Republic on the Horizon: A Steppe Invasion of Pre-Imperial Rome

The PoD would occur in the Western Steppe Region, near modern Ukraine and Russia, during the time of the Punic Wars. It would involve a steppe army of horse-archers coming into contact with Roman armies during times of war with Carthage.

This timeline would involve a steppe army following the path of the IOT Hunnic invasion. The invaders would disrupt the Germanic tribes, starting a domino effect very similar to that caused by the Huns. This would progress until Celtic and Gallic tribes began to make their way into the Italian and Iberian peninsulas. Depending on when in the course of the Punic Wars this started, I see it going one of a number of ways. If the tribes were to land in Italy during the Second Punic War, while Hannibal remained there, I highly doubt that Rome would have survived. It would most likely be conquered by the tribesmen in the North, and by Hannibal in the South. Even if the invasion were to come at a time in which Rome had the upper hand in the conflict, there is little chance that they could fend off the tribes in the north and the Carthaginians in the south. After Rome fell to the Barbarians, I predict a kingdom similar to Odoacer's, or any of the other post-Imperial kingdoms that spring up IOT to govern the peninsula temporarily. After Rome fell, the barbarians would be unlikely to extend past Sicily without advanced naval capabilities.

Now to the Iberian peninsula. I predict a steamrolling of Carthaginian Spain, and Barbarian army looking across the Straight of Gibraltar within two or three campaign seasons. Now is the moment in which the exact moment of the PoD is important. If the invasion occurs in the first or early Punic war, Carthage would, most likely, be able to use their navy to keep the barbarians out of Africa. If it is during the later second or third Punic war, I predict the fall of Carthage as well. I predict the Antigonid Macedonians and the Seleucids defending the Eastern Mediterranean, but perhaps losing some territory in Northern Anatolia.

So far, I have operated under the assumption that either a) the Steppe invaders settle somewhere in Northern or Central Europe, or b) said invaders are slowly making their way South, subjugating or massacring all who do not flee before them. If we can assume the second to be true, around the time of the capture of Carthaginian Spain, the Steppe tribe will begin to reach the extent of the former Roman Republic. Having nowhere to go, the Gallic, Celtic, and Germanic tribes in Italy and Iberia would be completely subjugated. Once again, if the Carthaginian navy was able to end the European barbarian advance, it would be able to end that of the Steppe tribes as well. I will end the speculation at a united Western Mediterranean Europe under steppe nomadic leadership, similar to the Xiongnu in Manchuria, or the Parthians in Persia.
 
No stirrups to give them a military advantage.

I'm by no means a horsemanship expert, but I've read many times that the alleged "stirrup revolution" is kinda overrated. It's a very useful tool for horse mounting, no one doubts this, but what's disputed is how impactful it really was in the adoption of new tactics or even strategies by battle cavalry, or even in the consolidation of European Medieval feudalism. The lack of stirrups hardly impeded countless generations of horse-based nations, as early as the Medians, the pre-Achaemenid Persians (and also the Parthians and many other Iranian groups), Scythians, Sarmatians, and so forth, long before the Avars "popularized" it. The Cataphracts (as heavy cavalry), horse archers and whatever kind of light cavalry comes to your mind in B.C. eras owed nothing to the stirrups to have battlefield advantage.

Now, regarding the OP, perhaps I'm confusing the dates, but I suspect the Scythians were the dominant "nomad empire" during the Classical Era in the Pontic Steppe, and were overthrown by the Sarmatians only in the 2nd Century C.E. if I recall correctly. So, perhaps you can get a more consolidated Scythian empire to penetrate inside Pannonia (at the time controled by... Dacians, Illyrians and Celtic tribes?) and from there launch themselves upon the Mediterranean civilizations. The way I can see them being rather successful is if they somehow take advantage of the Late Republican Civil Wars. During the Punic Wars I think it's a bit tad too early without massive continental-wide butterflies.

Regarding other Asian peoples, I'm not sure. The Huns, for example, were the very first non-Iranian group to come to Europe that we know about, and they (if we accept the Xiongnu theory) were only expelled from eastern Asia much later than the Punic Wars.
 
I suppose it"s already Sarmatians. No Germanic tribes in their way yet. OTL, Dacians knew how to deal , them. Weaker Dacians allow for Sarmatian penetration, but they would not unsettle Illyrians. The Goths of OTL had already been on the move. Dacians as well as Illyrians would rather be dominated by a new foreign ruling group than migrate; and rulers from the steppe would most likely assimilate, like the Bosporans did. Hell, maybe this happened OTL, for we don't know much about Dacian state-building. Also, the Iazyges in Pannonia were obviously Sarmatians who had broke through and not assimilate because they found a suitable Spot for nomadism.

So, the question you need to answer is why a steppe invasion would destabilise Eastern Europe when such events did not achieve this IOTL.
 
I suppose it"s already Sarmatians. No Germanic tribes in their way yet. OTL, Dacians knew how to deal , them. Weaker Dacians allow for Sarmatian penetration, but they would not unsettle Illyrians. The Goths of OTL had already been on the move. Dacians as well as Illyrians would rather be dominated by a new foreign ruling group than migrate; and rulers from the steppe would most likely assimilate, like the Bosporans did. Hell, maybe this happened OTL, for we don't know much about Dacian state-building. Also, the Iazyges in Pannonia were obviously Sarmatians who had broke through and not assimilate because they found a suitable Spot for nomadism.

So, the question you need to answer is why a steppe invasion would destabilise Eastern Europe when such events did not achieve this IOTL.

That's what I was thinking, Salvador. The Iazyges were already presented during the Marcommanic Wars, and the Sarmatians warred various times with the Romans (until their final defeat by Constantine in late 3rd Century). Never did they presented a civilization-wide threat to the Roman/Mediterranean domination.

I'm having a hard time imagining how a very early steppe group of nomads might successfully dislodge the sedentary nations of the Mediterranean. Now that I think about it... let's try to imagine what factors allowed, for example, a Hunnic dominance in the lands beyond Roman empire, or the Avars in Pannonia. I guess that OP is trying to transplant these considerations into the Classical Era, which is hard enough. Besides, regarding the Roman Republic itself (with Marian or pre-Marian legions), on one hand they survived the onslaught of the Gallic and Cimbrian invasions, but we can somewhat attest that their heavy infantry was at disadvantage against a horse-archery dependent military force (as the defeats against the Parthians during the final decades of the Republic demonstrate). If these nomads somehow break through Pannonia and Illyria, penetrating Gallia Cisalpina, they might wreak some havoc before the Romans adapt to their tactics. Nevertheless, I doubt that they succeed in going as far as Hispania.

Admittelly, it's a very interesting scenario: Polybian Roman legions vs. Hannibalian Carthaginians and their respective alliances being interrupted by a surge of horse-mounted barbarians from Asia. Give enought effort, this scenario could be pushed from ASB levels into a rather fun TL
 
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