I was thinking of Russia ending up in total anarchy for at least 10 years... So until 1928. Russia is even more crippled and until then, this Turkey needs a fair deal with the British at least. it does not guarantee Turkish rule over Azerbaijan but it does help them to use their time right.
In that case, here's an idea: If we push the POD far enough before WW1, even if it means going into pre-1900, then we'd have to make Marxism of the RSDLP type (particularly the Bolshevik sub-type) more of a major thing in Ottoman nationalist circles. This would also need a split in the CUP to make it work. Once the ball gets rolling, what we end up having is the eventual replacement of the Ottoman Empire by a Communist state before Russia, so instead of Moscow as the center of international Communism we'd have Konstantiniyye as the center instead. So instead of a Soviet Union we'd have instead a Shuravite Union (since IOTL the term "shura" was used in Central Asia as one way to translate the Russian word "soviet"). It would also help that for many of the ethnic minorities most of their nationalist parties were leaning towards the progressive/socialist end of things anyway, so it would not be that hard to make the leap.