beans is resisting to believe that a commie Spain is unlikely... because a commie Spain is too awesome as a scenario, to refuse to believe in such a posibility. At least, that's my position, and I think it all depends on what makes the republican Spain to win the war.
It's true that Stalin was never really interested in turning Spain in a Soviet puppet, but I use to consider that having Stalin changing his mind and offering more material support to the republican side, is the most plausible way of having a republican victory in the SCW.
There's another chance for the republican side: managing to receive more support from the democratic powers... then, the SCW could have ignited an earlier WWII.
IMO, the analysis made by Dr.Strangelove is accurate only in the case of both sides receiving a foreing support similar to OTL.
It's true that Stalin was never really interested in turning Spain in a Soviet puppet, but I use to consider that having Stalin changing his mind and offering more material support to the republican side, is the most plausible way of having a republican victory in the SCW.
There's another chance for the republican side: managing to receive more support from the democratic powers... then, the SCW could have ignited an earlier WWII.
IMO, the analysis made by Dr.Strangelove is accurate only in the case of both sides receiving a foreing support similar to OTL.
Republican SCW Victory
I refreshed my memory of the players and issues via Wiki, and the prospects of Republican victory are pretty grim, mainly because Franco got substantial Italian and German support throughout the SCW while the French, British, and others whistled in the dark with their Non-Intervention Committee which was fairly effective at keeping the Republicans from getting any substantial aid.
Franco's people went absolutely nuts the first three months while the militias scrambled to resist with a lot of poorly-armed and equipped amateurs up against the Moors and Regular army and got mowed down.
The Spanish Republic suffered from several key issues:
I refreshed my memory of the players and issues via Wiki, and the prospects of Republican victory are pretty grim, mainly because Franco got substantial Italian and German support throughout the SCW while the French, British, and others whistled in the dark with their Non-Intervention Committee which was fairly effective at keeping the Republicans from getting any substantial aid.
Franco's people went absolutely nuts the first three months while the militias scrambled to resist with a lot of poorly-armed and equipped amateurs up against the Moors and Regular army and got mowed down.
The Spanish Republic suffered from several key issues:
- Political disunity due to an anthill mob of democrats, socialists, anarchists, Communists, and separatist parties who wanted cultural autonomy. The funny part is that the folks who voted were moderate but practically every party had a private militia with trigger-happy partisans who liked to indulge in extrajudicial shootings.
- A lot of enthusiastic revolutionary socialists and anarchists who wanted to make the Revolution happen NOW, 100%.
- The gutting of the middle of their army- NCO's , experienced officers, etc as well as many of the better Guardia Civil units who leaned right politically once Franco started his coup.
- The folks with the most detailed plan of action were the Communists and accepting their help was a poison pill that prevented any serious recognition by the rest of the world and loss of legitimacy at home as well.
- Spain had some native industry, but no local designs and firms to make more sophisticated arms, like tanks and aircraft. With all the revolutionary chaos going on and various unions having brawls and gunfights over who runs the shop floor made it impossible to get any useful domestic wartime production.
Of course if the Germanss need to invade and hold down Spain thats a massive butterfly all by itself...
You're all aware that there is a massive difference between a victory for the Republicans in Spain and a victory for the communists?
Spain in 1936 like Libya today?
For Republican Spain to win they would have had to have done it quickly. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility, the events of July 1936 were extremely difficult to predict. Oviedo Seville and Saragossa are all examples of cities which with slightly different turn of events would have been held by the Republic. The communists in 1936 were relatively weak in Spain, so had the uprising been unsuccessful (there is a well established TL around with this scenario) then some sort of Republican government would have endured, though in what form is difficult to predict.
Once the foreign legion were across the straits and advancing towards Madrid then the Republic in its existing form was over and IMHO the only thing that would have stopped a Nationalist victory would have been some substantial changes on the international scene allowing either greater soviet involvement or some greater intervention or support on the Franco-British side. Even then, given the tenacity with which Franco pursued the war, I can't see a solution (ie Republican victory) without a major power being prepared to put troops on the ground although there could have been the Negrin solution, keeping the civil war going until a more general conflict broke out, but even had that happened in OTL, eg perhaps if the Republic hadn't launched The Ebro offensive but instead concentrated on defending Catalonia, can anyone realistically see the Allies doing a lot in Spain in 1939 with the political leadership they had then?
Ironically I think there is a sort of parallel with the existing situation in Libya where the initial rebellion has been sporadically successful, but here the Nato forces are playing the part that the Italians and Germans did in 1936. Before anyone explodes in outrage or accuses me of fascism, the parallels are in no way exact and do not relate to the legitimacy of the regimes, but just to the military and strategic situations.
For Republican Spain to win they would have had to have done it quickly. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility, the events of July 1936 were extremely difficult to predict. Oviedo Seville and Saragossa are all examples of cities which with slightly different turn of events would have been held by the Republic. The communists in 1936 were relatively weak in Spain, so had the uprising been unsuccessful (there is a well established TL around with this scenario) then some sort of Republican government would have endured, though in what form is difficult to predict.
Once the foreign legion were across the straits and advancing towards Madrid then the Republic in its existing form was over and IMHO the only thing that would have stopped a Nationalist victory would have been some substantial changes on the international scene allowing either greater soviet involvement or some greater intervention or support on the Franco-British side. Even then, given the tenacity with which Franco pursued the war, I can't see a solution (ie Republican victory) without a major power being prepared to put troops on the ground although there could have been the Negrin solution, keeping the civil war going until a more general conflict broke out, but even had that happened in OTL, eg perhaps if the Republic hadn't launched The Ebro offensive but instead concentrated on defending Catalonia, can anyone realistically see the Allies doing a lot in Spain in 1939 with the political leadership they had then?
Ironically I think there is a sort of parallel with the existing situation in Libya where the initial rebellion has been sporadically successful, but here the Nato forces are playing the part that the Italians and Germans did in 1936. Before anyone explodes in outrage or accuses me of fascism, the parallels are in no way exact and do not relate to the legitimacy of the regimes, but just to the military and strategic situations.
BlairWitch749
Banned
A republican or communist victory for spain will lead to a sequence where the axis invade. Hitler was ALL about revenge, and a failure in Spain would not sit well with him or Benny, when France goes down, Republican Spain is attacked shortly after... if Spain is in the commitern, it is delayed till barbarossa
Depends on when/how the Republicans win, really.
It's certainly possible that a Republican win could be accompanied by a Communist takeover, since the Communists were a pretty significant faction within the broader Republican cause (and one that grew larger over time thanks to the influence of the USSR). However, it's also quite plausible than the democratic factions win the internal power struggle among the Republicans, or that one of the other groups like the Anarchists somehow winds up on top of the pile at the end of the day. You could even have a two-part Spanish Civil War with Republicans vs. Nationalists, and then a civil war among the various Republican factions once the Nationalists are beaten.
As a side note, the Nationalists were also a bit looser of a coalition than most credit them for, mostly because the fascists did a very good job of keeping the monarchists and other groups aligned with them firmly subordinated, compared to the frequent factional infighting within the Republican camp.
I have to disagree, although the Nationalists were a coalition they were a very tightly controlled one, by Franco. They, like the Republicans had their 1937 moment but it resulted in Franco forcibly merging the falangists with the carlists, and although there was some trouble it was nothing like the May Days in Barcelona, had Jose Antonio Primo de Rivera not been stuck in Republican territory, again an example of how capriciously unpredictable the first few days of the war were, things might have been a bit more different as he would have been another leader focus.